2026 NASCAR Autotrader 400 Odds and Predictions

The Autotrader 400 runs Sunday, February 22, 2026 (3:00 p.m. ET) at EchoPark Speedway. It’s an early-season points race with a superspeedway-style draft dynamic meaning a single finish can swing momentum fast, especially coming right off Daytona.

Atlanta’s current configuration races like a pack track: big runs, lane volatility, and constant “who’s pushing who” math. One mistimed block can wipe out three teams’ Sundays.

The storyline is clean: Tyler Reddick comes in as the Daytona 500 winner, Christopher Bell is the most recent spring Atlanta winner, and Team Penske sits in the middle of the odds board like it expects to control the lanes.

Let’s get to the numbers and build a card around survivability plus late-race ceiling.

Autotrader 400 Race Profile

EchoPark Speedway is a 1.54-mile quad-oval with 28° banking, and it races like a drafting track more than a traditional intermediate. The stress points are the same all day: keeping momentum in line, choosing the correct lane on restarts, and avoiding the multi-car “accordion” moments when someone blocks late. Tire falloff isn’t the headline track position and partners are.

• Total Miles: 400.4
• Total Laps: 260
• Stage 1: 60
• Stage 2: 160
• Final Stage: 260

Watch: FOX at 3:00 p.m. ET, plus PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.m, and fuboTV).

Previous Autotrader 400 Winners

Recent Atlanta winners are a mix of lane controllers and opportunists, which tracks with the superspeedway-style profile since the reconfiguration. You can win here with speed but you usually win with timing and help.

• 2025 Spring: Christopher Bell
• 2025 Summer: Chase Elliott
• 2024 Spring: Daniel Suarez
• 2024 Summer: Joey Logano
• 2023 Spring: Joey Logano
• 2023 Summer: William Byron
• 2022 Spring: William Byron
• 2022 Summer: Chase Elliott
• 2021 Spring: Ryan Blaney
• 2021 Summer: Kurt Busch

Autotrader 400 Betting Odds

Here’s the consensus outright board as of February 19, 2026:

Board read: the top is compressed (three co-favorites at +1000), which is what you should expect on a drafting-style Atlanta. The “pockets” are obvious: +1200 to +2000 is full of drivers with real win paths, and the +2500 to +4000 range is where you can shop for a “survive + execute late” outcome without paying peak tax.AR event throughout the year, then check out the following industry-leading membership that features the best handicappers and thousands of picks covering NASCAR and all other major sports.

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Autotrader 400 Favorites

Favorites are priced as the most likely to contend, so the argument has to be cleaner than the story.

Joey Logano (+1000)

Logano is priced like the safest favorite because his path at Atlanta is repeatable: control lanes, win restarts, and treat the race like a sequencing problem. That matters more here than raw speed.

The inputs back it up with track history: 2023 and 2024 Atlanta wins and four top-10s in the last six. Add the Penske alliance dynamic and he tends to be in the “right line” more often than not.

What must go right: avoid getting stranded without Ford help on the final restart. At Atlanta, lane support is everything.

Chase Elliott (+1000)

Elliott’s case is track fit and comfort: 2022 and 2025 Atlanta wins with multiple top-5 mentions in the inputs. That’s the profile you want in a race where the “how” is surviving, then timing one decisive move.

Hendrick tends to bring multiple cars that can work together, and that’s meaningful in a drafting environment even on a 1.54-mile track.

What must go right: be positioned in the front two lanes late. If you’re third lane with no help, the ceiling shrinks fast.

Ryan Blaney (+1000)

Blaney’s current form note is brutal 27th at Daytona (wrecked) but that’s exactly why Atlanta handicapping matters. One superspeedway-style wreck doesn’t change the underlying skill.

The track history is real: 2021 Atlanta winner, plus two top-5s in the last five Atlanta starts, and a strong superspeedway average finish across a longer sample (as provided). The Penske alliance is also a built-in edge on lane control.

What must go right: stay out of early incidents and keep the car clean enough to be aggressive in the final stage.

William Byron (+1200)

Byron’s profile is built for drafting-style races. The inputs cite Atlanta wins (2022, 2023) and three wins on drafting tracks, which is exactly the type of “repeatable path” you want to buy.

He’s also in a team ecosystem that can supply help when the lanes harden late. At +1200, you’re paying less than the co-favorites while still buying true win equity.

What must go right: avoid being the focal point of late blocks. Byron can win here, but Atlanta punishes over-assertive positioning when the pack is stacked.

The Best Autotrader 400 Betting Value

This section is about price vs path to contention.

Austin Cindric (+1200)

Cindric’s value case is structural: he’s in Penske, he drafts well, and the inputs note he’s strong on superspeedways with Atlanta top-10s. At this track type, that’s not fluff that’s the blueprint.

