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Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview
The Miami Heat host the Dallas Mavericks at Kaseya Center in Monday NBA action. Miami enters at 11-6 riding a four-game win streak, while Dallas sits at 5-13 after being out-rebounded heavily in their loss to Memphis. Bettors will weigh the Heat’s dominance on the glass against the Mavericks’ defensive efficiency from the perimeter.
Line Movement and Odds
- Heat Spread: -8.0 (-111)
- Mavericks Spread: +8.0 (-111)
- Heat MoneyLine: -314
- Mavericks MoneyLine: +255
- Total: 239.0 (Over -110, Under -108)
Miami opened as clear home favorites, reflecting their rebounding edge and Dallas’ struggles in close games. See full NBA odds for market movement.
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Matchup Breakdown
Dallas Mavericks Outlook
Dallas fell 102-96 to Memphis, giving up 23 offensive rebounds. Brandon Williams scored 18 points, while P.J. Washington added 15 points and 8 boards before leaving with a back injury. Rookie Cooper Flagg continues to impress, scoring 29 points in a recent win over New Orleans. The Mavericks lead the NBA in limiting opponent threes (11.2 per game) and rank fourth in opponent three-point percentage (32.5%), giving them a defensive foundation to stay competitive.
Miami Heat Outlook
Miami defeated Philadelphia 127-117, with Norman Powell scoring 32 points and Kel’el Ware and Bam Adebayo combining for 29 rebounds. The Heat rank first in points per game (124.9) and assists (30.6), while shooting 38.1% from deep (5th). Defensively, they allow just 43.3% shooting, second-best in the league. Tyler Herro is targeting this game for his season debut after ankle surgery, potentially adding another scoring weapon to an already potent lineup.
Key Matchup / Path to Victory
The Mavericks must improve rebounding and rely on Flagg’s scoring to offset Miami’s depth. The Heat need Powell and Adebayo to continue their dominance while integrating Herro back into the rotation. Rebounding and second-chance points will be decisive in this interconference clash.
Injuries / Availability
Dallas lists P.J. Washington (back) as day-to-day. For the most recent roster health updates, check the Mavericks injury report.
Miami expects Tyler Herro (ankle) to return, while Norman Powell (hip) played through discomfort. You can find the latest lineup adjustments on the Heat injury page.
Environment
The game tips at Kaseya Center, where Miami is 7-2 at home. Dallas is 2-8 on the road, struggling to find consistency. Expect a physical contest with rebounding as the focal point.
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Best Bets and Prediction
Projected Final Score: Heat 120, Mavericks 114
- Best Bet: Mavericks +8.0 (-111)
Dallas’ perimeter defense suggests they can keep the game within the spread despite rebounding issues. - Total: Under 239.0 (-108)
Our model projects 234 points, leaning under given Dallas’ defensive metrics and Miami’s rebounding focus.
Miami’s rebounding edge should secure the win, but Dallas’ defensive discipline from beyond the arc keeps it close. Expect a competitive game trending under the total.
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