On Saturday, December 27, the sport of boxing will close out the year with a thrilling event titled The Ring V: Night of the Samurai, live from the Mohammed Abdo Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

The main event of the night will see one of the sport’s P4P best fighters Naoya Inoue defend his undisputed junior featherweight championship against unbeaten challenger Alan David Picasso Romero.

Inoue (31-0, 28 KOs) is now the best pound-for-pound fighter in all of boxing after Terence Crawford just announced his retirement this week. Inoue last competed in September, and he defeated Murodjon Akhmadaliev via unanimous decision. Saturday’s bout against Picasso will be Inoue’s fourth fight this year.

Picasso (32-0-1, 17 KOs) is a rising contender in the super bantamweight (junior featherweight) division. He’s tall for this weight class and just 25-years-old. While many feel that this bout is too soon for Picasso, there’s no denying the Mexican fighter’s improving skillset in the ring. He last fought in July and beat Japan’s Kyonosuke Kameda via majority decision.

The main event is expected to have an 8am ET ring walk time. The DAZN PPV broadcast is scheduled to begin at 4am ET.

Let’s take a look at the latest David Picasso vs. Naoya Inoue odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Naoya Inoue vs. David Picasso predictions. You can also compare our analysis with what the best handicappers are picking for this highly anticipated fight.

KO Your Boxing Picks
With The Industry’s Best

Best Handicapping Membership!

Get Free Trial

Naoya Inoue vs. David Picasso Preview

Check out the latest tale of the tape of Naoya Inoue vs. David Picasso:

Naoya Inoue Recent Fights

Naoya Inoue will make his 4^th appearance in the ring this year, when he takes on Picasso this Saturday. In January 2025, Inoue crushed a replacement fighter in Ye Joon Kim via 4th round knockout. That was just four months after he blasted TJ Doheny via 7th round TKO.

Then, in May, he stopped Ramon Cardenas with an 8th round TKO. However, Inoue was dropped in the second round. Once he got up, the “monster” arrived and went on to annihilate Cardenas in front of the Las Vegas crowd.

In September, Inoue would defeat Akhmadaliev via unanimous decision with the scores of 117-111, 118-110, 118-110.

This weekend’s clash will be Inoue’s 5^th bout in the last 15 months. Yet, the Japanese superstar doesn’t worry about the critics who say that he’s fighting too much. In fact, Inoue says that he likes fighting and believes this will help him for next year’s clash with Nakatani:

“Firstly, I like fighting, and second, I want to keep building my career step by step so this is why I chose to fight four times this year. It’s very important for me and very good for me to have four fights in the year ahead of a fight with Nakatani.”

Inoue isn’t afraid of being knocked down, which is evident by two knockdowns in his last five fights (Cardenas and Nery in May 2024). However, the man has an 87.1% knockout rate due to his willingness to fight, exchange punches, and desire to finish off his opponents.

In an era where fighters cherry pick opponents, duck other champs, or “retire,” Inoue will fight everyone. He’s a four-division champion, two-division undisputed champion, and will go up to a 5^th weight class (featherweight) most likely in 2027.

Naoya Inoue Odds

Inoue opened as a -4000 favorite over Picasso. He currently sits in a range of -4000 to -5500 for this weekend’s fight in Saudi Arabia. Prior to this bout, Inoue was favored as high as -1250 over Akhmadaliev and -5000 to -10000 over Kim and Cardenas.

The lowest Inoue’s odds have been for a pro fight was against Stephen Fulton when he was a -350 to -450 favorite.

David Picasso Recent Fights

The unbeaten Alan David Picasso Romero (David Picasso for short), last competed in July 2025, where he beat Kameda via 10^th round majority decision. Prior to that, Picasso last fought in December 2024, where he beat Yehison Cuello via 3^rd round KO.

The Cuello fight marked his 5^th trip inside the boxing ring for 2024. Picasso also beat Erik Ruiz in January via unanimous decision, Damien Vaezquez in May via 5^th round TKO, Azat Hovhannisyan in August via unanimous decision, and Diego Alberto Ruiz in October via unanimous decision.

17 of his 33 pro fights have ended via TKO/KO. That’s a 53.13% knockout rate.

David Picasso Odds

There’s limited betting data for Picasso’s pro fights. Picasso opened at +1360 odds against Inoue and currently sits at a range of +1000 to +1600.

His last bout came against Kameda where he closed at -1300. His lowest odds came against Azat Hovhannisyan in August 2024, where Picasso was a -450 to -600 odds.  

