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The Kraken lost 26 of 41 on the road last season. Take the Flames at -115.
The Calgary Flames are -115 and the Seattle Kraken -105 at DraftKings, which prices the Flames to win 51.1% of the time once the margin is out. Our number is 59.8%. The gap is 8.7 points, and a side is a bet here when the gap is 5 points or more.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.
The Flames went 23-13-5 at home last season, which is 23 wins, 13 regulation losses and 5 losses after regulation. That is a 56.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Kraken went 15-20-6 on the road, so they lost 26 of 41, a 63.4% road loss rate. The average of 56.1 and 63.4 is 59.8.
The market’s figure is the moneyline with the margin removed. The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add up to more than 100%. Take it out of -115 and -105 and the Flames’ share is 51.1%.
This is the first week of a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and nothing on this page measures what changed. Last season’s 82 games are the only evidence in hand, and the method uses 41 of them for each team.
The Flames at home, the Kraken on the road
At home, the Flames scored 2.93 goals a game and allowed 2.61. The Kraken on the road scored 2.56 and allowed 3.37. That is 0.37 goals a game more scored by the home side and 0.76 fewer allowed.
The Flames were two different teams by venue. They went 23-13-5 in Calgary and 11-26-4 away, and the method uses only the Calgary half. That half is the one this game is played in.
Across the full season the Flames finished 34-39-9 with 77 points and were outscored by 0.57 goals a game. The Kraken finished 34-37-11 with 79 points, outscored by 0.45 a game. Neither team reached the playoffs.
The teams met three times in 2025-26. The Flames won 4-2 at home on 19 December. The Kraken won the other two, 5-1 at Calgary on 6 January and 4-1 at home on 11 April. Three games prove nothing about a fourth.
The price
The Flames opened at -115 and the Kraken at -105, and both were unchanged when read on 24 September 2026 at 04:31 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN.
Both halves of our number sit above the market’s 51.1%: the 56.1% home win rate and the 63.4% road loss rate. The road half is the larger, and it is the Kraken’s.
Pick: Flames moneyline
Calgary Flames -115. Our number is 59.8%, the market’s is 51.1%, and the 8.7-point gap clears the 5-point threshold.
It rests on 82 games, 41 at home for the Flames and 41 on the road for the Kraken, all from last season.
What changes it
The price. With the book’s margin at today’s size, the Flames at -134 still leave a gap of 5.1 points and the bet stands. At -135 the gap is 4.9, and the call becomes a pass.
The summer is the other thing. A season of home and road results says how these two teams played in 2025-26, and nothing on this page says who is in either lineup on 1 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, with the over and the under both at -110. The Flames’ games went over 5.5 in 43 of 82, and the Kraken’s in 45 of 82. The Flames’ home games averaged 5.54 goals, the Kraken’s road games 5.93.
Together that is 88 overs in 164 games, 53.7%. Two prices of -110 carry equal margin, so the over is priced at 50.0%. The gap is 3.7 points. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Flames -1.5 at +210 and the Kraken +1.5 at -258. The Flames won by two goals or more in 20 of their 82 games, and the Kraken lost by two or more in 32 of 82. Averaged, that is 31.7% against 30.9% priced for Flames -1.5. Pass on the puck line.
Kraken at Flames, Thursday 1 October, 9:00 PM ET, Scotiabank Saddledome. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:31 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
