New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks and Predictions November 17th 2025

Game Preview New Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City Thunder

The New Orleans Pelicans continue their transition under interim head coach James Borrego as they welcome a surging Oklahoma City Thunder team to the Smoothie King Center. After the dismissal of Willie Green, Borrego emphasized a defense-first approach, and his Pelicans delivered that intensity despite a 124-106 loss to Golden State. Their effort on that end was evident, and deeper performance notes from the New Orleans Pelicans team page support the notion that improvement is underway.

However, New Orleans’ offensive rhythm lagged, particularly from deep. The Pelicans were outscored 72–24 from three-point range, a staggering differential that overshadowed a defensive effort good enough to hold Stephen Curry to nine points. Despite forcing 21 turnovers and limiting the Warriors to just 36 points in the paint, New Orleans shot only 28 percent from long range, a gap that must narrow if they expect to stay competitive with a Thunder group playing its most disciplined basketball of the season.

Oklahoma City enters winners of five straight, and their defensive identity continues to carry them. The reigning NBA champions have held opponents under 106 points in all but two games during that stretch. Lineup balance, interior discipline, and team connectivity—documented through the Oklahoma City Thunder team page—have positioned them as one of the league’s toughest matchup challenges early in the season.

With both teams emphasizing defensive structure, bettors can find similar analytical profiles in the broader context covered in the NBA picks section, which often highlights pace-pressure matchups like this one.

Odds and Key Information

Oddsmakers opened Oklahoma City as a road favorite, driven by both their defensive consistency and the Pelicans’ scoring volatility. New Orleans is still adjusting under interim leadership, and until their half-court offense stabilizes, pricing tends to favor teams with strong two-way foundations.

Totals for Pelicans games have fluctuated sharply due to wide variance in shooting performance. Their defensive improvement, however, may begin to push game totals downward, a trend that aligns with principles detailed in the basketball pace analysis guide—particularly for teams that prefer half-court efficiency over transition volume.

A glance at the NBA odds board can help bettors track whether defensive trends or recent offensive inefficiencies influence late movement before tipoff.

New Orleans Pelicans Outlook

New Orleans showed noticeable defensive improvement in Borrego’s first game. Their communication was sharper, closeouts were more controlled, and they forced Golden State into one of its highest turnover totals of the season. This defensive posture marks a clear shift from their prior four outings under Willie Green, during which opponents routinely broke the 118-point threshold.

Offensively, however, New Orleans must find better balance. Shooting just 8-for-29 from deep left them unable to capitalize on defensive stops. Jeremiah Fears, who scored 17 points against Golden State and continues to show remarkable poise for a 19-year-old rookie, remains a bright spot, especially following his earlier matchup with Oklahoma City when he finished with 16 points in his Oklahoma homecoming.

New Orleans’ spacing and decision-making must improve to avoid repeat scoring droughts. Concepts from the how to bet on basketball guide highlight how teams with fluctuating shot profiles often create unpredictable spreads, and New Orleans fits that mold at the moment.

Injury Report

• No major injuries reported entering Monday

Oklahoma City Thunder Outlook

The Thunder continue to operate with precision on both ends, anchored by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring efficiency and a defense that rarely deviates from its structure. Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 30 or more in 12 of 14 games this season, including his earlier 30-point performance against New Orleans in a 137-106 victory on Nov. 2.

Head coach Mark Daigneault’s emphasis on defensive consistency remains central. In their most recent win over Charlotte, Oklahoma City regained control in the third quarter by forcing the Hornets into half-court play and generating transition opportunities off stops. Their five-game winning streak has been powered by an average defensive performance allowing just 98.2 points.

Part of Oklahoma City’s strength lies in their bench cohesion and willingness to rotate early and often, minimizing fatigue and maintaining defensive principles across lineups. Their full team metrics—including pace stability and defensive rating trends—are detailed through the Oklahoma City Thunder team page, giving bettors a clear understanding of why they remain one of the league’s most consistent ATS performers.

Injury Report

• No significant injuries reported entering Monday

Key Matchup Table

Key Factor	Edge
Defensive Cohesion	Oklahoma City
Three-Point Efficiency	Oklahoma City
Interior Defense	New Orleans
Bench Scoring	Oklahoma City
Turnover Creation	New Orleans

Betting Trends

Pelicans games have recently trended toward competitive totals that hinge on shooting variance. When New Orleans forces turnovers and limits paint scoring, their contests become slower and more defensive-oriented. However, their inability to match opponents shot-for-shot from deep has created late-game risk, a trend that bettors can examine more deeply using concepts outlined in the how to read betting lines guide.

For Oklahoma City, opponents struggle to produce efficient possessions when forced into half-court sets. Their defensive consistency has led to unders cashing more frequently during this five-game win streak, even against teams known for higher offensive ceilings. Matchups involving disciplined defenses often present sharp mid-game opportunities, something explored in the live betting strategy guide.

The Lean

Oklahoma City’s combination of defensive reliability, shot creation, and lineup balance makes them the more stable side in this matchup. New Orleans’ energy and defensive improvement under Borrego are promising, but their lack of consistent perimeter shooting limits their ability to capitalize on stops.

While the Pelicans can apply pressure defensively, Oklahoma City’s half-court discipline and ability to generate high-quality looks—especially through Gilgeous-Alexander—give them the edge on both ends.

Why You Need Expert Picks

Games like this, where contrasting defensive trends and shooting variability intersect, often require deeper modeling to identify true value. Expert projections take into account pace shifts, rotational patterns, and matchup-specific efficiency. Bettors searching for sharper insight can explore updated selections in the NBA picks feed.

Projected Score, Spread Pick, and Total Lean

Projected Score:
Thunder 113
Pelicans 104

Spread Pick:
Thunder -4

Total Lean:
Under 222.5