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The Miami Heat head to the Smoothie King Center on Wednesday night for a cross-conference battle against the New Orleans Pelicans at 8:00 PM ET. This marks the final game for both franchises before the All-Star break, and both are desperate to enter the layoff with some positive momentum. Miami comes in with a 28-27 record but has been reeling lately, losing three of its last four games. Most recently, the Heat dropped a 115-111 decision to the Utah Jazz at home, a game where they were noticeably thin in the rotation and struggled to protect the paint.
New Orleans sits at 15-40 on the year, but their record belies how they have played of late. The Pelicans are currently on a two-game winning streak, including a dominant 120-94 blowout of the Sacramento Kings on Monday. Under interim head coach James Borrego, New Orleans has leaned into a transition-heavy offense that produced 34 fastbreak points in their last outing. While they are well out of the playoff picture, the Pelicans are playing loose and have seen a massive surge from Trey Murphy III, who has been setting franchise records from behind the arc over the last week.
Despite the gap in their overall records, the oddsmakers have installed New Orleans as a slight 1.5-point home favorite. This is largely due to the massive injury cloud hanging over Erik Spoelstra’s squad, which has forced the Heat to utilize nearly 20 different starting lineups this season. With a total set at 231.5, bettors should expect a high-paced affair, as both teams have been trending toward the over in recent weeks.
New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat Odds
The betting lines for this matchup reflect a near pick’em scenario, with the Pelicans receiving a small bump for home-court advantage and Miami’s health issues. It is always wise to check the latest NBA odds before tip-off, as a single injury update could flip this game to Miami being the favorite.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Miami Heat | +101 | +1.5 (-111) | O 231.5 (-115) |
| New Orleans Pelicans | -121 | -1.5 (-110) | U 231.5 (-105) |
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Miami Heat Betting Form
Miami’s biggest opponent right now isn’t the Pelicans; it is their own availability. The Heat have been decimated in the backcourt and will once again be without Tyler Herro and Norman Powell. This has placed an immense burden on Bam Adebayo to carry the load on both ends. Adebayo was vocal after the loss to Utah, calling for more urgency from a team that has a habit of “going with the flow” until they find themselves in a double-digit hole. You can find more situational trends on the Miami Heat stats and results page.
The supporting cast has been a revolving door, though rookie Kasparas Jakucionis has emerged as a reliable sniper, shooting nearly 47% from deep. However, the lack of depth was exposed on Monday when Utah outscored Miami 54-30 in the paint. The Miami Heat injury report is the most important factor to watch here; beyond the confirmed absences of Herro, Powell, and Pelle Larsson, forward Andrew Wiggins is listed as questionable with toe inflammation. If Wiggins sits, the Heat lose their leading scorer from the last game, leaving them incredibly vulnerable on the wing.
New Orleans Pelicans Betting Form
The Pelicans are finally seeing what their offense can look like when Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III are clicking. Murphy has been on a historic tear, making 23 three-pointers over his last three games. This perimeter threat has opened up the floor for Williamson, who finished with 18 points and six assists in the win over Sacramento. While they are 27th in the league in threes made per game, their recent form suggests they are successfully hunting better looks. Check the New Orleans Pelicans schedule and stats for more on their home-court performance.
Defense remains the primary concern for New Orleans, as they give up over 120 points per game. However, Borrego has been preaching that disruptive defense leads to transition offense, and they proved that against the Kings. The New Orleans Pelicans injury report is relatively light compared to Miami’s, with Micah Peavy listed as questionable and Dejounte Murray still sidelined. Playing with high intensity and a “nothing to lose” attitude, the Pelicans have covered the spread in five of their last nine games, showing they are a dangerous out for teams with winning records.
New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat Matchup Breakdown
This game presents a significant contrast in current momentum and physical health. Miami is a veteran-led team that is clearly exhausted from a grueling schedule and constant lineup changes, while New Orleans is playing their best basketball of the season.
- Transition vs. Half-Court: New Orleans wants to run. They scored 34 fastbreak points on Monday. Miami, meanwhile, leads the league in possessions but often struggles to get back on defense when their shots aren’t falling.
- The Paint Battle: Bam Adebayo is one of the few players who can physically match Zion Williamson, but he can’t do it alone. If Miami doesn’t get help-side defense from Kel’el Ware or Simone Fontecchio, Zion will likely repeat Utah’s success in the paint.
- Three-Point Variance: Miami is the 4th highest-scoring team in the league, but they rely heavily on high-volume shooting. If Jakucionis and Duncan Robinson aren’t hitting, they don’t have the interior depth to compensate.
Schedule-wise, both teams are likely looking forward to the break, but Miami’s lack of bodies makes them more susceptible to late-game fatigue. Using an NBA betting guide to evaluate “last game before break” scenarios often points toward the younger, healthier home team.
New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat Predictions and Best Bets
I’m going against the historical trend of Miami dominating this series. While the Heat have won 10 of the last 11 meetings, this is not the same Heat team. Without Herro and Powell, and with Wiggins potentially sidelined or limited, Miami simply lacks the scoring punch to keep up with a Pelicans team that is finally healthy at the top of the roster. New Orleans has the size to challenge Adebayo and the speed to burn Miami’s limited bench in transition.
I also love the Over 231.5 in this spot. Both teams have shown a complete lack of defensive resistance lately, and the Pelicans’ offense is firing on all cylinders with Murphy’s shooting. Miami’s aggressive playstyle leads to a high number of possessions, and against a New Orleans defense allowing 120 points per game, the scoreboard should be moving early and often. Perhaps Miami keeps it close for three quarters, but the Pelicans’ depth and home-court energy should prevail.
Best Bet: New Orleans Pelicans -1.5 (-110).
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NBA Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
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