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Game Preview Southeast Missouri State @ Missouri
The Southeast Missouri State Redhawks travel to Columbia to face the Missouri Tigers on Friday night in a nonconference in-state matchup at Mizzou Arena. The Tigers opened their season with an 88-67 win over Howard, while the Redhawks fell 92-67 at Saint Louis.
For Missouri, the opener highlighted both the team’s depth and its areas for improvement. Coach Dennis Gates is still working to integrate transfers and returning standouts Mark Mitchell and Anthony Robinson II into a balanced offensive system. Mitchell and Robinson combined for just 17 points against Howard, but center Shawn Phillips Jr. picked up the slack with 16 points and 11 rebounds, building on an impressive preseason performance.
Missouri’s new rotation also includes West Virginia transfer Jayden Stone, who posted 13 points and 5 rebounds in his debut. Gates expects Stone and Phillips to complement Mitchell’s scoring punch as the Tigers prepare for tougher competition in the SEC.
Southeast Missouri State enters this matchup with valuable experience despite a difficult opener. Coach Brad Korn’s Redhawks returned four key players from last year’s OVC title team, including BJ Ward and Brendan Terry, who combined for 30 points in the loss to Saint Louis. Korn’s squad will need to rely on perimeter quickness and rotational size to contend with Missouri’s deep frontcourt.
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Odds and Key Information
Missouri is heavily favored at home, entering as 25.5-point favorites. The total sits at 156.5, suggesting a fast-paced contest with plenty of scoring chances.
| Key Betting Line | Value |
|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri -25.5 (-111) |
| Moneyline | Missouri -10000 / SEMO +2900 |
| Total | 156.5 O/U |
| Venue | Mizzou Arena, Columbia, MO |
| Time | 8:00 PM ET (SEC Network) |
High spreads like this one can be influenced by pace and efficiency, two factors explained in handicap in betting and what does the spread mean in betting.
Missouri Outlook
Missouri’s early-season focus is on rediscovering its offensive identity. Gates’ system relies on spacing and movement through star playmakers Mitchell and Robinson, but both faced defensive attention in the opener. Instead, the Tigers relied on their interior depth — particularly Phillips Jr., who has quickly become a key paint presence after transferring from Arizona State.
The Tigers’ efficiency was encouraging: they shot 55.7 percent from the field and 52.6 percent from deep, one of the best marks in the nation during opening week. Missouri’s bench contributed heavily, underscoring Gates’ emphasis on depth.
Defensively, Missouri forced 15 turnovers and dominated the glass, posting a +12 rebounding margin. The Tigers’ length and versatility — six rotation players stand 6’8” or taller — give them flexibility to mix zone looks and switching man defense. Their challenge will be avoiding turnovers and maintaining offensive rhythm with their stars still finding form.
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Southeast Missouri State Outlook
The Redhawks enter as heavy underdogs but possess some offensive potential. In their opener, BJ Ward scored 16 points, while Brendan Terry and Braxton Stacker added a combined 26. Their quick tempo (73.6 possessions per game) can create transition looks, but defensive lapses and limited size could be exploited by Missouri’s frontcourt.
Coach Korn’s team draws fouls effectively, averaging 26 free throw attempts per game, and has enough guard depth to challenge tired defenders. However, rebounding remains a major concern. In their loss to Saint Louis, SEMO was outrebounded by 20 and gave up 40 points in the paint.
To stay competitive, the Redhawks must maximize possessions, force turnovers, and capitalize on free-throw opportunities. Their experience in last year’s OVC championship run shows composure, but size mismatch remains their biggest hurdle.
These efficiency disparities highlight key concepts discussed in alternate total points and futures betting pros and cons.
Key Matchup Table
| Statistical Category | Edge |
|---|---|
| Field Goal % | Missouri (55.7%) |
| Rebounding Margin | Missouri (+12) |
| 3PT Shooting | Missouri (52.6%) |
| Free Throw Attempts | SEMO (26 per game) |
| Turnovers | Missouri (10 per game) |
Missouri’s interior dominance and three-point efficiency could dictate tempo, while SEMO’s perimeter guards will try to push pace and draw contact.
Betting Trends
Missouri is 1-0 straight up and ATS this season, building off a trend of covering early nonconference lines. The Tigers have gone over in five of their last seven home openers, but unders have hit frequently when they face mid-major opponents with slower scoring efficiency.
Southeast Missouri State has covered in four of its last six games as a double-digit underdog. The Redhawks tend to start fast offensively but fade late, a pattern that favors first-half wagers and correlated under trends.
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Prediction
Missouri’s size and scoring depth should overwhelm SEMO’s smaller lineup, but with Mitchell and Robinson still regaining rhythm, a full 40-minute blowout may not materialize. Expect Missouri to pull away gradually, with improved defensive intensity and Phillips Jr. continuing his strong inside play.
Projected Score: Missouri 88, Southeast Missouri State 67
Spread Pick: Southeast Missouri State +25.5
Total Lean: Under 156.5
Missouri wins comfortably, but the margin likely falls short of the large spread as Gates balances rotations and minutes early in the season.
Why You Need Expert Picks
Big early-season spreads like this are volatile due to lineup changes and variable motivation. The Handicappers Leaderboard tracks verified experts who model possessions, pace, and efficiency.
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