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Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Match Preview
The Kansas City Chiefs are finding their rhythm just in time for a divisional showdown against the Las Vegas Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium. After a 0-2 start to the season, Patrick Mahomes and company have reeled off three wins in four games to pull even at 3-3. With the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos slightly ahead in the AFC West, Kansas City will look to climb back into the mix on Sunday.
Mahomes is once again playing like an MVP candidate. Over the last three weeks, he’s accounted for 10 total touchdowns and looks increasingly comfortable with his supporting cast. The Chiefs are coming off a confident 30-17 win against the Detroit Lions, a game that showcased balance and depth on both sides of the ball.
The Raiders, meanwhile, snapped a four-game losing streak with a 20-10 victory over the Tennessee Titans. Coach Pete Carroll’s team improved to 2-4 and will now look to build on that momentum against a familiar rival. Kansas City has dominated the head-to-head series, winning 13 of the past 15 meetings.
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Line Movement and Odds
Kansas City opened as heavy home favorites at -12.5, with Las Vegas listed at +12.5 and the total set at 45.5 points. The Chiefs’ strong home form and the Raiders’ offensive inconsistency have both contributed to sharp action on Kansas City to cover.
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Matchup Breakdown
Mahomes enters Week 7 with 1,514 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. The Kansas City offense has steadily regained its identity, ranking near the top of the league in passing efficiency and third-down conversions. Travis Kelce remains his most reliable weapon, while the return of wideout Rashee Rice from suspension adds another dimension to the attack.
Rice, who hasn’t played in over a year due to injury and suspension, is expected to be eased back into the rotation. His presence could open up space for Marquise Brown, who caught two touchdowns in last week’s win. Andy Reid praised Rice’s preparation and conditioning, calling his return “a boost at the perfect time.”
Defensively, the Chiefs have quietly become one of the AFC’s stingiest units. They rank fourth in opponent scoring and continue to pressure quarterbacks effectively. Linebacker Nick Bolton and edge rusher George Karlaftis have led a front seven that’s making key stops in critical moments.
The Raiders’ biggest challenge has been protecting the football. Quarterback Geno Smith has thrown a league-high 10 interceptions to go with seven touchdown passes, and he’ll need to limit mistakes to keep the game within reach. Running back Ashton Jeanty has been a bright spot, totaling 424 rushing yards and five touchdowns across six games. His versatility out of the backfield has made him one of the few consistent offensive weapons for Las Vegas.
Defensively, Las Vegas ranks 11th in sacks and interceptions, anchored by Maxx Crosby, who continues to produce at an All-Pro level. But the secondary has struggled against elite passers, a dangerous combination when facing Mahomes at Arrowhead.
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Key Storylines
Patrick Mahomes has quieted early-season doubts with his recent stretch of dominant play. Over his past three outings, he’s been decisive, efficient, and deadly accurate in red-zone situations. With Rashee Rice back and Kelce in midseason form, Kansas City’s passing attack is primed for another surge.
Las Vegas will need a near-perfect defensive performance to stay competitive. Jeanty’s emergence gives the Raiders hope for a balanced approach, but turnovers and penalties have consistently stalled drives. Pete Carroll emphasized discipline during the week, calling this matchup a “measuring stick” for his rebuilding roster.
History is firmly on Kansas City’s side, and the atmosphere at Arrowhead only amplifies the pressure for a Raiders team that hasn’t won there since 2020.
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Prediction
The Chiefs’ offensive firepower and defensive consistency make them heavy favorites for a reason. Las Vegas’ secondary has no clear answer for Mahomes and Kelce, and the Raiders’ turnover-prone offense is unlikely to sustain long drives against Kansas City’s pressure-heavy front.
Projected Score: Kansas City Chiefs 31, Las Vegas Raiders 17
Best Bet: Chiefs -12.5 (-108)
Secondary Lean: Over 45.5 (-110)
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