Dallas Mavericks vs Philadelphia 76ers Picks and Predictions January 1st 2026

Dallas Mavericks vs Philadelphia 76ers Betting Preview

Dallas opens the new year at home looking for stability after a rough finish to December. The Mavericks lost five of their final six games of 2025 and dropped a 121-114 decision in Philadelphia on Dec. 20. Late-game execution and perimeter defense continue to be issues, especially during a three-game road trip where Dallas failed to win.

Philadelphia arrives with confidence after back-to-back high-scoring road performances. Tyrese Maxey and rookie VJ Edgecombe continue to close games, and the Sixers have won four straight meetings against Dallas, each by single digits. The spotlight again falls on the rookie matchup between Cooper Flagg and Edgecombe, two players who have faced each other at every level.

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Line Movement and Odds

Philadelphia opened -3 and has been bet up to -4, driven by Dallas’ recent defensive struggles and the Sixers’ late-game success. The Mavericks sit at +4, drawing moderate buyback with Anthony Davis returning.

The total opened at 235.5 and moved to 237, reflecting recent three-point volume against Dallas and Philadelphia’s guard-driven pace. Moneyline pricing favors the Sixers around -175, with Dallas near +150.

Follow live changes on the NBA odds board.

Matchup Breakdown

Dallas needs to defend the arc better. Opponents have hit at least 39 percent from three in back-to-back games, and fouling late has extended deficits. Anthony Davis’ return helps rim protection and rebounding, but perimeter containment remains the swing factor. Cooper Flagg continues to shoulder a large offensive role and has topped 20 points consistently when Dallas stays competitive.

Philadelphia’s advantage is guard play late. Maxey controls tempo and has repeatedly hurt Dallas in the fourth quarter. Edgecombe adds another downhill threat, and the Sixers have been effective flipping games with short defensive bursts that turn into quick points. If they win the turnover battle again, they dictate the finish.

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Injuries and Conditions

Dallas Mavericks

• Anthony Davis, groin, cleared to play
• Kyrie Irving, shoulder, out
• Dereck Lively II, ankle, questionable

See full Dallas Mavericks injury report.

Philadelphia 76ers

• Joel Embiid, knee management, probable
• Kelly Oubre Jr., wrist, probable

See full Philadelphia 76ers injury report.

This game is indoors. No weather impact.

Best Bets and Prediction

Philadelphia’s late-game execution and recent head-to-head edge continue to show up in tight finishes. Dallas improves defensively with Davis back, but perimeter leaks remain a concern against Maxey and Edgecombe.

Projected Score: 76ers 119, Mavericks 114
Best Bet: 76ers -4
Secondary Lean: Over 237

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