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Our number leans to the Islanders, but not by enough. No bet.
The Toronto Maple Leafs and the New York Islanders are both -110 at DraftKings, which is a 50.0% chance each once the margin is removed. Our number gives the Islanders 53.7%. The gap is 3.7 points. A side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more, so this is a pass.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Maple Leafs went 18-15-8 at home, meaning 18 wins, 15 regulation losses and 8 losses after regulation. That is a 43.9% home win rate over 41 games. The Islanders went 21-17-3 on the road and lost 20 of 41, a 48.8% road loss rate. The average is 46.3% for the Maple Leafs, 53.7% for the Islanders.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. Two prices of -110 carry equal margin, and removing it leaves 50.0% each.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Maple Leafs and 41 road games for the Islanders.
The Maple Leafs at home, the Islanders on the road
The Maple Leafs at home scored 3.29 goals a game and allowed 3.54. The Islanders on the road scored 2.76 and allowed 2.90. The Maple Leafs’ home games were the higher-scoring ones, and they lost more of them than they won.
The Islanders finished 43-34-5 with 91 points and were outscored by 0.10 goals a game. They played 43 games decided by one goal and went 27-11-5 in them. The Maple Leafs finished 32-36-14 with 78 points, outscored by 0.56 a game. Neither team reached the playoffs.
The Islanders won all three meetings in 2025-26: 4-3 in overtime at home on 4 January, 3-1 at Toronto on 17 March, and 5-3 at home on 9 April. Three games are a small sample, and the method does not use them.
The Maple Leafs also play at home the night before, against the Montreal Canadiens on 29 September. The method does not account for back-to-back games.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 3.7 points against a 5-point threshold.
Both prices opened at -110 and had not moved when read on 24 September 2026 at 01:10 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.
What changes it
A longer price on either side. The Islanders become a bet at +106 or longer, whatever the Maple Leafs are priced at. The Maple Leafs become a bet at +143 or longer.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 30 September. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +114 and under -135. The Maple Leafs’ games went over 6.5 in 46 of 82. The Islanders’ went over in 36 of 82, and their road games averaged 5.66 goals. The Maple Leafs’ home games averaged 6.83.
The two over rates, 56.1% and 43.9%, average 50.0%. The over at +114 is priced at 44.9% with the margin removed, a gap of 5.1 points. Lean over 6.5 at +114, and it is a thin lean: the two teams point in opposite directions and the average only just clears 5.
The puck line has the Maple Leafs -1.5 at +215 and the Islanders +1.5 at -265. The Maple Leafs won by two goals or more in 18 of 82 games. The Islanders lost by two or more in 23 of 82. Averaged, Maple Leafs -1.5 lands 25.0% of the time against 30.4% priced. Lean Islanders +1.5 at -265, a price that returns little.
Islanders at Maple Leafs, Wednesday 30 September, 7:30 PM ET, Scotiabank Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 01:10 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
