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The Stars are the right favourite, and -205 is about the right price. No bet.
The Dallas Stars are -205 against the St. Louis Blues at +170 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 64.5% chance for the Stars. Our number is 61.0%. The gap is 3.5 points, and a side is a bet only when the gap is 5 or more.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Stars went 26-11-4 at home last season, meaning 26 wins, 11 regulation losses and 4 losses after regulation. That is a 63.4% home win rate over 41 games. The Blues went 17-19-5 on the road and lost 24 of 41, a 58.5% road loss rate. The average of 63.4 and 58.5 is 61.0.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. Removed from -205 and +170, it leaves the Stars at 64.5% and the Blues at 35.5%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and nothing on this page measures what changed. The only evidence in hand is last season: 41 home games for the Stars and 41 road games for the Blues.
The Stars at home, the Blues on the road
The Stars at home scored 3.29 goals a game and allowed 2.73. The Blues on the road scored 2.80 and allowed 3.22. That is 0.49 goals a game more scored by the home side and 0.49 fewer allowed.
The Stars finished 50-20-12 with 112 points and outscored opponents by 0.64 goals a game. They lost their playoff series 4-2 to the Minnesota Wild. Forty-six of their 82 games were decided by one goal, and they went 28-6-12 in them.
The Blues went 37-33-12 with 86 points and were outscored by 0.33 goals a game. They did not reach the playoffs.
The Stars won three of the four meetings in 2025-26, each by one goal: 3-2 at home on 24 January, 4-3 at St. Louis on 28 January and 5-4 at home on 5 February. The Blues won the first, 3-1 at home on 18 October. Four games are a small sample, and the method does not use them.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 3.5 points against a 5-point threshold.
The Stars opened at -205 and the Blues at +170, and both were the same when read on 24 September 2026 at 04:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.
What changes it
A longer price on the Blues. At +195 or longer, the Blues are a bet whatever the Stars are priced at. The other way, the Stars become a bet at -127 or better, a long way from -205.
The lineups are unknown here. This page states nothing about who plays on 2 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -108 and under -112. The Stars’ games went over 5.5 in 44 of 82 and the Blues’ in 39 of 82. The Stars’ home games and the Blues’ road games both averaged 6.02 goals.
Together that is 83 overs in 164 games, 50.6%. The over is priced at 49.6% with the margin removed, 1.0 point away. Pass on the total.
The puck line is where the numbers and the price part. It has the Stars -1.5 at +120 and the Blues +1.5 at -142. The Stars won by two goals or more in only 22 of 82 games, which follows from all those one-goal games. The Blues lost by two or more in 24 of 82. Averaged, Stars -1.5 comes in 28.0% of the time against 43.7% priced, a gap of 15.7 points. Lean Blues +1.5 at -142. It stays a lean, because the only method this page stakes money on is the moneyline one.
Blues at Stars, Friday 2 October, 9:00 PM ET, American Airlines Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
