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Our number and the price agree to within 2.4 points. No bet.
The Minnesota Wild are -175 against the Boston Bruins at +145 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 60.9% chance for the Wild. Our number is 58.5%. The gap is 2.4 points, and a side is a bet only when the gap is 5 or more.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Wild went 23-10-8 at home last season, meaning 23 wins, 10 regulation losses and 8 losses after regulation. That is a 56.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Bruins went 16-16-9 on the road and lost 25 of 41, a 61.0% road loss rate. The average is 58.5% for the Wild, which leaves 41.5% for the Bruins.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. Removed from -175 and +145, it leaves the Wild at 60.9% and the Bruins at 39.1%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and nothing on this page measures what changed. The only evidence in hand is last season: 41 home games for the Wild and 41 road games for the Bruins. The Wild play at Nashville on 1 October and the Bruins at home to the New York Rangers on 29 September, and neither game is in these figures.
The Wild at home, the Bruins on the road
The Wild at home scored 3.17 goals a game and allowed 2.80. The Bruins on the road scored 3.10 and allowed 3.54. That is 0.07 goals a game more scored by the home side and 0.74 fewer allowed.
Both halves carry losses after regulation. The Wild lost 8 home games that way and the Bruins 9 road games, and the method counts every one as a loss. The Bruins went 29-11-1 at home and 16-16-9 away, so the half this method uses is their weaker one.
The Wild finished 46-24-12 with 104 points and outscored opponents by 0.39 goals a game. They beat the Dallas Stars 4-2 in the playoffs, then lost 4-1 to the Colorado Avalanche. The Bruins finished 45-27-10 with 100 points, outscored opponents by 0.27 a game, and lost their playoff series 4-2 to the Buffalo Sabres.
The teams met twice in 2025-26, and each won at home: the Wild 6-2 on 14 December, the Bruins 6-3 on 28 March. Two games are a small sample, and the method does not use them.
The Bruins also play the night before, at Winnipeg on 2 October. The method does not account for back-to-back games, and that game is not in these figures.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 2.4 points against a 5-point threshold.
The Wild opened at -180 and the Bruins at +150, a gap of 3.1 at those prices. Read on 24 September 2026 at 04:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, they were -175 and +145.
What changes it
A longer price on the Bruins. At +174 or longer, the Bruins are a bet whatever the Wild are priced at. The other way, the Wild become a bet at -115 or better, a long way from -175.
The lineups are unknown here. This page states nothing about who plays on 3 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +124 and under -148. The Wild’s games went over 6.5 in 42 of 82, and so did the Bruins’, 51.2% each. The Wild’s home games averaged 5.97 goals, the Bruins’ road games 6.64.
With the margin removed, the over at +124 is priced at 42.8%. That is 8.4 points below our 51.2%. Lean over 6.5 at +124. It stays a lean, because the only method this page stakes money on is the moneyline one.
The puck line has the Wild -1.5 at +145 and the Bruins +1.5 at -175. The Wild won by two goals or more in 26 of 82 games, and the Bruins lost by two or more in only 19 of 82. Averaged, Wild -1.5 lands 27.4% of the time against 39.1% priced, a gap of 11.7 points. Lean Bruins +1.5 at -175.
Bruins at Wild, Saturday 3 October, 8:00 PM ET, Grand Casino Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
