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Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Picks and Predictions – Saturday, February 28, 2026
Houston heads to Miami on Saturday afternoon riding real momentum, and the recent wins have come in different scripts. The Rockets erased a 19-point deficit in Orlando on Thursday in the second night of a back-to-back, and Reed Sheppard’s late shot-making has turned into a steady theme during this stretch.
Miami is trying to stabilize. The Heat have dropped two straight and haven’t been able to stack wins for long stretches, which keeps them stuck in that crowded middle of the East. The bigger concern for this matchup is availability, with Norman Powell expected out after leaving Thursday’s game with a groin injury.
Smart NBA picks start here.
Let the numbers guide your bets.
Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Odds
Check movement and shop the number on the latest NBA odds page before tip.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets | -163 | -3.5 (-111) | O 224.5 (-111) |
| Miami Heat | +137 | +3.5 (-111) | U 224.5 (-111) |
Houston Rockets Betting Form
Houston’s current form is defined by resilience and late-game execution. The Rockets have been able to win even when they don’t control the game start-to-finish, and Sheppard’s scoring burst has added another layer next to Kevin Durant’s primary creation.
That matters in Miami because this can turn into a possession-by-possession fourth quarter. If Houston continues to get clean looks late and avoids the sloppy stretches that fuel Heat runs, the Rockets have the steadier scoring profile right now.
For recent results, splits, and game logs, use the Houston Rockets team page. Injury Report: monitor any late rest or rotation changes coming out of the back-to-back.
Miami Heat Betting Form
Miami’s offense can look sharp when the shot-making is there, but the Heat have been inconsistent closing games. They rallied late against Philadelphia on Thursday, took a brief lead, then couldn’t finish the job, which is the exact scenario that burns bettors laying small numbers at home.
Injury Report: Norman Powell is expected out with a groin injury, and that removes a major scoring piece and another ball-handler from the mix. Miami can still win with Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro driving the offense, but the margin tightens when one of your top options disappears.
For home trends and recent game logs, use the Miami Heat team page.
Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Matchup Breakdown
This matchup sets up as a tempo and shot-quality battle.
Houston’s edge is that they’ve been getting timely shot-making from multiple spots. If Miami sells out to slow Durant, the Rockets have shown they can still get points when Sheppard is aggressive and the ball moves quickly into open threes.
Miami’s path is to win the physical areas and keep Houston out of rhythm. If the Heat control the glass, force tougher half-court possessions, and turn this into a grind, they can keep the spread in play deep into the fourth.
The total is number-sensitive. Miami missing Powell pushes the game toward fewer easy points, but Houston’s recent scoring bursts can still lift an over if Miami keeps pace for long enough.
Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Predictions and Best Bets
With Powell out, Miami’s scoring margin shrinks, and Houston has been the more reliable late-game offense during this run. Laying a short number on the road isn’t always comfortable, but this is the type of spot where the healthier team with more live shot creators tends to dictate the final eight minutes.
Best Bet: Rockets -3.5 (-111)
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Picks and Handicappers
If you’re building a Saturday card, start with the full slate on NBA picks and compare matchup context on the NBA previews hub so you’re not betting one game in a vacuum. The NBA expert betting guide is also useful when you’re deciding whether to play a side, a total, or stay patient and wait for a better number. Once you’ve narrowed your targets, track who’s consistently beating the market on the handicappers leaderboard, and if you want to scale up with stronger alignment across the slate, you can buy picks and keep your card centered on proven edges instead of chasing last result.
