Get Elite Soccer Picks

With The Industry’s Best
Handicapping Membership!

Get Free Trial

We’re still fairly early in the European league cycles, but we’re already starting to see separation forming — both in match performance and in the betting markets. This week’s board gives us meaningful read-throughs from La Liga, the Premier League, Serie A, and beyond, with several fixtures where the price is clearly drifting away from underlying form. We’ve also got the MLS Cup playoffs rolling on this weekend.

We’ll hit a handful of the most actionable spots across the bigger leagues, and we’ll mix in potential futures angles where it actually makes sense. Early-season futures can still have value before the standings harden and the market fully corrects, especially when a single result could shift the implied probability of a club’s finishing position by multiple percentage points.

So, without any further delay, throw on your club’s favorite jersey and grab a few of your hooligan friends as we take a look at some of our best soccer picks this week. Feel free to use any of these for your soccer bets this week — and don’t forget to check out our best handicappers.

Best Soccer Bets

Best Soccer Bets Today

Check out our best soccer bets of the week:

Soccer Bet #1 – Sevilla vs. Osasuna (La Liga)

Sevilla’s defensive slide is becoming their statistical identity. They’ve conceded among the most goals in La Liga through the early portion of the season, and the pattern is repeating weekly: soft chances allowed, poor recovery when their pressure line is broken, and too many phases where their two center-backs get isolated. They’ve also dropped three straight league matches, which suggests this isn’t a single-match anomaly — it’s a structural problem that hasn’t been solved. Even with Lucien Agourne back, the creativity and final ball quality has taken a hit with multiple attackers unavailable. They’re getting volume in the build-up, but they’re not turning that into reliable goals.

Osasuna aren’t perfect either — but they’re functional. They’re organized, they don’t panic, and they maintain shape far more consistently than Sevilla right now. Ante Budimir has been the clear focal point again this season and, while they don’t generate dozens of high-xG looks, their chance quality has been better than the raw scoring totals imply. And importantly, this matchup series hasn’t been one-way traffic for Sevilla. Osasuna have gotten real results head-to-head, including a clean win in their most recent league meeting. There’s no “fear factor” here — Osasuna have gone into this exact fixture and walked out with points multiple times.

This number is off. Sevilla shouldn’t be a +115 favorite against a team that matches up structurally this well and has repeatedly had success against them. The market seems to be pricing Sevilla’s badge, not their current form or availability. Osasuna +260 is a bet you take on value alone, and lineup reality only strengthens it.

Bet: Osasuna +260 (Moneyline)

Soccer Bet #2 – Tottenham Hotspur vs. Manchester United (Premier League)

Tottenham’s volatility this season has been extreme. The ceiling is clearly there (you don’t beat Copenhagen 4–0 in Europe by accident), but the match-to-match consistency still isn’t. They can look dynamic and expressive in possession against teams that sit deeper, but when their defensive line gets stretched, the cracks are obvious.

Losing so many first-choice pieces — especially Maddison + Kulusevski + Dragusin — means they’re running out of ball-progression profiles and actual final-third problem-solvers. They still have finishers, but they don’t have the same control in the build-up phase. That matters in this matchup — because United under Amorim have dramatically increased vertical speed and line-breaking tempo in transition.

United aren’t flawless — but they are improving in the most bankable way a bettor can ask for: they’re stacking repeatable attacking patterns and they’re finishing chances. Three straight multi-goal matches isn’t fluky. Those are sustained high-energy attacking sequences, not one-off moments of brilliance.

Yes, the defense still wobbles, but stylistically they’re more coherent than Spurs right now. And crucially, United have actually been competitive vs Tottenham historically even when they’ve been at much lower form floors than this. Tottenham haven’t solved their home-fixture defensive problem either — nine home league losses in a calendar year is not a blip. That’s a system issue.

This isn’t a spot where you’re betting who might be better long-term. This is a spot where the current availability and team identities align. Tottenham are thin in key creative zones. United are in sharper attacking rhythm than the market seems to be accounting for. Getting plus-money on the team with better finishing reliability right now is very playable.

Bet: Manchester United +150 (Moneyline)

Soccer Bet #3 – Manchester City vs. Liverpool (Premier League)

It’s the biggest game in Europe this weekend, and it rarely stays quiet. City’s attack still funnels through Erling Haaland’s penalty-area gravity, with Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva rotating into the right-half space for cutbacks while Julián Álvarez drifts between the lines. When Rodri pins possession in the middle third, City generate wave after wave of touches around the D — the exact zone where Liverpool’s shape can be stretched. That leaves 2v2s for Haaland against Virgil van Dijk/Ibrahima Konaté; even when Liverpool defend well, the sheer volume of City entries creates multiple big looks.

Liverpool under Arne Slot haven’t dialed anything back. Mohamed Salah is back to punishing back-shoulder channels, Hugo Ekitike attacks space behind City’s fullbacks, and Cody Gakpo forces back-pedals on the weak side. Add Dominik Szoboszlai’s long-range threat and Alexis Mac Allister’s early vertical passes and you get quick-strike sequences that bypass City’s press. The Reds also arrive with live set-piece threat (Van Dijk/Konaté), which matters against a City side that can concede high-quality chances when their last line is forced to defend restarts.