Picasso vs. Inoue Predictions

Looking over Picasso’s career, it’s hard to find an opponent that you can say shaped him to be a contender for Inoue this weekend. While he has some physical tools and boxing skills, there are levels to this game. The WBC claimed that he was a mandatory challenger to Inoue over the summer but Picasso pulled out.

Now, the unbeaten fighter believes that he is ready to face Inoue. I think this bout is sending the lamb to get slaughtered. Inoue is at the top of the sport. Picasso has fought in a 12-round bout just one time in his career. He’s also never fought anyone remotely close to the level of Inoue.

While I think he can still contend for a title in the future, I don’t see any scenario where Picasso wins this weekend. Take Inoue to pick up an emphatic victory.

Bet: Naoya Inoue (-5000)

The Best Inoue vs. Picasso Prop Bets

Let’s take a look at some of the best Naoya Inoue vs. David Picasso prop bets:

Over/Under 5.5 rounds

• Over 5.5 (-130)
• Under 5.5 (Even)

In his last 10 fights, Inoue has gone Over 5.5 rounds in eight of them. I am going to take the Over for this bout as I believe Picasso will try to fight from a distance to use his three-inch height and reach advantages.

Bet: Over 5.5 (-130)

Will Fight go the distance?

• Yes (+550)
• No (-900)

It would be a small miracle if Picasso survives the full 12 rounds. With Nakatani in attendance, Inoue is going to finish off this bout inside the distance. He has 27 KOs in 31 fights, which is an 87.1% knockout rate. You can add another stoppage to this impressive resume.

Bet: No, the fight will not go the distance (-900)

Method of Victory

• Picasso via TKO/KO/DQ (+1600)
• Picasso via decision (+3300)
• Inoue via TKO/KO/DQ (-715)
• Inoue via decision (+500)
• Draw (+2000)

The favored option, by a wide margin, is Inoue to win via TKO/KO. This is the most likely outcome. However, if you want to take a flier on another option, then go with Inoue to win via decision at +500 odds. A 5X ROI is worthy of a flier for you risk takes. For me, it’s all about the KO.

Bet: Inoue via TKO/KO/DQ (-715)

Betting on Rounds

• Either Winner in rounds 1-4 (+185)
• Either Winner in rounds 5-8 (+135)
• Either Winner in rounds 9-12 (+350)
• Fight To Go The Distance (+550)

Although Picasso has never suffered a loss in his pro career, he has never faced someone the caliber of Inoue. I see the first few rounds being a “feeling out process” for Picasso. Unfortunately, Inoue will eventually close off the ring, do some damage, where down his opponent, and finish off Picasso in the middle rounds. I also like the option of rounds 9-12 at a 3.5X on investment. It’s also worth a flier.

Bet: Either Winner in rounds 5-8 (+135)

What’s Next For The Inoue vs. Picasso Winner?

If Picasso can pull off a massive upset, then the next fight would be an immediate rematch. However, when Inoue wins, it’s going to set up the fight that everyone wants to see – Inoue vs. Nakatani.

Both Japanese superstars are in agreement to fight in 2026. In fact, various boxing outlets are reporting that they have already agreed to compete on May 3, 2026. Nakatani moved up to super bantamweight for his upcoming fight in Riyadh in order to prepare for Inoue next year.

Nakatani is fighting on the undercard as the co-main event for The Ring V: Night of the Samurai. There’s a planned face-to-face meeting between Inoue and Nakatani following the former’s bout against Picasso.

Nakatani made the following comments about facing Inoue next:

“I realise that it’s a fight that everybody wants to see, and that’s a source of motivation for me. I’ve watched a lot of Inoue’s fights and they’ve provided me with a lot of stimulation, and even more now that we’re in the same weight class. I’ve always kind of viewed him as the guy, he’s like a destination I strive to get to, and more now that we’re the same weight that is a motivation for sure.”

Inoue has also confirmed his desire to face Nakatani, as mentioned above. This will go down as the biggest bout in Japanese boxing history. Currently, sportsbooks have Inoue listed as a -370 favorite over Nakatani at +260 odds. I have Inoue winning that fight via unanimous decision.

Naoya Inoue vs. David Picasso Fight Card

Here’s the latest fight card for The Ring V: Night of the Samurai:

• Naoya Inoue (-5000) vs. David Picasso (+1200) in a 12 round undisputed junior featherweight title fight
• Junto Nakatani (-1400) vs. Sebastian Hernandez (+700) in a 12 round super bantamweight bout
• Willibaldo Garcia Perez (+350) vs. (C)Kenshiro Teraji (-500) in a 12 round IBF junior bantamweight clash
• Taiga Imanada vs. Eridson Garcia in a 10 round lightweight contest
• Reito Tsutsumi vs. Leobardo Quintana in a six round super featherweight fight