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The Flyers won 23 of 41 on the road last season and are priced as underdogs. Take them at +124.
The New Jersey Devils are -148 against the Philadelphia Flyers at +124 at DraftKings, which prices the Flyers to win 42.8% of the time once the margin is removed. Our number is 52.5%. The gap is 9.7 points, and a side is a bet here when the gap is 5 points or more.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Devils went 21-17-3 at home, meaning 21 wins, 17 regulation losses and 3 losses after regulation. That is a 51.2% home win rate over 41 games. The Flyers went 23-14-4 on the road and lost 18 of 41, a 43.9% road loss rate. The average is 47.5% for the Devils, which leaves 52.5% for the Flyers.
The margin is the few points a book adds to both prices so that the two sides add up to more than 100%. Take it out of -148 and +124 and the Devils’ share is 57.2%, the Flyers’ 42.8%.
This is the first week of a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. The only evidence in hand is last season: 41 home games for the Devils and 41 road games for the Flyers.
The Devils at home, the Flyers on the road
The Flyers on the road scored 3.39 goals a game and allowed 3.17. The Devils at home scored 2.95 and allowed 3.02. The Flyers won more on the road than at home last season: 23 games away, 20 in Philadelphia.
Over the full season the Flyers finished 43-27-12 with 98 points and outscored opponents by 0.09 goals a game. They beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-2 in the playoffs, then lost 4-0 to the Carolina Hurricanes. The Devils finished 42-37-3 with 87 points and were outscored by 0.30 a game. They did not reach the playoffs.
The Flyers won all three meetings in 2025-26: 6-3 at home on 23 November, 5-3 at New Jersey on 30 November, and 5-1 at New Jersey on 7 April. Three games are a small sample, and the method does not use them.
The Flyers also play the night before, at home to the Pittsburgh Penguins on 30 September. The method does not account for back-to-back games, and that game is not in these figures.
The price
The Devils opened at -155 and the Flyers at +130. Read on 24 September 2026 at 04:31 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, they were -148 and +124. The move has gone toward the Flyers, and it has cut the gap from 10.8 points at the opening prices to 9.7.
Both halves of our number sit above the market’s 42.8% for the Flyers: their 56.1% road win rate, and the 48.8% of home games the Devils lost. Their average clears it by close to twice the threshold.
Pick: Flyers moneyline
Philadelphia Flyers +124. Our number is 52.5%, the market’s is 42.8%, and the 9.7-point gap clears the 5-point threshold.
The sample is 82 games, 41 for each team, all from last season.
What changes it
A further move toward the Flyers. With the book’s margin held at today’s size, the Flyers at +102 still leave a gap of 5.0 points and the bet stands. At +101 the gap is 4.8, and it is a pass.
The other unknown is who plays. This page states nothing about either lineup on 1 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -112 and under -108. The Devils’ games went over 5.5 in 40 of 82 and the Flyers’ in 44 of 82. The Devils’ home games averaged 5.97 goals, the Flyers’ road games 6.56.
Together that is 84 overs in 164 games, 51.2%. With the margin removed, the over at -112 is priced at 50.4%. The gap is 0.8 points. Pass on the total.
The Devils are -1.5 at +170 on the puck line and the Flyers +1.5 at -205. The Devils won by two goals or more in 22 of 82 games, and the Flyers lost by two or more in 22 of 82. Averaged, Devils -1.5 lands 26.8% of the time against 35.5% priced. Lean Flyers +1.5 at -205, and only a lean: the moneyline is the one call this page bets.
Flyers at Devils, Thursday 1 October, 7:00 PM ET, Prudential Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:31 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
