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St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs Stonehill Skyhawks Picks and Predictions – February 26, 2026
St. Francis (PA) heads to Merkert Gymnasium in South Easton, Massachusetts on Thursday, February 26, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET to face Stonehill in an NEC matchup that matters for positioning even if neither side has been consistent. Stonehill gets the home floor and the favorite tag, while the Red Flash arrive looking like a team that has had to fight for every clean stretch of offense all season.
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This matchup also comes with a little extra context because these teams have already seen each other. When you get a rematch in league play, the betting angle often shifts away from “who is better” and toward “who can adjust,” especially around shot quality and turnover prevention. That matters here because the market is pricing Stonehill to win and cover at home, not just survive.
From a totals standpoint, 140.5 is a number that usually lands in the middle of a lot of NEC game scripts. It is high enough that you need real efficiency to clear it, but low enough that a few empty trips and a whistle-free stretch can pull the game under quickly. If this stays tight into the last four minutes, late fouling becomes the swing factor for both the spread and the total.
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs Stonehill Skyhawks Odds
These are the current betting lines for this matchup, and bettors should monitor updated pricing and movement throughout the day at the latest college basketball odds.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Francis (PA) Red Flash | +176 | +5.5 (-119) | O/U 140.5 (-113) |
| Stonehill Skyhawks | -227 | -5.5 (-107) | O/U 140.5 (-113) |
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash Betting Form
St. Francis (PA) has been a tricky team to price because the effort level has not been the issue, but the margin for error has been thin. When the Red Flash are competitive, it is usually because they are getting to the free throw line, keeping turnovers manageable, and finding just enough perimeter shot making to stay attached. When they fall behind, it is often driven by short offensive droughts that turn a two-possession deficit into double digits before the next media timeout.
As a road underdog catching +5.5, St. Francis (PA) does not need a perfect offensive night to cover, but it does need to avoid live-ball giveaways. Those are the possessions that kill underdog tickets because they become instant points the other way, and they also inflate the opponent’s confidence at home. The Red Flash can live with missed shots, but they cannot live with empty trips that never produce a shot attempt.
If you want a quick way to track how St. Francis (PA) has been trending for bettors and where the results have been landing relative to market expectation, start with St. Francis (PA) Red Flash stats and results. Before you bet them in either direction, you also need to confirm availability and rotation clarity through the St. Francis (PA) Red Flash injury report, because one missing ball-handler can swing both pace and late-game execution.
Stonehill Skyhawks Betting Form
Stonehill’s profile at home usually looks cleaner than it does on the road, and that is the main reason they are laying points here. When the Skyhawks are playing their best basketball, they control tempo better, they do not give away as many transition chances, and they get more consistent shot volume from possession to possession. That stability is exactly what you want when you are laying a mid-single digit number.
The challenge for Stonehill backers is that -5.5 still requires a real close. If this game is tied or within a possession inside the final three minutes, you are no longer betting “Stonehill is better.” You are betting “Stonehill will execute.” That means getting a good look without turning it over, and finishing defensive possessions with rebounds so St. Francis (PA) does not steal extra shots late.
For a deeper look at recent results and team trends that matter for spread and total betting, check Stonehill Skyhawks schedule and stats. And because late-season availability can flip a matchup quickly, especially for a team expected to carry the game as a favorite, keep an eye on the Stonehill Skyhawks injury report.
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs Stonehill Skyhawks Matchup Breakdown
This game is shaped by two competing forces: St. Francis (PA) wants to keep the margin tight and win the “possession battle,” while Stonehill wants to avoid chaos and make the Red Flash score in the half court. If Stonehill takes care of the ball, it reduces the easiest points St. Francis (PA) can get, and it forces the underdog to string together multiple stops plus made shots to make up ground.
Shot profile matters, too. If Stonehill is generating clean catch-and-shoot looks and getting the ball into the paint often enough to draw fouls, the favorite has a clear path to cover because free throws stabilize scoring late. If the Skyhawks are living on tough jumpers, it increases variance and creates a more realistic backdoor window for St. Francis (PA), especially if the Red Flash can manufacture a couple of extra possessions with offensive rebounds.
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The other swing factor is pace. A total of 140.5 suggests the market expects a fairly normal possession count, but tempo can still shift quickly if St. Francis (PA) turns the ball over and Stonehill converts in transition. If the game stays mostly half court, the under becomes more attractive and points become more valuable, which typically benefits the underdog side of the spread.
Finally, keep the rematch angle in mind. When teams have already played once, coaching adjustments around ball-screen coverage and primary scoring options tend to show up early. If St. Francis (PA) can take away Stonehill’s first option and force the Skyhawks into plan B offense, it keeps the game in a range where +5.5 is live deep into the second half.
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs Stonehill Skyhawks Predictions and Best Bets
My lean is Stonehill -5.5. The market is telling you the home floor matters here, and the biggest difference between these teams in this spot is that Stonehill is more likely to string together stable possessions at both ends. If the Skyhawks avoid turnovers and do not let St. Francis (PA) get easy run-outs, they should be able to build a working margin in the middle 20 minutes.
The case for St. Francis (PA) +5.5 is real, but it is more game-script dependent. You are basically betting on a tight fourth quarter where every possession matters, and where the Red Flash can keep the game within one run even if they are not shooting well. That is a viable angle if you expect Stonehill to struggle with shot quality or if the pace slows into a grind.
On the total, I lean under 140.5. The simplest path under is a half-court game where both teams have a few scoring droughts, and neither side is living at the free throw line. The over becomes much more live if the game turns into a whistle-heavy finish with extended fouling, or if either team is scoring efficiently in transition off turnovers.
I prefer the side more than the total because the spread handicap is directly tied to Stonehill’s control variables: ball security, rebounding to end possessions, and getting enough paint touches to avoid long empty stretches. If those show up, Stonehill can cover without needing an outlier shooting night.
Best Bet: Stonehill Skyhawks -5.5 (-107).
NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
If you are betting multiple games on a busy college slate, it helps to keep your process consistent and avoid forcing action just because there is a number on the board. One way to stay disciplined is to compare your positions with today’s college basketball picks and see where the strongest opinions are lining up across the card.
Late February is also when futures markets start reacting quickly to form, availability, and seeding paths. If you like pairing nightly sides and totals with longer-term angles, keeping tabs on the John Wooden Award odds and predictions and the broader title market via college basketball championship odds can help you spot value before the market fully adjusts.
And if you want to sharpen how you approach spreads in the key 4 to 7 range, where late-game execution decides everything, building better habits around timing, bankroll, and line value through advanced betting strategies can make your card tighter over the long run.
