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MLS · Saturday 10 October

CF Montreal vs Toronto FC Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 8 Oct 2026

Bet Toronto FC at -110. The bet holds down to -200. Our number makes them 66.8% to beat CF Montreal at BMO Field.

DraftKings has Toronto FC at -110, the draw at +275 and CF Montreal at +240. With the book’s 8.5% margin taken out, that is 48.3% for Toronto, 24.6% for the draw and 27.1% for Montreal. Our number gives Toronto 66.8%, the draw 15.3% and Montreal 17.8%.

The gap on Toronto is 18.5 points. An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s, and the widest gap wins. The draw and Montreal both sit 9.3 points below the market, so Toronto is the only side that clears.

Our number gives Toronto FC 66.8 percent, the market 48.3 percentCF Montreal at Toronto FC: home, draw, away, ours against the market'sOur numberexpected goals66.8%15.3%17.8%The market1X2 prices, margin removed48.3%24.6%27.1%Prices: Toronto FC -110, draw +275, CF Montreal +240. An outcome is a bet when ours is 5 points or more above the market's.Toronto FCCF Montreal
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-08 07:40 UTC.

How the number is built

The method in one clause: each side’s expected goals are its scoring rate at the venue times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, each measured against the league average, and a Poisson count of goals turns the two figures into home, draw and away.

Both numbers come from this season. Toronto have played 14 home games in 2026 MLS and Montreal 13 away games, past the 6 the method needs. The league averages are this season’s too: 1.83 goals a game for the home side and 1.39 for the visitor, over 405 games.

Toronto at home have scored 2.07 a game and conceded 2.00, which is 1.13 times the league’s home scoring rate. Montreal away have scored 1.15 and conceded 2.77. That conceding figure is 1.51 times what an average home side scores, and it is the largest single input here. Multiplied out, Toronto’s expected goals are 3.13 and Montreal’s 1.66.

Toronto FC at home and CF Montreal awayToronto FC at home and CF Montreal away, this season and lastToronto FC at home, 2026 MLS (our number)4-8-2 in 14scored 2.07 a gameconceded 2.00 a gameToronto FC at home, 2025 MLS3-7-7 in 17scored 1.00 a gameconceded 1.12 a gameCF Montreal away, 2026 MLS (our number)2-1-10 in 13scored 1.15 a gameconceded 2.77 a gameCF Montreal away, 2025 MLS4-4-9 in 17scored 1.18 a gameconceded 1.59 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The table, this season and last

Twenty-seven games in, Toronto FC are 13th of 15 in the Eastern Conference with 29 points, 6-11-10, wins first. CF Montreal are 15th of 15 with 24 points, 6-6-15. In 2025 Toronto finished 12th in the East with 32 points and Montreal 13th with 28.

Toronto FC and CF Montreal in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastToronto FC2026 MLS13 of 15 in the Eastern Conference, 29 pts in 272025 MLS12 of 15 in the Eastern Conference, 32 pts in 34CF Montreal2026 MLS15 of 15 in the Eastern Conference, 24 pts in 272025 MLS13 of 15 in the Eastern Conference, 28 pts in 34Three points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The case against the call is Toronto’s results at home. They have won 4 of 14 at home this season and drawn 8, a 28.6% win rate against our 66.8%. The method reads goals, 29 scored and 28 conceded in those games, and not results. Montreal’s away record is 2-1-10, so the goals and the results agree on the visitor and disagree on the home side.

Pick: Toronto FC -110

Toronto FC at -110 is the bet, read on 8 October 2026 at 07:40 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. The gap is 18.5 points against a threshold of 5.

It stops being a bet at a price shorter than -200. At -200, with the same margin taken out, the market would give Toronto 61.4%, still 5 points under our 66.8%.

What changes it

The price. Toronto stay a bet from -110 to -200. The draw would need +797 or longer, and CF Montreal +621 or longer.

This page states nothing about either lineup on 10 October. Check the team news before you bet.

The total and the last meetings

The total is 3.5 goals, over +130 and under -170. With the margin out, the market makes the over 40.8%. Our Poisson count gives 70.4%, a gap of 29.6 points toward the over. Toronto’s home games this season have averaged 4.07 goals and Montreal’s away games 3.92. The total is reference only: the method bets the result, never the goals.

Montreal have not beaten Toronto in the last five meetings ESPN holds: Toronto won three and two were drawn, the latest 0-0 at Montreal on 16 July 2026. They are not in the method.

Last meetings of Toronto FC and CF MontrealToronto FC and CF Montreal: the last meetings ESPN holds16 Jul 2026CF Montreal 0-0 Toronto FC30 Aug 2025Toronto FC 1-1 CF Montreal17 May 2025CF Montreal 1-6 Toronto FC20 Jul 2024CF Montreal 0-1 Toronto FC18 May 2024Toronto FC 5-1 CF MontrealHome side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

CF Montreal at Toronto FC, MLS, Saturday 10 October, 1:00 PM ET, BMO Field, Toronto. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:40 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.