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San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin FC Game Preview
The San Jose Earthquakes host Austin FC on Decision Day, and for the home side, everything is on the line. San Jose’s postseason hopes hang by a thread — win, and they still need help. Lose, and the season ends. Kickoff is set for Saturday, October 19, 2025, at 10:30 PM ET at PayPal Park in San Jose, California.
Austin has already secured its playoff spot, while San Jose needs a miracle combination of results elsewhere to sneak into the final Western Conference wild-card position.
Line Movement and Odds
The line opened nearly even but has shifted slightly toward the visiting Verde, who enter with better form.
- Moneyline: Earthquakes +155 / Austin FC +165 / Draw +240
- Total: Over/Under 2.5 (Over −120 / Under +100)
Follow live line movement and updated odds on the MLS scores and odds page.
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Matchup Breakdown
The Earthquakes (10-15-8, 38 pts) enter desperate and out of rhythm. They’ve dropped four of their last five, including a 4–1 collapse at Vancouver that nearly buried their playoff hopes. Defense has been the main issue — San Jose has conceded 12 goals in its last five matches and ranks near the bottom of the West in goal differential (−17).
Coach Bruce Arena knows the math is against them.
“We don’t have control of things,” Arena said. “All we can do is go out and try to get three points and see where we stand when all the dust clears.”
Cristian Arango and Myrto Uzuni share the team lead with six goals each, but San Jose has lacked consistency up front. They’ll need Arango’s best performance yet — and contributions from wide players like Benji Kikanović and Niko Tsakiris — to break down a compact Austin defense.
The Verde (13-12-8, 47 pts) have already clinched the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference. While their playoff ticket is punched, coach Nico Estevez insists Austin won’t coast.
“We’re going to approach it in a way that we have to win because it prepares us better for the playoffs,” Estevez said.
Owen Wolff, only 20, has become Austin’s breakout star, notching his 14th goal contribution of the season with a decisive header in their 1–0 win over LAFC. Austin’s midfield pairing of Dani Pereira and Alex Ring has also been in control recently, and Brad Stuver remains one of MLS’s steadiest keepers.
Austin won both previous meetings this year — 3–1 at home in MLS play (Aug. 30) and on penalties in the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals after a 2–2 draw (July 8).
Key Stats
| Team | Record | Goals (For/Against) | Last 5 Matches | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 10-15-8 (38 pts) | 39 / 56 | 1-4-0 | LWLWL |
| Austin FC | 13-12-8 (47 pts) | 45 / 42 | 3-1-1 | WLWDW |
The Lean
This is desperation versus momentum. San Jose will push high and take risks — a dangerous game against Austin’s counter-attack. Expect the Earthquakes to control possession, but the Verde’s composure and superior finishing tilt this matchup.
- Moneyline Lean: Austin FC +165
- Total Lean: Over 2.5 (−120)
- Projected Score: Austin FC 2 – San Jose 1
Even if San Jose comes out strong, Austin’s structure and form should prevail. The Verde have won both previous matchups this season and enter the finale sharper and more balanced.
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Handicappers and Service Plays
Consensus MLS handicappers lean Austin FC ML and Over 2.5, pointing to San Jose’s leaky defense and Austin’s attacking rhythm. Some sharp bettors are considering BTTS (Both Teams to Score – Yes) as a safer play, given San Jose’s home urgency.
For verified picks and up-to-date betting data, check the Best Handicappers Leaderboard — every expert ranked by profit and ROI across soccer and major U.S. sports.
Explore the full MLS picks page and the soccer betting guide to get ready for Decision Day action across the league.
