UEFA Nations League
UEFA Nations League · Tuesday 6 October
Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on Faroe Islands at Kazakhstan. The market makes Kazakhstan the favourite at 38.5%, and nothing in the results these two teams hold can say whether that price is wrong.
DraftKings, read via ESPN on 6 October 2026, 04:35 UTC, has Kazakhstan at +140, the draw at +195 and Faroe Islands at +205. The book’s margin is 8.4 points across the three. Taken out, the prices leave 38.5% for Kazakhstan, 31.3% for the draw and 30.3% for Faroe Islands.
The total is 2.5 goals, with the over at +150 and the under at -190. Without the margin, the over is a 37.9% chance.
Why there is no bet
For club soccer our method is one clause: each side’s expected goals come from its scoring rate at this venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other, both against the league average, in a Poisson model. A side or the draw is a bet when our chance is at least 5 points above the market’s.
That needs a league, where every team plays the same opponents. National teams have none. The results ESPN holds for Kazakhstan and Faroe Islands since September 2024 are Nations League and World Cup qualifying games, spread across divisions and groups of very different strength. A goal against the weakest team in a group counts the same as one against the strongest, and the method has no way to tell them apart.
This Nations League season is too young to fix that. On 6 October, Kazakhstan had played three games in it and Faroe Islands three, fewer than the four we need before any bet.
Kazakhstan at home, Faroe Islands away
Since September 2024, Kazakhstan have played 8 competitive games at home. They won 1, drew 2 and lost 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8: 0.75 and 1.0 a game.
Faroe Islands played 8 away in the same span. The record is 2-1-5, with 5 scored and 9 conceded, or 0.62 and 1.12 a game.
Across every competitive game in that window, Kazakhstan are 2-4-11 in 17 and Faroe Islands are 5-6-6 in 17. Those records include games against sides from other divisions, so they rank neither team.
In Group C3 of this Nations League, on 6 October, Faroe Islands are third with 3 points from 3 games, 3 scored and 3 conceded. Kazakhstan are fourth with 1 point from 3, 3 scored and 5 conceded.
Head to head
ESPN lists four earlier meetings between the two. The latest, on 26 September 2026, ended Faroe Islands 1, Kazakhstan 1.
- 26 September 2026: Faroe Islands 1, Kazakhstan 1
- 18 November 2025: Faroe Islands 1, Kazakhstan 0
- 11 October 2013: Faroe Islands 1, Kazakhstan 1
- 6 September 2013: Kazakhstan 2, Faroe Islands 1
The first of them was in 2013. Four games prove nothing about Tuesday.
The total
Of Kazakhstan’s 17 competitive games since September 2024, 8 finished with three goals or more. Faroe Islands’s went that way in 6 of 17.
The market prices the over 2.5 at 37.9% with the margin out. The same problem applies here as to the result: those games were played against opponents of every level, so the rates do not price this total. No bet on it.
Pick: no bet
No bet on Faroe Islands at Kazakhstan: not Kazakhstan at +140, not the draw at +195, not Faroe Islands at +205, and not the total of 2.5.
What would change it is a sample where the opponents are comparable. The group stage adds one game at a time to that: on 6 October, Kazakhstan had played three group games. Nothing on this page says who is fit or selected for Tuesday; check the lineups before any bet on this game.
Faroe Islands at Kazakhstan, Tuesday 6 October, 10:00 AM ET, Astana Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 October 2026, 04:35 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 6 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.