Given those matchups — Haaland vs Van Dijk in the box, Salah isolated vs City’s left back, Phil Foden working pockets around the D — this is far more about activity than picking a side. Recent editions between these two have produced sustained chance volume, and both teams’ profiles still scream transition moments rather than long, low-event spells.

Bet: Over 3.5 goals +120

Soccer Bet #4 – Hoffenheim vs. RB Leipzig

This is one of the sneaky-high-ceiling attacking matchups in Europe this weekend, and these two have already played multiple chaotic, goal-heavy fixtures in the last 18 months. Hoffenheim’s identity is not disguised — they want to play forward early, they take risks in buildup, and their shot volume spikes when they can play through that first line.

Goals in 3-2 vs Wolfsburg, 3-1 vs Heidenheim, and 3-0 vs St. Pauli aren’t random outliers. Those are representative of how open their matches get when they settle into tempo. The flipside is when Hoffenheim get pulled vertically, they leak chances. The Köln loss and Freiburg draw both exposed the same defensive vulnerability: once their wingbacks get caught high, the back line breaks into isolated duels.

Leipzig, on the other hand, are in “results stacker” mode right now — and the 6-0 at Augsburg + 3-1 over Stuttgart show that there’s genuine bite in their final third. This isn’t a grind-you-down Leipzig iteration — they’re playing more direct into Nusa and Openda/Rômulo profiles that stretch back lines aggressively, and Diomandé is a real shot-volume threat in the front line.

They also have enough midfield carriers (Baumgartner / Seiwald) to pull Hoffenheim’s man-orientations out of shape, which is exactly how Cologne punished them. Importantly, their head-to-head history is consistent: Leipzig matches vs Hoffenheim have almost all been high event — including 4–3 and 3–1 decisions over the last year.

You don’t bet this fixture looking for structure. You bet it because of volatility. Hoffenheim can score on anyone when they hit rhythm, and Leipzig have the top-end firepower to kill them in transition. This is not a “try to guess who edges possession and wins 1-0” match. This setup calls for plenty of shot volume and chaos.

Bet: Over 3.5 goals -105

Soccer Bet #5 – San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers (MLS Cup Playoffs)

San Diego enter the decider with the No. 1 seed résumé and the more reliable two-way structure. Their regular-season profile wasn’t just smoke: they controlled midfield tempo, pressed in waves, and turned those regained possessions into repeat entries for Pellegrino and Baird to attack. The wobble is the home split (win rate lagged their excellent road mark), but that’s mostly variance tied to game states—when SD score first, they’re tough to pry open because the back four can sit a touch deeper and let their wide players counter instead of forcing sequences.

Portland’s path is clearer: survive the first half, counter through Antony/Kelsy, and lean on set pieces and Diego Chara’s game-management. They’ve looked dangerous on the break in this series, but the season-long away numbers are what they are—roughly one win in five on the road and under a goal per game. In a playoff tiebreaker where intensity spikes and the home side’s floor rises, that travel form matters. The Timbers needed deep stoppage time and then penalties to level the series; replicating that script away against a top seed is a thin needle to thread.

Tactically, San Diego should have the ball more often and the higher shot volume. With Godoy anchoring in front of the center-backs and Valakari linking to the front line, SD can force Portland’s fullbacks to defend facing their own goal—exactly where the Timbers’ shape tends to bend. Portland’s best route is a low-event game that stretches late, but SD’s pressing triggers usually prevent 90 minutes of stalemate at home.

Bet: San Diego FC -175 

Soccer Picks and Parlays Of The Week

Check out our favorite soccer picks this week:

• Man City vs Liverpool — Over 3.5 goals (+120)
• Hoffenheim vs RB Leipzig — Over 3.5 goals (-105)

Both of these matches profile as high-event, high-tempo, multi-transition games — and that’s the key backbone of this parlay. City–Liverpool is the biggest fixture in Europe this weekend, and neither side is currently structured to sit in a shell. Haaland / Foden vs Van Dijk / Konaté is going to create repeated box entries, while Salah / Ekitike / Gakpo will get space when City’s inverted fullback rotations lose possession.

These two don’t play for 1-0s. They play for the punch and counter-punch. You also have multiple match-winners on both sides who don’t need volume to convert. That’s how big games crack upwards, not stall.

Hoffenheim–Leipzig is the logical pairing because both teams’ recent game states lean toward chaos, not control. Leipzig are in one of their most free-flowing attacking stretches of the entire year, pushing numbers high and letting their front three run. Hoffenheim can’t sit and absorb. When they choose to play, the match becomes a track meet.

And when they don’t control tempo… they give up big looks. That’s the perfect formula. A couple of matches where 3+ goals isn’t a ceiling outcome, it’s the median expectation. Combining the two overs leverages the pace, personnel, and tactical identities and avoids trying to guess tight spreads or ML coinflips.

If you decide to put both of these soccer bets into a parlay, then you will win $353 on a $100 wager. That’s a 3.5x on your investment. If parlays are your preferred betting strategy, then check out our best NFL parlays and College Football parlay picks of the week.