Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat Picks and Predictions December 26th 2025

Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Betting Preview

Two teams searching for traction meet in Atlanta as Miami and Atlanta open their season series. Both clubs have struggled over the past two weeks, combining for only four wins in their last 20 games. This matchup presents a chance to reset after difficult stretches marked by late-game breakdowns and inconsistent execution.

Miami enters after a 112-91 loss to Toronto, its lowest scoring output of the season. Injuries have thinned the rotation, forcing Norman Powell and Bam Adebayo into heavier offensive roles. Erik Spoelstra stressed the need for defensive commitment after the blowout, pointing to effort and cohesion as the path forward.

Atlanta continues to score but cannot close. The Hawks blew a double-digit fourth-quarter lead Tuesday against Chicago, extending their losing streak to four. Trae Young is still ramping up minutes after missing significant time, while Jalen Johnson has carried the load with near triple-double production every night.

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Line Movement and Odds

Atlanta opened -5 at home and remains favored, with the number holding steady despite both teams’ recent struggles. Miami sits at +5, drawing light interest based on Atlanta’s late-game issues.

The total opened at 229.5 and has dipped slightly to 228, reflecting Miami’s recent offensive downturn and injuries in the backcourt. Moneyline pricing favors the Hawks around -200, with Miami returning roughly +170.

Check the latest movement on the NBA odds board.

Matchup Breakdown

Miami’s path starts on defense. The Heat still show top-five defensive potential when locked in, but scoring becomes a grind without Tyler Herro. Powell must continue to carry usage, while Adebayo’s ability to facilitate from the high post helps generate cleaner looks.

Atlanta’s advantage is creation. Young and Johnson pressure defenses in different ways, and the Hawks rarely struggle to score early. The problem has been interior defense and late-game structure. Without reliable rim protection, Atlanta allows too many second-chance points and paint touches.

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Injuries and Conditions

Miami Heat

• Tyler Herro, toe, out
• Nikola Jovic, elbow, out
• Pelle Larsson, ankle, out

See full Miami Heat injury report.

Atlanta Hawks

• Kristaps Porzingis, illness, out
• Mouhamed Gueye, shoulder, out
• Trae Young, knee management, active

See full Atlanta Hawks injury report.

This game is indoors. No weather impact.

Best Bets and Prediction

Atlanta’s ability to score should hold up at home, but defensive lapses keep Miami within range. The Heat’s injury situation limits their ceiling, yet Atlanta’s closing issues remain a concern.

Projected Score: Hawks 114, Heat 109
Best Bet: Hawks -5
Secondary Lean: Under 228

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