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Loyola Marymount Lions vs Pepperdine Waves Picks and Predictions – Saturday, February 14, 2026
Loyola Marymount heads to Malibu for a West Coast Conference matchup with Pepperdine at Firestone Fieldhouse on Saturday, February 14, 2026. With LMU laying points on the road, the betting market is saying the Lions are the more stable team right now, while Pepperdine is still searching for a clean 40-minute performance that holds up on both ends.
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This game also comes with real urgency in the WCC standings. Loyola Marymount has been trying to climb out of the lower half of the league and stack wins that matter before the conference tournament, and recent form suggests they are trending in the right direction. Pepperdine is stuck in a rough stretch and needs a response game, especially at home, where energy and pace can change quickly if the Waves string together stops and get easy points.
From a handicapping standpoint, you are balancing two things: LMU’s current confidence and structure versus Pepperdine’s volatility and desperation. The line is not massive, but it is big enough that you need a clear read on whether Pepperdine can keep this close for four quarters or whether LMU’s steadier shot quality and defensive stretches can create separation.
Loyola Marymount Lions vs Pepperdine Waves Odds
These are the current betting lines for this matchup, and bettors should monitor movement and updated numbers on the latest college basketball odds page.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loyola Marymount Lions | -249 | -5.5 (-113) | 144.5 |
| Pepperdine Waves | +193 | +5.5 (-110) | 144.5 |
Loyola Marymount Lions Betting Form
Loyola Marymount has played its best basketball in short bursts this season, and the last couple of weeks have looked more like a team that knows what it wants on offense. When LMU is right, the possessions are organized, the shot selection stays inside the game plan, and they get enough stops to keep their offense from feeling like it has to score every time down. That is important when you are laying points on the road, because road covers usually come from controlling the ugly stretches, not just from having the better offense.
The betting angle with LMU is whether their recent efficiency holds when the pace changes. Pepperdine will try to speed this up, and LMU cannot afford live-ball turnovers that turn into runouts. If the Lions keep their turnover count manageable and continue to generate clean looks early in the clock without forcing, the -5.5 makes sense because it puts pressure on Pepperdine to execute in the half court. You can track how LMU has been performing game to game, including results and trends that matter for bettors, on the Loyola Marymount Lions stats and results page.
Availability can swing a spread like this quickly, especially for teams that rely on a tight rotation. I am not projecting any specific absences here, but it is still worth checking the Loyola Marymount Lions injury report close to tip so you are not surprised by a late scratch or minutes restriction that affects ball handling, rim protection, or late-game free throw shooting.
Pepperdine Waves Betting Form
Pepperdine has been stuck in a skid, and that shows up most clearly in how quickly games can tilt against them when the defense leaks. The Waves have had stretches where the offense is fine, but if they give up second-chance points or fail to get back in transition, opponents can rip off a run that forces Pepperdine into rushed shots and foul trouble. That is the cycle that turns a competitive first half into a double-digit deficit early in the second.
At home, Pepperdine’s path to covering is usually tied to tempo and confidence. Firestone Fieldhouse can help if the Waves get early stops and turn them into points, because the pace increases and the game becomes more possession-driven than execution-driven. That matters as a home underdog, since +5.5 becomes very live if Pepperdine can keep the game from settling into long, half-court possessions where every LMU trip ends in a high-quality look. For a broader snapshot of results and how Pepperdine has played across different styles, the Pepperdine Waves schedule and stats page is the best quick reference.
Pepperdine also needs its rotation to be stable to keep the defensive effort consistent, because chasing shooters and protecting the paint takes legs. Before betting the side or total, check the Pepperdine Waves injury report for any late updates that could impact pace, ball pressure, or bench minutes, especially if a primary handler or a key rebounder is limited.
