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On Sunday, September 14, one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in all of boxing, Naoya Inoue will put his undisputed junior featherweight crown on the line against Murodjon Akhmadaliev. This world title fight will take place at the IG Arena in Nagoya, Aichi, Japan.

Naoya Inoue (30-0, 27 KOs) returns to the ring for the first time since May, when he won via 8^th round TKO over Ramon Cardenas. It’s the third time he’s fought in 2025, as he also beat Ye Joon Kim via 4^th round KO in January.

Akhmadaliev (14-1 11 KOs) is a former junior featherweight champion, having held and lost the WBA and IBF titles from January 2020 to April 2023. Since that loss, Akhmadaliev has won three fights in a row and worked his way up into the top of the division rankings.

The main event of Inoue vs. Akhmadaliev is expected to have a 5am ET ring-walk time. The main card is expected to start around 3am ET.

Let’s take a closer look at the latest Naoya Inoue vs. Murodjon Akhmadaliev odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Naoya Inoue vs. Murodjon Akhmadaliev predictions.

Naoya Inoue vs. Murodjon Akhmadaliev Preview

Check out the latest Naoya Inoue vs. Murodjon Akhmadaliev tale of the tape:

Naoya Inoue Recent Fights

Outside of Oleksandr Usyk, Naoya Inoue is the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. It’s not just because he’s a perfect 30-0, it’s also because he’s knocked out 90% of his opponents and has gone a staggering 25-0 in world title fights with 23 KOs.

In January of this year, Inoue destroyed replacement fighter Ye Joon Kim via 4^th round knockout. That was just four months after he crushed TJ Doheny via 7^th round TKO. Then, in May, he stopped Cardenas with an 8^th round TKO.

If you are keeping track at home, that’s three KOs inside a calendar year. This weekend’s fight will be Inoue’s fourth in the last 12 months. With both men roughly the same in size, it will come down to their experience and overall skillset.

They call Inoue “Monster” for a reason. He truly is a monster inside the ring. This man devours his opponents by going for the knockout. He doesn’t rest on his laurels or cruise to decisions.

Inoue also isn’t afraid to get knocked down, which he has in a few of his last handful of fights. It’s almost as if he turns into a killer after getting knocked down.

Naoya Inoue Odds

Inoue opened as a -1100 favorite against Akhmadaliev. He currently sits in a range of -800 to -1250. Prior to this bout, Inoue was a massive favorite of -5000 to -10000 over Kim and Cardenas. The lowest Inoue’s odds have been for a fight was against Stephen Fulton when he was a -350 to -450 favorite.

Murodjon Akhmadaliev Recent Fights

Akhmadaliev last fought in May and defeated Luis Castillo via 8^th round TKO. Prior to that, he competed in December 2024, where he beat Ricardo Espinoza Franco via 3^rd round TKO, and in December 2022, where he beat Kevin Ramirez via 8^th round TKO.

All three of those fights were pretty much calculated bookings after Akhmadaliev lost the IBF world super bantamweight title to Marlon Tapales in April 2023. He suffered a split decision defeat, which is the only blemish on his career. Tapales would end up losing that belt in December 2023, to Inoue via 10^th round KO.

Akhmadaliev made three successful title defenses before losing to Tapales. So, he has championship fight experience, along with understanding the highs and lows of winning and losing a world title.

Akhmadaliev also has knockout power as he’s KO’d 11 of his 15 opponents, which is a 78.57% knockout rate.

Murodjon Akhmadaliev Odds

Akhmadaliev opened as a +620 underdog against Inoue and currently sits in a range of +550 to +650 odds. According to the betting data, this is the first time that he’s been listed as an underdog since 2016. In his last bout, Akhmadaliev was a -5000 favorite.

Akhmadaliev vs. Inoue Predictions

Inoue might refer to Akhmadaliev as his most difficult opponent, but I certainly do not. Nonito Donaire is and was better than Akhmadaliev.

With that said, this isn’t an easy fight for Inoue. It will be a challenge as Monster as acknowledged his challenger’s strength and power. While he doesn’t fear it, Inoue does know that he needs to not go straight into it like a head-on collision.

