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Pittsburgh heads to Scotiabank Arena to face Toronto on Tuesday, December 23, with puck drop set for 4:00 PM ET on TNT, truTV, and HBO Max. The Penguins enter at 15-11-9 and are trying to build off a needed win after a rough stretch. The Maple Leafs are 15-15-5, sitting at the bottom of the Atlantic, and they look stuck in the mud offensively after a brutal 0-3 road trip.
This matchup also has a “get-right before the break” feel for both sides. Toronto has the talent to rip off goals in bunches, but their special teams and finishing have lagged lately. Pittsburgh is leaning heavily on its top-end creators, and the urgency is real with the standings tightening.
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Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs Odds
These are the current betting lines, but numbers move quickly on game day. Always monitor the latest NHL odds before placing your bets using the live board and market updates at latest NHL odds.
| Team | Moneyline | Puck Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Penguins | +114 | +1.5 (-218) | O 6.5 (+110) / U 6.5 (-130) |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | -137 | -1.5 (+180) | O 6.5 (+110) / U 6.5 (-130) |
Pittsburgh Penguins Betting Form
The Penguins’ results have been volatile, but the profile is clear: when their top line is driving play, they can hang with anyone. Sidney Crosby remains the engine, and Pittsburgh’s best stretches come when they’re getting clean exits and turning that into sustained zone time. If you want the bigger-picture snapshot, start with Pittsburgh Penguins stats and results, then work backward through who they’ve beaten and how they’ve scored.
The betting angle comes down to whether the Penguins can keep this game at 5-on-5 and avoid gifting Toronto power-play looks. With Evgeni Malkin out, the depth scoring gets thinner, which usually pushes Pittsburgh toward a simpler road script: protect the middle, take the +price, and live with a lower-event game. Availability matters here, so monitor the Pittsburgh Penguins injury report before puck drop.
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Malkin | Out | Upper body |
| Caleb Jones | Out | Lower body |
| Filip Hallander | Out | Blood clot |
| Blake Lizotte | Out | Undisclosed |
Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Form
Toronto’s recent stretch has been frustrating because the process has not always matched the scoreboard, but bettors don’t get paid for “good two periods.” The Leafs have had trouble converting chances, and when a team is cold on the power play, it often bleeds into totals and puck line outcomes because they lose the easiest scoring path.
At home, Toronto still has the talent edge in skill positions, but injuries on the back end matter for both matchup quality and in-game volatility. If the Leafs are missing key defenders, their transition game can get sloppy, and that’s where underdogs like Pittsburgh can steal long possessions and tilt the shot share. For a full team-view, Toronto Maple Leafs schedule and stats is the clean starting point. Also keep an eye on the Toronto Maple Leafs injury report as lineup decisions come in.
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Tanev | Out | Upper body |
| Anthony Stolarz | Out | Upper body |
| Brandon Carlo | Out | Lower body |
| Dakota Mermis | Out | Lower body |
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs Matchup Breakdown
Goaltending is a big swing point here. Pittsburgh is projected to start Stuart Skinner, while Toronto is projected to go with Joseph Woll. That matters for totals, but it also matters for how you want to price the dog: if you trust Woll to stabilize Toronto’s game, you can justify the Leafs as a favorite. If you think Skinner’s variance is survivable and Pittsburgh’s top-end creates enough, the plus-money becomes more attractive.
At 5-on-5, this sets up as a battle between Toronto’s skill and Pittsburgh’s ability to slow the game down through structure. Toronto is at its best when the pace opens up and their stars can attack on the rush. Pittsburgh is at its best when they force longer possessions and make Toronto defend multiple sequences in the same shift.
Key matchup angles to keep in mind:
- Toronto’s finishing and power play form versus Pittsburgh’s ability to stay disciplined
- Blue line availability for Toronto and how that impacts exits under pressure
- Whether Pittsburgh can keep the middle protected and force low-danger shots
If you want a sharper framework for handicapping NHL sides and totals, the NHL betting guide is a solid reference point. And if you’re building a full slate, the NHL previews hub helps you compare similar situational spots across the board.
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Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs Predictions and Best Bets
Toronto is favored, but this is not a “lay the chalk and move on” spot. The Leafs have been struggling to turn chances into goals, and that’s the kind of profile that keeps underdogs alive deep into games. If Toronto’s back-end injuries show up in the form of messy breakouts or penalties, Pittsburgh has a very real path to steal this at a plus price.
My lean is Pittsburgh on the moneyline. You’re paying for Toronto’s talent ceiling, but you’re getting compensated for the current form and the fact that Pittsburgh can keep this game tight at even strength. If you prefer lower variance, the Penguins +1.5 is logical, but the price is heavy enough that it needs to fit your bankroll approach.
On the total, I lean Under 6.5. Toronto’s offense has been running cold, and Pittsburgh without Malkin typically plays a more conservative road game. The biggest risk to the Under is special teams chaos or early goals that crack the pace open, but the default script points to a tighter game than this number implies.
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Penguins moneyline (+114).
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If you’re betting NHL daily, you need more than one opinion and more than one bet type. That’s why tracking today’s NHL picks matters: it’s the fastest way to compare sides, totals, and props across multiple styles instead of forcing a single read.
You can also follow the market’s best performers through the handicapper leaderboard and evaluate different approaches by browsing top sports handicappers. If you want higher-volume coverage and stronger commitment plays, premium picks is the direct path. And if you’re looking beyond tonight and thinking bigger-picture, the Stanley Cup betting guide is useful for tying regular-season form, injuries, and schedule density into futures pricing.
