NFL Previews 
MLB Previews 
NBA Previews 
NHL Previews 
Soccer Previews 
The Tampa Bay Lightning play host to the Florida Panthers tonight at Benchmark International Arena for a high-stakes installment of the Sunshine State rivalry. Tampa Bay currently sits atop the Eastern Conference with an elite 36-14-4 record, recently extending their dominant run with a gritty 4-3 overtime win against Buffalo. The Lightning have been nearly untouchable over the last few weeks, winning nine of their last ten games. With a chance to widen their lead in the Atlantic Division before the Olympic break, the Bolts enter this 7:30 PM ET matchup on ESPN+ with the wind at their backs.
Florida heads north to Tampa with a 29-24-3 record, desperately needing to stabilize their season after slipping to 12th in the conference. While the Panthers did manage to snap a four-game skid with a wild 5-4 win over Boston on Wednesday, they are now playing the second half of a back-to-back with travel. Paul Maurice’s group is currently nine points out of a wild-card spot and has been decimated by injuries to their core leadership. Facing the league’s top-seeded team while fatigued is a brutal situational spot for a Florida squad that has struggled to prevent goals throughout the winter.
Every Pick. Every Sport. All Verified.
Follow sharp cappers across NFL, NBA, MLB, and more
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers Odds
The betting market heavily favors the home side, with Tampa Bay opening as a significant favorite. Bettors should monitor the latest NHL odds as puck drop approaches, as lines for the Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers odds have already seen juice movement on the total.
| Team | Moneyline | Puck Line | Total |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | -199 | -1.5 (+130) | O 6.0 (-112) |
| Florida Panthers | +165 | +1.5 (-155) | U 6.0 (-108) |
Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Form
Tampa Bay has been the most consistent money-maker in the NHL over the last month. Their offense ranks 8th in the league, largely powered by Nikita Kucherov, who has already eclipsed 90 points this season. What makes the Lightning truly terrifying right now is their defensive discipline; they allow only 2.54 goals per game, the second-best mark in the league. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been in peak form, entering tonight with a .918 save percentage and looking every bit like the Vezina candidate he’s been for years.
The depth of this roster is being tested, though they’ve handled it much better than their rivals. The Tampa Bay Lightning injury report currently lists Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli as out, which leaves a hole in their top-six center rotation. However, Jake Guentzel and Brandon Hagel have more than made up for the lost production. Tampa Bay is 17-9-0 at home and has been particularly lethal as a favorite, where they rarely play down to their competition. You can find more of their home/road splits on the Tampa Bay Lightning stats and results page.
Florida Panthers Betting Form
The Panthers are a team currently held together by duct tape and Sam Reinhart’s scoring. While they rank 9th in the league in shots per game, they sit 24th in goals allowed, a recipe for the inconsistent results they’ve seen lately. Playing their third game in four nights, the Panthers will likely show some heavy legs in the third period. Sergei Bobrovsky is the projected starter, but he has been left exposed by a defensive core that has struggled with zone exits and high-danger turnovers. For a closer look at their recent schedule, visit the Florida Panthers schedule and stats section.
The injury situation in Sunrise is reaching a critical point. The Florida Panthers injury report confirms that captain Aleksander Barkov and defenseman Seth Jones are out, along with Dmitry Kulikov and Jonah Gadjovich. Brad Marchand and Anton Lundell are currently listed as day-to-day, and while they played Wednesday, their effectiveness while nursing “undisclosed” issues is a concern. Florida has actually been a decent bet as an underdog this year, winning 10 of 14 such spots, but those wins usually came when the roster was significantly healthier than it is tonight.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers Matchup Breakdown
This game likely comes down to how well Florida’s tired legs can handle Tampa Bay’s transition game. The Lightning love to capitalize on turnovers, and a fatigued Panthers defense is prone to making them. Special teams also favor the home side; Tampa Bay’s power play remains a top-10 unit, while Florida’s penalty kill has dipped during this recent stretch of defensive absences.
- Tampa Bay is 9-1 in their last 10 games and 100% on the puck line as underdogs this season.
- Florida has hit the Over in 7 of their last 10 games, largely due to poor goal prevention.
- The Lightning allow 2.54 goals per game (2nd in NHL) compared to Florida’s 3.27 (24th).
- Vasilevskiy is 26-7-3 with a 2.14 GAA over his last 36 starts.
Bettors might want to look at the first-period lines here. Florida often starts fast but fades late on the second half of back-to-backs. If you’re looking to dive deeper into these situational spots, our advanced NHL betting strategies guide offers a breakdown of rest-advantage impacts. You can also monitor the Stanley Cup odds predictions to see how these two teams are trending as the playoffs approach.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers Predictions and Best Bets
The price on Tampa Bay is steep at -199, but it’s the only logical side to take here. Florida is too banged up and too tired to reliably slow down a Lightning team that is clicking at a historic rate. My model projects a 4-2 or 4-1 victory for the Lightning, which makes the puck line (+130) the most appealing way to play this from a value perspective. The Panthers’ defensive struggles against high-end talent like Kucherov are well-documented, and playing with a thin blue line only exacerbates the problem.
Regarding the total, the Under 6.0 at -108 is a sneaky play. While Florida tends to play high-scoring games, Vasilevskiy has been a brick wall lately, and Tampa’s defensive structure is designed to limit exactly the kind of rush chances Florida relies on. If the Lightning get an early lead, expect them to lock it down. For more insight into betting totals, visit our NHL betting guide page.
Best Bet: Tampa Bay Lightning puck line -1.5 (+130).
UP TO $250 BONUS BET
The Best Live In-Game Betting
21+ Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
NHL Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
Late-season rivalry games are where the pros separate themselves from the pack. Our team at ScoresAndStats provides today’s NHL picks for every game on the board, using deep-dive data to find the edges the public misses. You can browse our free NHL picks or check the handicapper leaderboard to find an expert who specializes in Atlantic Division matchups.
If you’re looking for a more personalized approach, you can buy expert picks or follow our top sports handicappers to see their full betting cards. We offer premium NHL picks that include player props and period derivatives to help you maximize your return on investment.
