MLS
MLS · Saturday 10 October
New York City vs Chicago Fire FC Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on New York City at Chicago Fire FC. The draw and New York City are each 4.9 points above the market, short of the 5 a bet needs.
DraftKings has Chicago Fire FC at -125, the draw at +285 and New York City at +285. With the book’s margin of 7.5% removed, that is 51.7% for Chicago, 24.2% for the draw and 24.2% for New York City. Our number gives Chicago 41.8%, the draw 29.1% and New York City 29.1%.
Chicago sit 9.9 points below the market. The draw and New York City sit 4.9 points above it, each a tenth of a point short. An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s, so this is a pass.
How the number is built
One clause: each side’s expected goals are its scoring rate at the venue times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both measured against the league average, and a Poisson distribution, the standard count model for goals, turns the two figures into home, draw and away chances.
Both sides use this season’s numbers. Chicago have played 13 home games in the 2026 MLS season and New York City 13 away games, past the 4 the method needs. The league averages are this season’s too: 1.83 goals a game for the home side and 1.39 for the visitor, over 405 games.
Chicago are 8-1-4 at home, scoring 1.92 a game and conceding 1.15. New York City are 4-5-4 away, scoring 1.15 and conceding 1.15. Against the averages, Chicago score at 1.05 times the home rate and New York City concede at 0.63 times it. New York City score at 0.83 times the away rate and Chicago concede at 0.83 times it. That gives Chicago 1.21 expected goals and New York City 0.96.
Chicago’s home attack meets the tightest part of New York City’s record: 15 goals conceded in 13 away games. That is what pulls Chicago’s chance below the market’s.
The table, this season and last
Chicago are 4th of 15 in the Eastern Conference after 27 games: 13 wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats, 49 scored and 39 conceded, 45 points. In 2025 they finished 8th in the East with 53 points from 34 games. New York City are 9th of 15 in the East with 33 points: 8 wins, 9 draws, 10 defeats, 41 scored and 36 conceded. In 2025 they finished 5th in the East with 56 points.
The case against the pass is how close it is. Two outcomes sit a tenth of a point under the threshold, and a small move in the price makes either one a bet. Last season points further toward New York City: Chicago went 6-6-5 at home in 2025 and New York City 6-5-6 away, and run on those numbers the method would make New York City the more likely winner.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the result. The widest gaps are 4.9 points, on the draw and on New York City, against a 5-point threshold.
What changes it
The price. With the book’s margin as it stands, the draw becomes a bet at +286 or longer and New York City at +286 or longer, one step past today’s +285 on each. Chicago would need +153 or longer.
The lineups. This page states nothing about who is available on 10 October. Check the team news before you bet.
The total
The total is 3.5 goals, over +140 and under -180. With the margin removed the market has the over at 39.3% and the under at 60.7%. Our number has the over at 17.4% and the under at 82.6%, a gap of 21.9 points toward the under. That is reference only: the method bets the result, never the total.
This season Chicago’s games went over 3.5 in 10 of 27, and New York City’s in 7 of 27.
The last meetings
ESPN holds five meetings since July 2024. New York City won three, each by 3-1, and two were drawn. The latest was a 3-1 New York City win on 25 July 2026, with New York City listed as the home side. The method does not use them.
New York City at Chicago Fire FC, MLS, Saturday 10 October, 2:30 PM ET, Soldier Field. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:40 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.