College Basketball Betting – We Can Cash Against the #1 Team

Okay, here we go again. And we know all about the Gonzaga Bulldogs, as they are, as we speak, the only major college basketball team that is undefeated. And you better believe they’re not going to let themselves be knocked off in the West Coast Conference tournament.

But that is not the question before us. What we have to evaluate is how many points Gonzaga can beat the Saint Mary’s Gaels by.

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This is the semi-final of that WCC tournament, as this winner will face the survivor between Pepperdine and BYU.

It takes place at the arena that is located at the Orleans Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas, with a jump ball at 9 PM ET.

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Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels Betting Report

Tip-off: 9 PM ET (Monday)

College Basketball Odds: Gonzaga -18, Total 140.5

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We’re already aware that Gonzaga is the best-shooting team in the nation, at least if you use the metric of “Effective Field Goal Percentage” that is listed at KenPom.

They also play fast. Only two teams in the nation get a shot up quicker than these guys (14.1 seconds, on average). And that’s not because they just toss up a three-pointer either; the ‘Zags have only taken 32% of their shots from three-point territory, and that’s a pretty small percentage.

That means they get it inside the arc more, which means mid-range jumpers and plays in the paint. They’ve hit 64.4% of their two-point shots, so a team like Saint Mary’s is going to have to collapse and perhaps leave the long-range shooters alone.

In two meetings between these teams, Gonzaga has made 12 of 25 from downtown. But maybe you’ve got to pick your poison here. On January 16, the Gaels held Gonzaga to 73 points, which is the lowest total they’ve had all season. The next time out, the Bulldogs had 87 points. And they led SMC by 38 points at one juncture.

But we do know this – Randy Bennett, who has been at Saint Mary’s for 20 seasons, may not have been successful very often against Mark Few, but he knows exactly what to expect, because for all 20 of those seasons, Few has been the coach for the ‘Zags.

These Gaels aren’t in the same league with Gonzaga as far as firepower is concerned, and indeed they are just 30% from three-point range. But they can at least defend on the inside (45% allowed in two-point range). They are also the sixth-best team in the nation in Defensive Rebounding Percentage. If they can get some of that working for them, they can hang for a while.

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And even though Gonzaga is going to play its up-tempo style, at least Saint Mary’s can reduce the number of possessions by controlling the tempo when it has the ball. They are, in fact, one of the “slowest” teams in terms of offensive tempo.

Inasmuch as Gonzaga may be facing a stiffer challenge from BYU in the anticipated WCC final, they may want to leave something in the tank. So grabbing the points here may not be the silliest thing in the world to do.

The Play: SAINT MARY’S +18

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Charles Jay
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