Loyola Marymount Lions vs Pepperdine Waves Matchup Breakdown
This matchup starts with pace control. Pepperdine’s best chance to hang around is to turn this into a higher-possession game where they can generate quick scores, get to the line, and avoid long half-court droughts. Loyola Marymount’s best chance to cover is to stay patient, force Pepperdine to defend late into the clock, and keep the Waves from getting easy points that build belief. If LMU dictates tempo, the spread feels short. If Pepperdine creates chaos, +5.5 becomes very live.
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Shot profile is another key. LMU can cover road numbers when it gets consistently good looks without relying on one hot shooting variable. That typically means paint touches, kick-outs to in-rhythm shooters, and avoiding the one-pass quick three that leads to transition the other way. Pepperdine, meanwhile, cannot afford empty possessions that start and end on the perimeter. If the Waves are not attacking the rim enough to draw fouls or collapse the defense, they will struggle to keep pace with a favorite that is content to trade solid possession for solid possession.
Turnovers and offensive rebounding are the swing stats that often decide games like this. Pepperdine needs extra possessions to offset any efficiency gap, and the easiest way to get them is to force turnovers or crash the glass. Loyola Marymount’s focus has to be possession security, because every live-ball giveaway is basically a two-point swing in the wrong direction. If LMU wins the turnover battle and finishes defensive possessions with rebounds, it forces Pepperdine to win with shot-making alone, and that is a harder way to cover as an underdog.
Late-game execution also matters because this line sits in the middle range where both outcomes are realistic. If LMU is up six to nine points late, Pepperdine will be pushing pace and likely extending the game with fouls, which can create backdoor opportunities. That makes free throw shooting and inbound execution important for a road favorite, while Pepperdine needs to avoid the quick, low-quality three that feels urgent but wastes a possession.
Loyola Marymount Lions vs Pepperdine Waves Predictions and Best Bets
My lean is Loyola Marymount on the spread. The number is not tiny, but it reflects a real difference in current stability, and LMU’s recent form suggests they are playing with more structure on both ends. Pepperdine’s home court gives them a puncher’s chance, but the Waves have not shown consistent defensive stops for long stretches, and that is a problem against a favorite that can win without needing a track meet.
The moneyline prices are where they should be. Pepperdine at +193 is attractive only if you believe the Waves can win the turnover margin and create a faster game, because that is the clearest path to flipping the script. LMU at -249 is more of a parlay piece than a standalone bet, because a mid-major road favorite can still get dragged into a one-possession finish even when it is the better team. If you like LMU, the spread is the cleaner expression of the handicap.
On the total, 144.5 is a number that assumes decent pace and a fairly normal shot-making night. The over case is straightforward: Pepperdine pushes tempo, LMU scores efficiently enough to keep up, and the free throw count rises late if it stays close. The under case is also real: LMU slows the game, forces longer possessions, and Pepperdine’s offense hits one or two droughts that are hard to erase without transition points. For me, the side is stronger than the total, but I lean slightly under because the favorite’s best path is a more controlled game with fewer empty trips and fewer runouts.
The biggest risk to the LMU spread is a Pepperdine burst that turns this into a high-possession game where the Waves are playing downhill and feeding off the crowd. The biggest risk to the under is late fouling if LMU is protecting a lead. Still, the most likely game script is LMU playing the more consistent basketball, limiting mistakes, and doing enough to separate before the final two minutes.
Best Bet: Loyola Marymount Lions -5.5 (-113).
NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
If you are betting college basketball daily, it helps to compare your read with multiple angles rather than relying on one approach. The today’s college basketball picks hub is a useful way to scan the slate, see where handicappers align, and spot games where the market is drawing strong disagreement on sides and totals.
This is also the part of the season where futures and awards markets can move quickly with one big week or one unexpected skid. If you like tracking value shifts tied to player performance, John Wooden Award odds and predictions is a solid reference point. And if you are thinking bigger picture into March, the college basketball championship odds page keeps the title market in view as the bracket picture sharpens.
For bettors who want to tighten process, not just pick games, the advanced betting strategies section is a good refresher on bankroll discipline, price sensitivity, and how to avoid overreacting to one night of shooting variance.
