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Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Betting Preview
Dallas returns home seeking its first three-game win streak of the season. The Mavericks beat the Clippers and Nuggets behind breakout performances from rookie Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis and Ryan Nembhard. Flagg’s confidence and aggression continue to rise, and Dallas is finally stabilizing its rotation. Nembhard’s 28-point, 10-assist night in Denver showed how much pace and control he adds to the offense.
Miami enters on a seven-of-eight surge. The Heat beat Dallas 106-102 less than two weeks ago, and they are coming off a 140-123 win over the Clippers where they tied a franchise record with 24 made threes. Tyler Herro’s return has boosted their shot creation, and Davion Mitchell has accelerated the pace with quick outlets and improved decision-making.
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Line Movement and Odds
Miami opened -3 and moved to -4 with steady support on the favorite. Dallas sits at +4, attracting the smaller share of handle. Sharp action leans toward the Heat after their recent efficiency spike.
The total opened at 238 and moved up to 239.5. Public bettors expect pace and shot volume on both sides. Specialists show a slight lean to the under due to Dallas’ recent defensive improvement.
Track updates on the full NBA odds board.
Matchup Breakdown
Dallas is playing its best basketball of the season. Flagg’s aggression, Davis’ paint pressure and Nembhard’s tempo give them balance. The Mavericks defend the arc well and rank near the top in three-point attempts allowed and opponent three-point percentage. If they control Miami’s first action, their defense holds up.
Miami is a tough matchup for Dallas due to pace, volume and spacing. The Heat lead the league in possessions and field goal attempts. Their 38 percent three-point shooting stretches defenses and opens driving lanes for Mitchell and Herro. Bam Adebayo’s expanded perimeter touch adds another wrinkle the Mavericks must track.
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Injuries and Conditions
Dallas Mavericks
- Anthony Davis, minor foot soreness, probable
- Daniel Gafford, ankle, questionable
- P.J. Washington, ankle, questionable
- Kyrie Irving, rest ramp-up, expected to play
See full Dallas Mavericks injury report.
Miami Heat
- Norman Powell, ankle, questionable
- Jaime Jaquez Jr., back, probable
See full Miami Heat injury report .This game is indoors, so no weather impact.
Best Bets and Prediction
Miami has covered four of its past five. Their shot volume and perimeter spacing present matchup problems for Dallas, who must defend the arc cleanly. Dallas’ recent surge matters, but Miami’s depth and pace carry more consistency.
Projected Score: Heat 122, Mavericks 114
Best Bet: Heat -4
Secondary Lean: Under 239.5
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