There’s no rhyme or reason to pick against Inoue for this fight. Until he actually loses, you have to go with Inoue to keep on winning. I expect the undisputed champ to use a high volume of punches and attempt to chop down the tree; not try to finish the fight with one punch.

This should be an exciting fight for as long as it lasts.

Bet: Naoya Inoue (-1000)

The Best Inoue vs. Akhmadaliev Prop Bets

The following Inoue vs. Akhmadaliev prop bets are courtesy of BetUS:

Over/Under 10.5 rounds

• Over 8.5 (-130)
• Under 8.5 (Even)

Since 2019, only three men have gone Over 8.5 rounds with Inoue: Donaire, Tapales, and Butler. For Akhmadaliev, only five of his 15 pro fights have gone Over this mark.

By taking the Over, you are saying that Akhmadaliev is tough enough to survive into the latter rounds. Although it’s rare for an Inoue opponent to do so, I do think that’s the case here.

Bet: Over 8.5 (-130)

Will Fight go the distance?

• Yes (+200)
• No (-300)

In 45 total fights between these two men, only seven bouts have gone the distance. For Inoue, his last fight that went the full 12 rounds was in 2019, against Nonito Donaire. Inoue obliterated Donaire in their rematch three years later via 2^nd round TKO.

Akhmadaliev last went the distance in 2023, when he lost his IBF title to Tapales. It’s the only defeat in his pro career.

Can Akhmadaliev survive the full 12 rounds? Honestly, probably not. Only three men have been able to do so when facing Inoue. So, it’s hard to imagine that we’ll see that this weekend. Although it’s possible, the odds favor a stoppage.

Bet: No (-300)

Method of Victory

• Akhmadaliev via TKO/KO/DQ (+1200)
• Akhmadaliev via decision (+1600)
• Inoue via TKO/KO/DQ (-250)
• Inoue via decision (+300)
• Draw (+1800)

As you can see from above, I think this fight goes over 8.5 rounds, ends inside the distance, and is won by Inoue. So, that leaves us with just one option: Inoue via TKO/KO/DQ (-250). Sure, there’s not much value there, so you could take a flier on Inoue to win via decision. But the trends and the data suggests that’s Akhmadaliev will get stopped.

Bet: Inoue via TKO/KO/DQ (-250)

Betting on Rounds

• Either Winner in rounds 1-4 (+600)
• Either Winner in rounds 5-8 (+200)
• Either Winner in rounds 9-12 (+200)
• Fight To Go The Distance (+240)

More than likely, if there’s a stoppage, it will be in Rounds 9-12 and that’s because we’re giving Akhmadaliev some credit for surviving this world title fight. There’s a very small chance he can push this bout the full 12 rounds, but I would take the odds of a stoppage considering 90% of Inoue’s opponents have fallen inside the distance.

Bet: Either Winner in rounds 9-12 (+200)

What’s Next For The Inoue vs. Akhmadaliev Winner?

If Akhmadaliev wins this fight, then I see an immediate rematch. However, if Inoue wins as expected then we have to look at the next mandatory challenger or the next mega fight for Inoue.

And, if we’re to believe the rumors, then a 2026 bout against fellow undefeated Japanese sensation Junto Nakatani could happen in the first quarter of the year. Of course that would take place in Tokyo, Japan, and be one of the biggest fights that country has seen.

My hope is that’s the destination we get to next year because we need more super fights like this one. And, both men aren’t scared to make it happen.

Naoya Inoue vs. Murodjon Akhmadaliev Fight Card

• (c)Naoya Inoue (-1000) vs. Murodjon Akhmadaliev (+600) in a 12-round bout for the undisputed junior featherweight championship
• (c)Yoshiki Takei (-650) vs. Christian Medina Jimenez (+400) in a 12 round WBO bantamweight title fight
• Yuni Takada (+500) vs. Ryusei Matsumoto (-950) in a 12 round strawweight clash
• Yudai Murakami (+580) vs. Taiga Imanaga (-1300) in a 10 round lightweight bout
• Ei Go vs. Shunpei Ohata in an 8 rounds junior featherweight fight
• Toshiki Shimomachi vs. Han Sol Lee in an 8 round junior featherweight clash
• Taisei Ayano vs. Yusuke Nawa in a 4 round bantamweight bout