NASA’s first scheduled Artemis landing is Artemis IV, in early 2028. Artemis III, NASA’s 2027 mission, is a crewed test in low Earth orbit, so the Artemis moon landing odds that matter now sit on 2028.
The market puts that year well below even. Kalshi’s contract “NASA lands a person on the Moon by December 31, 2028” stood at 27 cents bid and 31 cents asked at 07:53 UTC on Monday, November 2, 2026. That is a chance of roughly 27% to 31%.
The Artemis timeline, as NASA states it
Two Artemis missions have flown. The dates below are NASA’s own, read from nasa.gov between 07:51 and 07:52 UTC on Monday, November 2, 2026.
| Mission | What it is | NASA, November 2, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Artemis I | Uncrewed test flight of the SLS rocket and Orion | Flown: launched November 16, 2022 (1:47 a.m. EST), splashed down December 11, 2022 |
| Artemis II | Crewed lunar flyby | Flown: April 1 to April 10, 2026 |
| Artemis III | Crewed demonstration in low Earth orbit with test versions of the Blue Origin and SpaceX landers | 2027 |
| Artemis IV | Crewed surface landing near the lunar South Pole | Early 2028 |
| Artemis V | Lunar surface mission | 2028, then about one mission a year |
NASA’s Artemis program page lists Artemis V, a lunar surface mission, for 2028. That puts it in the same calendar year as Artemis IV. After Artemis V, NASA plans about one mission a year.
Artemis II: flown in April 2026
Artemis II flew from April 1 to April 10, 2026. NASA lists the mission at 9 days, 1 hour and 32 minutes. The crew:
- Reid Wiseman, commander, NASA
- Victor Glover, pilot, NASA
- Christina Koch, mission specialist, NASA
- Jeremy Hansen, mission specialist, Canadian Space Agency
It was a flyby. NASA says the crew traveled 252,756 miles from Earth, a record for the greatest distance humans have traveled in space.
Artemis III: a 2027 test in Earth orbit
The Artemis III mission page lists the launch as 2027. NASA’s October 23, 2026 article says “next year.” The named crew is Randy Bresnik (commander), Luca Parmitano of ESA (pilot), and Andre Douglas and Frank Rubio (mission specialists). It is a low Earth orbit test, and the first landing NASA schedules is Artemis IV.
The plan is a 14-day mission. Orion docks first with a Blue Origin Blue Moon Mark 2 test article, and the crew spends about two days aboard. Then Orion docks with a SpaceX Starship test article for up to two hours, and the crew does not enter Starship. Splashdown is planned in the Pacific off California.
The latest hardware step came on October 28, 2026. In the Vehicle Assembly Building at Kennedy, the Artemis III SLS core stage was integrated with its twin solid rocket boosters. Next comes rollout to Launch Pad 39B for a tanking test.
Artemis IV: the landing NASA is aiming for
Artemis IV is listed for early 2028. Four astronauts fly to lunar orbit. Two descend in a commercial lander, spend about a week near the lunar South Pole, then rejoin the crew for the trip home. NASA has nine candidate landing regions near the South Pole, and the crew will wear Axiom Space’s spacesuit.
NASA held an Artemis briefing at Kennedy on Friday, October 23, 2026, and published an article the same day, updated October 26. In it, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman set the goal to “complete the long-awaited return of American astronauts to the lunar surface in 2028.” The October 23 update says neither Blue Origin nor SpaceX has been assigned to a specific landing mission. NASA will pick the first company to land astronauts in 2028 based on lander readiness, and a second crewed landing opportunity follows.
Two more points come from the same article. Both companies must fly an uncrewed demonstration mission with their crewed landers before the crewed Moon missions. The landers and Orion will no longer meet in a near-rectilinear halo orbit around the Moon, because each provider uses its own orbit. NASA targets two Moonwalks of about two hours each on the first surface missions.
Artemis moon landing odds now
| Market | Yes bid / ask (cents), 07:53 UTC Nov 2 | Traded |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi: NASA lands a person on the Moon before 2027 | 0.4 / 1 | 289,170 contracts |
| Kalshi: NASA lands a person on the Moon before 2028 | 2.4 / 3.3 | 228,265 contracts |
| Kalshi: NASA lands a person on the Moon by December 31, 2028 | 27 / 31 | 37,144 contracts |
| Kalshi: NASA lands a person on the Moon by December 31, 2029 | 38 / 43 | 7,809 contracts |
| Any human Moon landing in 2026 (Polymarket) | 0.9 / 1 | $1,977,554 traded |
Each contract pays $1 if the event happens, so its price in cents reads as a rough chance in percent. The bid is what buyers offer and the ask is what sellers want. The true price sits somewhere between them. All prices were read from Kalshi and Polymarket at 07:53 UTC on Monday, November 2, 2026.
The ladder agrees with NASA’s schedule on the early years. Every contract for a landing before 2028 trades at a few cents or less, and no landing is scheduled before Artemis IV. The disagreement is on 2028 itself. NASA’s target is early 2028. The market prices a NASA landing by December 31, 2028 at 27 to 31 cents. That gap is a market price. It is not our forecast. On the record NASA has published, two steps come first: lander readiness decides which company lands first, and both landers must fly uncrewed demonstrations. No sportsbook price was read for this page.
What the old prices said
In late 2024 this page listed the landing year with 2026 as the favorite at -150 and picked 2027 at +400. No landing has happened in 2026 so far, and none is on NASA’s 2026 schedule. NASA’s 2027 mission, Artemis III, stays in low Earth orbit. The 2027 pick is graded when 2027 ends.
We make no pick on the landing year. Our method is built for single games, and a launch date depends on hardware tests we cannot measure. Our sportsbook reviews compare books, and other novelty markets are in the entertainment section of our blog.
*Sources: NASA Artemis program and mission pages and NASA articles of October 23 (updated October 26) and October 28, 2026, read 07:51-07:52 UTC, Monday, November 2, 2026; Kalshi and Polymarket, read 07:53 UTC, Monday, November 2, 2026.*