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Our number and the price are one point apart. No bet.
The New York Islanders are -120 and the New Jersey Devils +100 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 52.2% chance for the Islanders. Our number is 51.2%. The gap is 1.0 point, and a side is a bet only when the gap is 5 or more.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Islanders went 22-17-2 at home, meaning 22 wins, 17 regulation losses and 2 losses after regulation. That is a 53.7% home win rate over 41 games. The Devils went 21-20-0 on the road and lost 20 of 41, a 48.8% road loss rate. The average is 51.2% for the Islanders, 48.8% for the Devils.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. Removed from -120 and +100, it leaves the Islanders at 52.2% and the Devils at 47.8%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Islanders and 41 road games for the Devils. The Islanders play at Toronto on 30 September and the Devils at home to the Philadelphia Flyers on 1 October, and neither game is in these figures.
The Islanders at home, the Devils on the road
The Islanders at home scored 2.93 goals a game and allowed 2.98. The Devils on the road scored 2.66 and allowed 3.17. Neither side outscored its opponents in these games.
Every one of the Devils’ 20 road losses came in regulation, so the standings and this method read their road record, 21-20-0, the same way. Set beside the Islanders’ 53.7% at home, it gives a number within a point of the price.
The Islanders finished 43-34-5 with 91 points and were outscored by 0.10 goals a game. They played 43 games decided by one goal and went 27-11-5 in them. The Devils finished 42-37-3 with 87 points, outscored by 0.30 a game. Neither team reached the playoffs.
The Islanders won all four meetings in 2025-26: 3-2 in overtime at New Jersey on 11 November, 2-1 at home on 24 December, 9-0 at home on 7 January and 3-1 at New Jersey on 6 February. Four games are a small sample, and the method does not use them.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 1.0 point against a 5-point threshold.
The Islanders opened at -115 and the Devils at -105. Read on 24 September 2026 at 04:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, they were -120 and +100. At the opening prices the gap was 0.1 points.
What changes it
A much longer price on either side. The Devils become a bet at +129 or longer, whatever the Islanders are priced at. The Islanders become a bet at +117 or longer.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 3 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -130 and under +110. The Islanders’ games went over 5.5 in 41 of 82 and the Devils’ in 40 of 82. The Islanders’ home games averaged 5.91 goals, the Devils’ road games 5.83.
The two over rates, 50.0% and 48.8%, average 49.4%. The over at -130 is priced at 54.3% with the margin removed, 4.9 points toward the under. That is short of 5. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Islanders -1.5 at +195 and the Devils +1.5 at -238. The Islanders won by two goals or more in only 16 of 82 games, and the Devils lost by two or more in 29 of 82. Averaged, Islanders -1.5 lands 27.4% of the time against 32.5% priced. Lean Devils +1.5 at -238, a thin lean at 5.1 points and a price that returns little.
Devils at Islanders, Saturday 3 October, 7:30 PM ET, UBS Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
