Missouri State Bears vs LIU Sharks Phoenix picks and predictions November 24th 2025

Game Preview: LIU Sharks @ Missouri State Bears

The LIU Sharks travel to Great Southern Bank Arena on Monday night to meet a Missouri State team that has started strong at home and remains a step ahead offensively through the first two weeks of the season. Both teams aim to establish rhythm before conference play ramps up, with LIU sitting at 3-3 and Missouri State at 3-2. The LIU Sharks rely heavily on pace and perimeter creation, while the Missouri State Bears lean on interior finishing and a strong scoring core that has produced efficiency at home. The spread opened at Missouri State -5.5, with an over/under of 142.5, reflecting a matchup featuring two teams capable of scoring in bursts. Additional context for the national picture is available on the NCAAB previews page.

Odds and Key Information

The line has remained stable, with early bettors backing the Bears due to their home scoring profile and LIU’s recent defensive inconsistency. Missouri State plays with moderate tempo but generates high-percentage interior looks. LIU enters as one of the faster teams in the field, ranking inside the nation’s top 60 in possessions per game. The total of 142.5 fits the likely tempo, though market signals point toward projection volatility.

Coaches from both sides emphasized control—LIU focusing on transition spacing and improved ball movement, while Missouri State highlighted defensive rotations and free-throw creation. With both teams operating near full availability, rotation stability should support efficient game flow.

LIU Sharks Outlook

LIU enters this matchup following a challenging 98-58 loss to Illinois, a game in which stretches of defensive breakdowns compounded offensive droughts. A.J. Neal Jr. delivered 15 points on 54.5 percent shooting, and Faheim Meran added a strong 3-for-4 performance. Despite the defeat, LIU flashed scoring potential, particularly in early-possession actions that create separation for their perimeter shooters.

The Sharks average 71.6 possessions per game, ranking 57th nationally, and their tempo remains their biggest asset. Jamal Fuller leads with 14.2 points per game and functions as the offensive stabilizer in ball-screen sets. His ability to create midrange efficiency and attack downhill makes him pivotal against a Missouri State defense that can be vulnerable against speed.

LIU’s shooting profile remains mixed. While their pacing helps create early scoring windows, inconsistency in half-court execution sometimes leads to rushed attempts. Their 3-3 record includes two wins when installed as favorites, indicating reliable performance when managing game flow, though their challenge lies in sustaining pace without sacrificing shot quality.

Defensively, LIU relies on pressure and rotational speed, but they have struggled against physical frontcourts—a significant concern against Missouri State. The Sharks’ ability to limit second-chance points and protect the rim will dictate their ability to compete in the final 10 minutes.

Missouri State Bears Outlook

Missouri State enters Monday on the heels of a 74-67 win over Texas–Rio Grande Valley. Keith Palek III led with a standout all-around performance: 28 points, nine rebounds, and five assists. His interior command and ability to stretch the floor create mismatches at multiple levels. Michael Osei-Bonsu adds complementary scoring and physicality, giving the Bears reliable frontcourt production.

The Bears average 80.4 points per game and rank among the nation’s top 75 in free throws made per game. Their ability to generate high-percentage trips to the line—18.6 makes on average—adds an essential scoring stabilizer in close contests. At home, Missouri State’s comfort level and shooting confidence have translated well, evident in their 3-1 record.

Defensively, Missouri State focuses heavily on protecting the paint and contesting perimeter jumpers. Their rotations have tightened, but occasional lapses in transition defense remain a concern, especially against fast-paced teams like LIU. If the Bears control the defensive glass and prevent LIU from initiating early offense, they can dictate game rhythm.

Missouri State’s bench has provided productive situational minutes, though the bulk of scoring still flows through Palek, Osei-Bonsu, and the backcourt’s shot creation. Their scoring balance projects well against an LIU defense that has struggled to contain teams relying on multiple playmakers.

Key Matchup Table

Category	Advantage
Interior Scoring	Missouri State Bears
Pace & Transition	LIU Sharks
Free-Throw Production	Missouri State Bears
Three-Point Shooting	LIU Sharks

Betting Trends

LIU has split its first six games with mixed ATS results. Their pace has propelled overs in multiple matchups, though defensive inconsistency has also contributed to fluctuating totals. For broader totals context, bettors can review the NCAAB scores and odds page.

Missouri State is 3-1 at home and has demonstrated consistent scoring reliability across their last three contests. Their effective free-throw profile and stable possession structure have helped them cover spreads in advantageous spots. Matchup-specific angles can also be explored on the college basketball picks page.

Head-to-head history is limited, but stylistic differences suggest a fast opening pace with the potential for defensive tightening late. For deeper college basketball trends, readers can explore tools on the NCAAB team directory or long-term futures analysis on the college basketball championship odds page.

The Lean

Missouri State’s interior scoring, free-throw reliability, and home-court efficiency position the Bears as the more stable side entering Monday’s matchup. LIU’s ability to push tempo gives them scoring potential, but sustaining pace while maintaining defensive integrity remains a challenge. Missouri State’s balance and shot profile give them a strong projection to cover in a possession-based game.

LIU’s path lies in maximizing early-clock scoring opportunities, limiting fouling, and generating disruption through pace. If the Sharks convert efficiently from the perimeter and speed up Missouri State’s offense, they can extend competitiveness. For broader game evaluations across this week, bettors can refer to the NCAAB previews page.

Projected Final Score: Missouri State Bears 78, LIU Sharks 69
Best Spread Pick: Missouri State Bears -5.5
Total Lean: Over 142.5

Why You Need Expert Picks

Nonconference matchups require evaluating pace variance, shot-quality profiles, and depth reliability. Expert projections adjust for matchup-specific edges, including transition efficiency and free-throw frequency. The Handicappers Leaderboard on the college basketball picks portal highlights operators who consistently identify value in mid-major markets.

For bettors seeking more comprehensive strategy support, the expert NCAAB betting guide and the John Wooden Award odds hub offer additional insights. Leveraging expert projections can help identify sharp-side indicators and matchup trends that shape actionable plays in games like LIU vs Missouri State.