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Canadiens vs Stars Picks and Predictions – Sunday January 4, 2026
Montreal heads to Dallas for a Sunday afternoon matchup at the American Airlines Center on January 4, 2026, with puck drop set for 2:00 PM ET on ESPN+. The Canadiens come in at 22-13-6 and sitting third in the Atlantic, while the Stars are 25-9-7 and firmly in the mix near the top of the Central.
Dallas is priced like the superior team, and the market is asking the usual question in this spot: can Montreal’s scoring depth and puck line profile keep them inside +1.5, or does Dallas’ special teams edge create separation that turns a competitive game into a 4-2 finish.
Montreal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars Odds
These are the current betting lines, and bettors should keep tracking updated NHL odds leading into puck drop.
| Team | Moneyline | Puck Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | +178 | +1.5 (-141) | 6.5 (O -104 / U -115) |
| Dallas Stars | -213 | -1.5 (+117) | 6.5 (O -104 / U -115) |
Montreal Canadiens Betting Form
Montreal’s recent form has been competitive, and the ceiling is real because this team can score in bunches when the game opens up. They’ve shown they can finish chances when they get into transition and when their top skill is moving the puck quickly through the middle. That’s how you end up hanging seven in a win like they did against Carolina, and it’s also why they’ve been a strong puck line team as an underdog.
The issue in this matchup is who is actually available. Montreal’s injury list is not cosmetic. Missing multiple forwards impacts the second wave of offense and also affects defensive assignments, especially when you have to play a more conservative road game. Against Dallas, the problem isn’t just “can Montreal score.” It’s whether they can survive the special teams and possession stretches without bleeding an early two-goal deficit.
For a deeper look at recent results and trends, check Montreal Canadiens stats and results. For lineup clarity close to puck drop, monitor the Montreal Canadiens injury report.
Dallas Stars Betting Form
Dallas is coming off a 4-3 loss to Chicago, but that kind of one-goal result doesn’t move my rating much because the Stars’ profile has been strong all season. They score, they defend, and they have one of the best special teams setups in the league. Their power play is a real separator, sitting near the top of the NHL, and that’s a massive edge in games where the favorite is trying to create margin.
At home, Dallas can dictate matchups and manage pace. They don’t need to run-and-gun for 60 minutes. They can play a controlled game, wait for penalties, and let their top unit do damage. The other key point is defensive stability. They’re strong in goals against, which matters against a Montreal team that can finish but may not generate as many high-danger looks in a road spot if they’re short-handed up front.
For schedule context and home splits, use Dallas Stars schedule and stats. For late availability updates, check the Dallas Stars injury report.
Montreal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars Matchup Breakdown
This game is about control and discipline. Montreal’s best chance is turning this into a higher-event game where their skill can trade chances and keep Dallas from settling into a structured home script. If the Canadiens can get early transition looks and stay out of the box, +1.5 stays live deep into the third.
Dallas wants the opposite. The Stars are comfortable grinding out possession, drawing penalties, and letting their power play create the first crack in the game. Montreal has been an over team at times because they can score and they can give up quality looks when the structure breaks. Dallas is exactly the type of opponent that punishes those breakdowns, especially if Montreal’s blue line is under pressure and their forward group is missing key two-way pieces.
The total at 6.5 comes down to game state. If Montreal scores first or if the game turns into special teams trading, over becomes very live. If Dallas scores early and can sit in the driver’s seat, this can trend under because the Stars are fine playing a controlled 3-2 or 4-2 type win without opening the ice.
Montreal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars Predictions and Best Bets
I lean Dallas on the moneyline. The Stars are simply the more complete team right now, and their power play edge is the cleanest path to separation against an underdog dealing with real availability issues. Even if Montreal plays well at 5v5, one bad penalty sequence can swing the game.
I’m not forcing the Dallas puck line at plus money because Montreal has been competitive as a dog, and their +1.5 profile makes sense if you think this is a one-goal game late. But if you’re playing Dallas, the safer angle is to take the win and avoid needing margin.
On the total, I lean under 6.5. Montreal can score, but Dallas has the defensive structure to keep them from living in the slot, and the matchup leans toward Dallas controlling pace at home. If Montreal is missing too many offensive pieces, the over becomes reliant on Dallas doing most of the work.
Best Bet: Under 6.5 (-115)
NHL Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
If you’re betting the full Sunday slate, start with the latest NHL picks and compare matchups in the NHL previews hub. That’s the quickest way to line up your strongest leans with the market.
If you prefer to follow proven track records, check the best handicappers and verify who’s trending right now on the handicappers leaderboard. If you want packaged plays and full-card access, browse options on buy picks.
For bettors tightening up process and focusing on what matters most at 5v5 and on special teams, the NHL betting guide is a strong reference, and the Stanley Cup betting guide helps frame longer-horizon angles as the season moves toward the playoff race.
