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MLS · Saturday 10 October

Columbus Crew vs Orlando City SC Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 8 Oct 2026

Bet Orlando City SC at +105. The bet holds down to +104. Our number makes them 50.5% to beat the Columbus Crew at home, and the gap to the market is 5.4 points, just over the line.

DraftKings has Orlando City SC at +105, the draw at +285 and the Columbus Crew at +200. With the book’s 8.1% margin taken out, that is 45.1% for Orlando, 24.0% for the draw and 30.8% for Columbus. Our number gives Orlando 50.5%, the draw 21.6% and Columbus 27.8%.

An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s, and the widest gap wins. Orlando clear it by 0.4 of a point. The draw sits 2.4 points below the market and Columbus 3.0 below.

Our number gives Orlando City SC 50.5 percent, the market 45.1 percentColumbus Crew at Orlando City SC: home, draw, away, ours against the market'sOur numberexpected goals50.5%21.6%27.8%The market1X2 prices, margin removed45.1%24%30.8%Prices: Orlando City SC +105, draw +285, Columbus Crew +200. An outcome is a bet when ours is 5 points or more above the market's.Orlando City SCColumbus Crew
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-08 07:40 UTC.

How the number is built

The method in one clause: each side’s expected goals are its scoring rate at the venue times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, each measured against the league average, and a Poisson count of goals turns the two figures into home, draw and away.

Both numbers come from this season. Orlando have played 13 home games in 2026 MLS and Columbus 13 away games. The league averages are this season’s: 1.83 goals a game for the home side and 1.39 for the visitor, over 405 games.

Orlando at home have gone 7-2-4, wins first, scoring 1.77 a game and conceding 1.31. That scoring rate is 0.96 times the league’s home average, so a little below it. Columbus away have gone 2-3-8, scoring 1.54 and conceding 2.08, which is 1.13 times what an average home side scores. Multiplied out, Orlando’s expected goals are 2.0 and Columbus’ 1.45.

Orlando City SC at home and Columbus Crew awayOrlando City SC at home and Columbus Crew away, this season and lastOrlando City SC at home, 2026 MLS (our number)7-2-4 in 13scored 1.77 a gameconceded 1.31 a gameOrlando City SC at home, 2025 MLS8-4-5 in 17scored 2.12 a gameconceded 1.53 a gameColumbus Crew away, 2026 MLS (our number)2-3-8 in 13scored 1.54 a gameconceded 2.08 a gameColumbus Crew away, 2025 MLS5-7-5 in 17scored 1.53 a gameconceded 1.82 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The table, this season and last

Twenty-seven games in, Orlando City SC are 7th of 15 in the Eastern Conference with 34 points, 10-4-13. The Columbus Crew are 12th of 15 with 29 points, 8-5-14. In 2025 Columbus finished 7th in the East with 54 points and Orlando 9th with 53.

Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastOrlando City SC2026 MLS7 of 15 in the Eastern Conference, 34 pts in 272025 MLS9 of 15 in the Eastern Conference, 53 pts in 34Columbus Crew2026 MLS12 of 15 in the Eastern Conference, 29 pts in 272025 MLS7 of 15 in the Eastern Conference, 54 pts in 34Three points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The case against the call is how thin it is. A 5.4-point gap is a single cent of price from a pass: at +103 it falls to 4.9 and the bet is gone. And the teams met on 16 September 2026, when Columbus won 2-1 at home. That game is in Orlando’s away record, which the method does not use for this game.

Pick: Orlando City SC +105

Orlando City SC at +105 is the bet, read on 8 October 2026 at 07:40 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. The gap is 5.4 points against a threshold of 5.

It stops being a bet at +103 or shorter. At +104, with the same margin taken out, the market would give Orlando 45.3%, 5.2 points under our 50.5%.

What changes it

The price, and only a small move is needed. Orlando are a bet at +104 or longer. The draw would need +458 or longer, and the Columbus Crew +306 or longer.

This page states nothing about either lineup on 10 October. Check the team news before you bet.

The total and the last meetings

The total is 3.5 goals, over +105 and under -130. With the margin out, the market makes the over 46.3%. Our Poisson count gives 45.3%, 1.0 point below it. The total is reference only: the method bets the result, never the goals.

The last five meetings ESPN holds split two wins to Columbus, one to Orlando and two draws, and every one of them produced at least two goals. They are not in the method.

Last meetings of Orlando City SC and Columbus CrewOrlando City SC and Columbus Crew: the last meetings ESPN holds16 Sep 2026Columbus Crew 2-1 Orlando City SC12 Apr 2026Columbus Crew 1-1 Orlando City SC4 Oct 2025Orlando City SC 1-1 Columbus Crew25 Jul 2025Columbus Crew 1-3 Orlando City SC21 Sep 2024Columbus Crew 4-3 Orlando City SCHome side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

Columbus Crew at Orlando City SC, MLS, Saturday 10 October, 7:30 PM ET, Inter&Co Stadium, Orlando, Florida. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:40 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.