At +1200, you’re not stealing a price, but you’re getting a driver whose win condition is clear: keep the Ford line organized and win the final restart decision.

Christopher Bell (+1400)

Bell is priced like a legitimate contender, and the reason is simple: he’s the 2025 Atlanta spring winner and the inputs frame him as the defending spring race winner with JGR upside.

In these races, recent “solves” matter. If you’ve shown you can finish the last 30 laps correctly at Atlanta, you’re always live again, especially when the board is this tight at the top.

Bubba Wallace (+2000)

Wallace’s path is the classic drafting profile: he’s described as strong on superspeedways and comes in with a 9th at Daytona. That’s the blend you want for Atlanta survivability plus enough aggression late.

At +2000, you’re buying a real lane without paying top-shelf pricing. And with 23XI, the team context matters when the pack needs coordinated pushes.

The Top Autotrader 400 Longshot

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+3500)

At +3500, Stenhouse is priced long enough to matter, and Atlanta’s drafting style keeps the door open for drivers who can stay connected and capitalize late. You’re not asking him to lead all day you’re buying a number that pays if the finish turns chaotic.

Win condition: hang around the top 12–15, avoid the big stack-ups, and be in the front two lanes on the final restart with a committed pusher behind him.

Autotrader 400 Predictions

Expect the late-race conversation to include the drivers who can both manage risk and command a lane: Logano, Blaney, Elliott, Byron, plus at least one Toyota threat like Bell or Reddick. Atlanta is less about “who’s fastest” and more about “who’s positioned to finish.”

My final winner pick is the driver with the cleanest blend of ceiling and survivability for this track type. He’s got recent Atlanta wins, he knows how to control restarts, and his team context supports the lane math you need when it’s time to go.

Pick: Joey Logano (+1000)

Autotrader 400 Prop Bets

Joey Logano Top 3 Finish

This prop fits the “compressed-board” reality: Logano’s win equity is obvious, but a Top 3 gives you a cleaner way to buy lane control and late-race relevance. With stage breaks and restart volatility, having a driver who can consistently land in the front group is the edge.

The risk is the same as any drafting track: one wrong block can end a Top 3 ticket instantly.

Pick: Joey Logano Top 3 (+300)

Ryan Blaney Top 3 Finish

Blaney’s Daytona result is noise in this format he wrecked, which happens. The inputs still give him a repeatable Atlanta profile (past winner, strong recent top-5 rate), and a Top 3 ticket is a good way to express that without needing the final-lap coin flip.

Risk: if he gets caught in early incidents again, this prop dies quickly Atlanta can punish drivers who start chasing stage points too hard.

Pick: Ryan Blaney Top 3 (+300)

William Byron Top 3 Finish

Byron’s drafting-track win history is the reason he’s priced near the top. Top 3 works because it aligns with his “be there late” tendency without demanding he wins the final move.

Risk: Byron can be an aggressive lane chooser, and Atlanta’s pack can snap back on you if the lane stalls.

Pick: William Byron Top 3 (+350)

Joey Logano over Ryan Blaney

This is a clean matchup because it’s really a “race management” bet. Logano’s inputs point to a safer favorite profile at Atlanta (recent wins, consistent top-10s, strong post-Daytona standing), while Blaney comes in needing a clean day after the Daytona wreck.

Risk: one incident can flip any matchup, and both are in the same manufacturer ecosystem where late-race cooperation can blur “who had the better car.”

Pick: Joey Logano over Ryan Blaney (-110)

Denny Hamlin over Kyle Busch

Both come in with strong Daytona results (6th and 7th), so you’re largely betting the Toyota/JGR lane stability and Hamlin’s consistency angle as the race tightens late. Plus money helps in a format where outcomes swing.

Risk: if Busch gets attached to the better drafting line late, the matchup can flip even if Hamlin is “better” for 230 laps.

Pick: Denny Hamlin over Kyle Busch (+120)

Winning Manufacturer

Atlanta’s drafting style tends to reward coordinated groups, and the prop menu reflects that with Ford favored:

• Ford (-120)
• Chevrolet (+200)
• Toyota (+300)

With Penske’s presence at the top of the board and multiple Ford contenders priced tight, the manufacturer bet matches the most likely lane-control script.

Pick: Ford (-120)

Over/Under Total Cautions: Over 8.5

Drafting tracks create caution clusters especially with stage breaks and late restarts. If the finish gets restart-heavy, 8.5 is a reachable number.

Risk: if the field runs unusually clean and single-file for long stretches, you can get stuck in the 6–8 caution range.

Pick: Over 8.5 Total Cautions (-110)