College Football
College Football · Saturday 10 October
Tulane at Army Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Our number has Army by 4.2. Army is a bet at -1 or shorter, Tulane at +7.5 or longer.
No spread had been posted for this game at DraftKings when we read ESPN on 28 September 2026. Our number is Army by 4.2, and a side becomes a bet only when the spread sits at least 3 points away from it.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Army is 2-3 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 1.2 points a game across 5 games. Tulane is 4-5 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 7.1 a game across 9 games. The difference is 8.3 points. Half of it, rounded, is 4.2.
Army’s five games are one more than the minimum of 4. Tulane’s nine include its playoff game at Ole Miss, which ESPN lists as a road game, so the method counts it.
Tulane on the road
Tulane won 33-31 at South Alabama, 31-14 at Tulsa, 38-32 at Memphis and 37-13 at Temple in 2025. It lost 45-10 at Ole Miss in September 2025 and 41-10 there again in the playoff on 20 December, and 48-26 at UTSA. In 2026 it lost 17-3 at Duke and 31-20 at Kansas State.
The two Ole Miss games carry the average. Together they are -66 of Tulane’s -64. Without them the other seven road games average +0.3, a sum of 2 over 7, and our number would fall to Army by 0.5.
Army at home
The five home games were close but for one. Army beat Charlotte 24-7 and Temple 14-13 in 2025, and lost 45-38 to North Texas and 26-25 to Tulsa. On 12 September it lost 28-24 to South Florida.
Four of the five were decided by 7 points or fewer. A 1.2-point average across five games of that shape proves little about Army at home, beyond the fact that its games there are tight.
2026 so far
Tulane is 2-2, all against FBS teams. It lost 17-3 at Duke, beat South Alabama 28-24, lost 31-20 at Kansas State and beat Southern Miss 24-21 on 26 September. It has scored 18.8 points a game and allowed 23.2.
Army is 2-1. It beat Bryant 59-3, a team outside the FBS, lost 28-24 to South Florida and won 21-17 at Temple on 25 September. Against its two FBS opponents it has scored and allowed 22.5 a game. Army is 1-1 in the American Conference and Tulane 0-0.
Last season
Tulane went 11-3 in 2025 and won by 3.8 a game. It was 7-0 at home and 4-3 on the road, and its season ended with the 41-10 playoff loss at Ole Miss.
Army went 7-6 and won by 2.2 a game. It lost 17-16 to Navy on 13 December and beat UConn 41-16 on 27 December, both at neutral sites. The two teams met once: Tulane won 24-17 at home on 18 October 2025.
The price
There is none yet, for the spread, the total or the moneyline.
ESPN’s FPI gives Army a 56.1% chance to win. That agrees with our number on the winner. It says nothing about the margin a spread would ask for.
Pick: Army -1 or shorter, Tulane +7.5 or longer
Until a line is posted, this is the call. At Army -1 the gap is 3.2 and Army is the bet, and the same holds at a pick’em or with Army getting points. At Tulane +7.5 the gap is 3.3 and Tulane is the bet.
From Army -1.5 to -7 the market sits within 3 points of our 4.2, and the call is a pass. It rests on 14 games, split 5 and 9.
What changes it
The posted line decides the side, and the full page re-reads it the week of the game.
The Ole Miss games are the reason to hold an Army bet lightly. Take those two out and our number is Army by 0.5, and Army -1 is no longer a bet. This page does not state who is available, so check the injury report before you bet.
Tulane at Army, Saturday 10 October, 12:00 PM ET, Michie Stadium, West Point. Prices: none posted at DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.