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Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Game 4 WNBA Finals Betting Preview
The Las Vegas Aces are one win away from cementing a dynasty as they head to Phoenix for Game 4 of the WNBA Finals against the Phoenix Mercury on Friday night. Up 3-0 in the league’s first best-of-seven Finals, the Aces can claim their third championship in four years with another win.
Smarter Picks, Better Results
Today’s Plays. Tomorrow’s Profits.
The Aces opened as -8.5 favorites on the road (opened -7.5) with the moneyline around -340 and the total set at 169.5 (up from 168). Las Vegas has dominated the series — and much of the season — while Phoenix fights to avoid a sweep despite losing forward Satou Sabally to a concussion. You can review how both teams have performed in recent WNBA game results at ScoresAndStats for deeper context on this postseason run.
Want smarter basketball picks for the WNBA Finals? See the latest handicappers leaderboard →
Line Movement and Odds
The Aces opened -7.5 and were quickly bet up to -8.5 with 68% of public tickets backing Las Vegas. However, 55% of the sharp money is reportedly on Phoenix to cover, indicating some buyback on the home dog. The total ticked up slightly to 169.5 with bettors expecting another high-paced matchup after Game 3’s 90-88 finish.
A’ja Wilson is the clear Finals MVP favorite, averaging 27.6 points and 12.7 rebounds this series. Her 34-point double-double in Game 3 sealed the Aces’ win on a last-second jumper.
“They’ve just built a tremendous amount of trust with each other,” said Aces coach Becky Hammon. “Our group has become really good at self-adjustments in the game.”
Matchup Breakdown
Las Vegas Aces Outlook:
The Aces’ offense continues to flow through Wilson, who’s dominated inside and out. Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young have provided balance, while Kelsey Plum’s perimeter shooting stretches defenses. Las Vegas has won six of seven meetings with Phoenix this year and is 24-3 in its last 27 overall. The Aces’ defense has tightened late in games, holding the Mercury to 40.9% shooting across the Finals.
Phoenix Mercury Outlook:
Without Satou Sabally, Phoenix loses its leading scorer and a key rebounder. DeWanna Bonner (25 points, 10 rebounds in Game 3) and Alyssa Thomas (14 points, 12 rebounds) will shoulder most of the load. Thomas’ defensive switch onto perimeter threats in Game 3 helped slow the Aces’ guards, and that adjustment likely continues. Phoenix must improve transition defense to stay alive.
Injuries and Conditions
| Las Vegas Aces | Phoenix Mercury |
|---|---|
| Riquna Williams – Out (Back) | Satou Sabally – Out (Concussion) |
| Kiah Stokes – Probable (Foot) | Brittney Griner – Probable (Knee) |
| Aces Injury Report | Mercury Injury Report |
Game played indoors at Footprint Center, no weather impact.
Best Bets and Prediction
Las Vegas has covered in four of its last five Finals games and has shown championship poise in closeouts. Phoenix has been competitive at home, but without Sabally, it’s hard to see where the offense comes from if Wilson dominates again. Expect another physical battle with the Aces’ experience prevailing.
Pick: Aces -8.5
Projected Final Score: Las Vegas 92, Phoenix 83
Best Bet: Aces -8.5
Lean: Over 169.5
For more WNBA Betting Insights and Game Forecasts, visit ScoresAndStats WNBA Previews.
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| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Las Vegas Aces -8.5 |
| Confidence Rating | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Score | Aces 92, Mercury 83 |
| Total Lean | Over 169.5 |
| Market Split | 68% bets Aces, 55% sharp money Mercury |
ScoresAndStats Handicappers and Picks
If you’re tracking sharp movement, ScoresAndStats’ Best Handicappers Leaderboard is the best place to follow winning trends. You’ll find expert records, ROI data, and verified performance from the sharpest bettors in the WNBA and beyond.
For even more betting action and analysis, head to the WNBA Service Plays section, where top-rated analysts post their daily premium picks.
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