Florida State Seminoles vs Texas A&m Aggies Picks and Predictions November 28th 2025

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Game Preview Florida State vs Texas A&M

Two high-powered offenses meet in Tampa on Friday as the Florida State Seminoles take on the Texas A&M Aggies in a neutral-site battle with resume implications. Both programs are looking to notch their first marquee win over a power-conference opponent this season and enter with plenty of momentum.

Florida State (5-1) is fresh off an 89-59 win over Cal State Bakersfield and nearly pulled off an early-season upset at Florida, falling just short in a 78-76 thriller. The Seminoles bring one of the nation’s top defenses and the No. 1 turnover-forcing unit in the country, averaging 21.2 forced per game.

Texas A&M (5-2) began the year with a rough stretch against Oklahoma State and UCF but has since responded with three straight wins, including a 120-84 blowout of Mississippi Valley State. New transfer Mackenzie Mgbako appears to be finding his stride and adds much-needed versatility to the Aggies’ frontcourt.

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Odds and Key Information

CategoryDetails
SpreadTexas A&M -2.5
MoneylineTexas A&M -145 / Florida State +125
Total (O/U)171.5
LocationAmalie Arena, Tampa, FL (Neutral Site)
Time & DateFriday, Nov. 29, 6:00 PM ET
TV CoverageESPN2

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Florida State Outlook

The Seminoles are quietly building a strong early-season resume with impressive second-half performances and elite perimeter defense. Head coach Luke Loucks has emphasized pressure, with his team forcing a Division I-best 21.2 turnovers per game.

In Tuesday’s win over CS Bakersfield, Florida State started 0-for-15 from three but caught fire after halftime, scoring 54 points and finishing 8-for-17 from deep in the second half. Their 21-0 run flipped the game and demonstrated the team’s ability to create runs through defensive pressure.

While the Seminoles lack a traditional star, they feature six players averaging at least 8 points per game. Their deep rotation and relentless pressure make them dangerous in transition and difficult to prepare for.

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Texas A&M Outlook

The Aggies bounced back from consecutive losses to Oklahoma State and UCF with three straight wins, including a 120-point explosion against Mississippi Valley State. The return of forward Mackenzie Mgbako has given them a boost—he dropped 19 points in just his second game after missing five with a foot injury.

Texas A&M ranks top 20 nationally in scoring at over 93 points per game, and their tempo has dramatically increased since Mgbako’s return. They’ll look to capitalize on transition mismatches and hit early offense before Florida State can set its full-court pressure.

Coach Bucky McMillan’s team still needs to prove it can defend against elite ball-handling teams—something they struggled with earlier this month—and Friday’s game should be a major test in that area.

Explore how tempo impacts over/under betting with high-scoring teams like Texas A&M.

Key Matchup Table

MatchupEdge
Turnovers ForcedFlorida State
Shooting EfficiencyTexas A&M
Bench DepthFlorida State
ReboundingTexas A&M
Three-Point DefenseFlorida State
Transition OffenseEven

Betting Trends

  • Florida State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
  • Texas A&M is 3-5 ATS in its last 8 games as a favorite.
  • The total has gone over in 4 of Texas A&M’s last 6 games.
  • Florida State games have hit the over in 3 of their last 5.
  • Florida State is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
  • Texas A&M is 6-2 SU in its last 8 non-conference games.
  • Florida State is forcing more turnovers than any team in D1.
  • The Seminoles have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 neutral-site games.

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Prediction

This game features two of the fastest and highest-scoring teams in college basketball, but Florida State’s defensive pressure and deeper bench could make the difference late. While Texas A&M has firepower, they’ve struggled when faced with elite perimeter pressure—and Florida State leads the nation in turnovers forced.

Expect a fast pace, streaky shooting, and a game that comes down to who can maintain composure in transition.

Projected Score: Florida State 88, Texas A&M 84
Spread Pick: Florida State +2.5
Total Lean: Over 171.5

Find more non-conference previews and betting breakdowns in our NCAAB picks section.

Why You Need Expert Picks

Power-conference matchups like Florida State vs Texas A&M carry high volatility due to new rotations, transfers, and neutral-site dynamics. That’s why expert insights matter—especially when total lines climb over 170 points.

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