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Red Sox vs Yankees AL Wild Card Game 3 Betting Preview
The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees meet Thursday night at Yankee Stadium for a decisive winner-take-all Game 3 of the AL Wild Card series. Each side grabbed one win in Boston and New York, setting up a high-stakes rubber match. Both clubs turn to rookies on the mound: left-hander Connelly Early for Boston and right-hander Cam Schlittler for New York. The winner advances to face Toronto in the ALDS.
After splitting the first two games, both teams showed their grit. Jazz Chisholm Jr. electrified the Yankees’ win in Game 2 with a clutch eighth-inning run scored, while Trevor Story drove in all three Red Sox runs with a homer and key hits.
Opening odds: Yankees -161, Red Sox +135, total set at 8 runs.
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Line Movement and Odds
- Opening line: Yankees -161, Total 8.0
- Current line: Yankees remain -161 favorites, Red Sox +135 underdogs. Runline sits at Yankees -1.5 (+135), Boston +1.5 (-162).
- Total: 8.0 runs, shaded to the under (-120).
The betting market tilts toward New York, with over 60% of tickets backing the Yankees moneyline. However, sharper money is trickling on Boston +135, seeing value in a short series where variance is high.
Standouts to watch:
• Ben Rice homered in Game 2 and continues to be a postseason spark.
• Trevor Story has owned this rivalry lately, with 3 RBIs and a homer on Wednesday.
• Cam Schlittler struck out nine in seven shutout innings vs. Baltimore to close the regular season.
• Connelly Early owns a 2.33 ERA across four starts, showing poise in his MLB debut season.
Matchup Breakdown
Red Sox Outlook
Boston leans on timely hitting and a bullpen-heavy approach. Their doubles-heavy offense ranks among the best at creating scoring chances. With Trevor Story swinging hot, Alex Bregman and Jarren Duran adding depth, and Early’s command limiting walks, Boston has a real path to grind this out. The key: surviving the middle innings after Early hands it off.
Yankees Outlook
New York’s identity is power. They led MLB in homers and slugging, and their lineup can change the game in one swing. Aaron Judge and Ben Rice carry the thunder, while Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s speed adds chaos. On the mound, Schlittler has been steady since July and carries confidence into this start. If the Yankees hit an early homer and Schlittler handles Boston’s lefty bats, New York controls the pace.
Key Battle: Rookie Composure on the Mound
Neither Early nor Schlittler has playoff experience, making composure crucial. Whoever handles the moment and keeps walks down will give their bullpen a smoother path.
Injuries and Conditions
| Boston Red Sox | New York Yankees |
|---|---|
| SP Lucas Giolito (elbow) – out for postseason | No major new injuries reported |
| Relievers taxed after Game 2 (six pitchers used) | Bullpen rested with limited usage Wednesday |
Weather: Overcast skies with a light breeze at Yankee Stadium. Slightly pitcher-friendly conditions.
Best Bets and Prediction
This is a true toss-up with both teams turning to rookies. Boston’s bullpen workload looms large after six relievers in Game 2, while New York has a fresher pen. The Yankees’ power at home and Schlittler’s late-season dominance give them the edge.
- Pick: Yankees moneyline -161
- Projected score: Yankees 5, Red Sox 3
- Reasoning: Bullpen fatigue hurts Boston. New York’s depth and power tilt the scales.
- Secondary lean: Under 8.0, tied to rookie pitchers limiting early runs.
For more postseason breakdowns, follow our latest MLB Game Forecasts.
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| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Yankees ML -161 |
| Confidence | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Score | Yankees 5, Red Sox 3 |
| Runline Lean | Red Sox +1.5 (-162) |
| Total Lean | Under 8.0 (-120) |
| Market Split | 61% bets Yankees ML, 54% money on Red Sox (sharp lean BOS) |
Handicappers and Picks
October baseball is where handicappers earn their stripes. The Leaderboard showcases who’s running hot across MLB and all major sports. For premium postseason action, our Service Plays deliver expert breakdowns on sides, totals, and props. Bettors looking for added value should also hit our Free MLB Picks for daily angles during the playoffs. New to the market? Our Bettors Handbook is your blueprint for bankroll management in high-pressure spots. Whether you tail sharp MLB minds or chart your own plays, ScoresAndStats has the tools to keep you ahead this postseason.
