MLS
MLS · Saturday 10 October
Seattle Sounders vs New England Revolution Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the draw at +285. The bet holds down to +277. Our number puts the draw in Seattle Sounders at New England Revolution 5.6 points above the market.
DraftKings has New England at -115, the draw at +285 and Seattle at +255. With the book’s margin of 7.6% taken out, that is 49.7% for New England, 24.1% for the draw and 26.2% for Seattle. Our number gives New England 50.7%, the draw 29.7% and Seattle 19.6%. The gap on the draw is 5.6 points. An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s, and the draw is the only one that clears it.
How the number is built
The method in one clause: each side’s expected goals are its scoring rate at the venue times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, each against the league average, and a Poisson distribution on the two numbers gives the win, draw and loss chances. Expected goals here means the goals each side should score on those rates, from results only.
Both numbers come from this season. New England have played 13 home games and Seattle 13 away games, past the 6 the method needs, so each side takes its 2026 MLS record at that venue, against this season’s averages of 1.83 goals a game for home sides and 1.39 for away sides, over 405 league games.
New England at home went 9-2-2 in 13, scoring 2.00 a game and conceding 1.00. Seattle away went 3-5-5 in 13, scoring 0.92 and conceding 1.15. New England’s home scoring is 1.09 times the league’s home average and Seattle’s away conceding 0.63 times it, which gives New England 1.26 expected goals. Seattle’s away scoring at 0.66 times the away average, against New England conceding at 0.72 times it, gives Seattle 0.66.
The two numbers add to 1.92 goals. On a Poisson count, the fewer goals expected, the more often both sides finish level, and that is where the draw’s 29.7% comes from.
The table, this season and last
New England are 2nd of 15 in the Eastern Conference with 46 points from 27 games, 14-4-9 with 45 scored and 36 conceded. Seattle are 7th of 15 in the Western Conference with 38 points, 10-8-9 with 35 scored and 35 conceded. In 2025 New England finished 11th in the East with 36 points from 34 games, and Seattle 5th in the West with 55.
The case against the call is New England’s home record. They have drawn 2 of 13 at home this season and won 9. Seattle have drawn 5 of 13 away, but the home side’s results carry as much weight in the number as the visitor’s. Thirteen games at each venue is the whole sample, and it is not a large one.
Pick: the draw +285
The draw, at +285 at DraftKings. It stays a bet down to +277, if the book keeps its margin. At +276 or shorter the gap is under 5 points and it is no bet.
Neither side is a bet. New England are 1.0 point above the market, and Seattle 6.6 points below it.
What changes it
The price. A longer price on the draw widens the gap; a shorter one past +277 closes it.
The lineups. This page states nothing about who is available for either side. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total
The total is 3.5, over +125 and under -160, which puts the over at 41.9% with the margin removed. Our expected goals give the over 12.9% and the under 87.1%. The total is shown for reference only. This page bets the result, never the total.
The last meetings
ESPN holds five meetings, from May 2016 to July 2024. The most recent was a 2-0 Seattle win at home on 6 July 2024, and three of the five were draws. The method does not use them.
Seattle Sounders at New England Revolution, MLS, Saturday 10 October, 7:30 PM ET, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:40 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.