New York Rangers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks and Predictions November 29th 2025

Game Preview: Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Rangers

The Tampa Bay Lightning head to Madison Square Garden on November 29, 2025, looking to extend their six-game winning streak against a New York Rangers team still searching for consistency on home ice. Tampa Bay, listed on the Tampa Bay Lightning team page, has rebounded dramatically from a 1-4-2 start and now sits near the top of the Eastern Conference. New York, found at the New York Rangers team page, enters on a three-game winning streak but holds a concerning 2-7-1 home record.

The Lightning’s Friday win over Detroit showcased the versatility and depth driving their surge, while the Rangers’ victory in Boston highlighted an offense capable of explosive stretches—particularly with Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad rediscovering elite form. Bettors tracking additional hockey angles can explore weekly cross-sport picks via the league’s analytics-driven insights in the best soccer bets this week.

Odds and Key Information

New York opened as a slim -114 favorite with Tampa Bay at -104 on the moneyline. The puckline lists Tampa Bay +1.5 at heavy juice, while the total sits at 6.5 with a slight lean toward the under. Market interest has remained balanced on both sides, though sharp bettors have probed Tampa’s moneyline given the Lightning’s efficiency surge and the Rangers’ home struggles.

Tampa Bay continues to excel despite missing multiple key defensemen, while New York faces pressure to convert recent road momentum into home success. Mike Sullivan emphasized simplified play in their Boston win, focusing on disciplined structure—an essential component against a Lightning attack that ranks top five in scoring.

Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook

Tampa Bay’s evolution since their 1-4-2 start has been stark. The Lightning have gone 14-3-0 since mid-October, riding an improved transition game and more consistent special-teams execution. Their current six-game win streak includes a 26-9 scoring margin, supported by aggressive forechecking and increased shot quality from their top lines.

Darren Raddysh’s two-goal performance in Detroit reflected their expanding offensive depth, while Nikita Kucherov continues to produce at an MVP-level pace. His eight-game point streak (four goals, 11 assists) demonstrates how opponents struggle to contain him once Tampa stabilizes possession. Yanni Gourde’s emergence with multi-goal contributions reinforces the Lightning’s ability to pressure defensive gaps.

Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy remains crucial, particularly early in games. Jon Cooper credited him with stabilizing the team during sluggish opening periods, enabling the Lightning to assert control once they settle into their cycle structure. Despite injuries to Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, and Erik Cernak, Tampa’s blue line has adjusted with improved puck support from forwards and increased minutes for Brandon Hagel and Jake Guentzel in transition recovery.

To succeed at MSG, Tampa must continue dictating pace through controlled entries, force New York into defensive scrambles, and limit turnovers at their own blue line. Their recent road form—four straight road wins—indicates growing confidence outside Amalie Arena. For injury updates, bettors can monitor the Lightning injury report.

New York Rangers Outlook

The Rangers’ season continues to hinge on the disparity between home and road performance. While they stand 11-4-1 on the road, their 2-7-1 mark at MSG underscores inconsistency in puck management and defensive structure. Still, their current three-game win streak—highlighted by a 6-2 win in Boston—shows momentum.

Artemi Panarin’s third four-point game of the season came at an opportune time. His chemistry with Mika Zibanejad produced two power-play goals in 45 seconds, reinvigorating a unit that ranks top ten in PP efficiency. Vincent Trocheck’s playmaking surge (10 points since returning November 10) adds depth, while Zibanejad’s finishing on the man advantage elevates New York’s high-danger threat profile.

Igor Shesterkin remains the foundational piece of New York’s defensive identity, with 503 saves and strong rebound control through the first quarter of the season. The Rangers lead the league in hits, using physicality to slow opponents’ cycle games—an important tool against Tampa’s speed-driven structure.

Sullivan’s emphasis on avoiding complacency with multi-goal leads reflects a team still learning to close games cleanly. Against Tampa, maintaining defensive layers and preventing cross-ice feeds to Kucherov will be essential. Their updated roster status is available via the Rangers injury report.

Key Matchup Table

Key Factor	Advantage
Transition Speed	Tampa Bay Lightning
Power-Play Conversion	New York Rangers
Goaltending Stability	Tampa Bay Lightning
Physicality / Forecheck	New York Rangers
Second-Line Scoring Depth	Tampa Bay Lightning

Betting Trends

Tampa Bay has been one of the league’s most profitable teams against the puckline, covering in each of their last six games as an underdog. Their straight-up momentum also reflects improved special teams, with consistent scoring from both their top and middle-six lines.

New York has gone 6-3 against the puckline as an underdog and has played 14 unders in 21 games, driven by strong goaltending and conservative defensive structure. Their 3-0 SU streak aligns with improved offensive efficiency but the question remains whether they can translate road performance to MSG.

For expanded league-wide betting evaluation, bettors can reference the NHL odds board.

The Lean

This matchup features two teams trending upward, though Tampa Bay enters with better overall form and a more consistent scoring profile. The Rangers’ home struggles complicate trust on the moneyline, even with their improved power-play output and recent victories.

Projected score: Rangers 4, Lightning 3. The model leans slightly toward the Rangers -114 due to home-ice advantage and their elite special teams, but the margin is slim. The over 6.5 aligns with expected pace, both teams’ recent scoring surges, and the likelihood of extended power-play opportunities.

For more hockey analysis across upcoming slates, visit the NHL previews index.

Why You Need Expert Picks

High-variance matchups between elite offenses often create unpredictable goal-scoring patterns. Expert handicappers use advanced metrics—including rush-chance creation, defensive-zone retrieval rates, and goaltender fatigue modeling—to determine sharp-side positions. The Handicappers Leaderboard at the expert picks hub offers performance tracking that identifies specialists who thrive in NHL markets.

Sharp bettors value matchup-specific insights, particularly when evaluating road-winning streaks, cluster injuries, and special-teams volatility. For more multi-league strategy tools, the expert betting guide supports deeper analysis for bettors aiming to sharpen market edges.

Projected Final Score: New York Rangers 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Best Spread Pick: Rangers ML
Total Lean: Over 6.5