PGA Golf Picks This Week: Quail Hollow’s Best Bets

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The second major of the year is here, and so are our Golf Picks This Week. The 2025 PGA Championship tees off from the iconic Quail Hollow Club, and the board is loaded with value bets and head-to-head matchups worth digging into.

Before we dive in, you can always find the latest golf picks and sharpen your edge with our golf betting guide. If you are looking for the full breakdown of this week’s major, then check out our dedicated betting preview for the 2025 PGA Championship.

PGA Golf Picks This Week

Golf Picks For This Week

Let’s break down the best value plays across the golf betting boards, from finishing position props to head-to-head matchups, tournament specials. and more.

Top Finishing Position Bets

These finishing props offer value without needing to hit an outright winner.

Top 5 Finish: Bryson DeChambeau (+185)

Bryson DeChambeau enters the 2025 PGA Championship in peak form, and a Top 5 Finish at +185 looks like strong value. He finished second here last year with a blistering 20-under score, and he’s posted Top 5 results in three of his last ten starts—including a win at the 2024 U.S. Open and a T5 at the 2025 Masters just last month. His recent results show a well-rounded game built for major championship setups: elite driving distance (330.8 yards this season), improved putting (0.484 SG: Putting over his last five events), and strong overall Strokes Gained metrics (1.906 total SG average).

What really boosts his ceiling this week is how dominant he’s been off the tee. DeChambeau ranks among the best in recent form with 0.569 SG: Off-the-Tee and 0.515 SG: Around-the-Green—two categories that matter a lot at a long track like Quail Hollow. He’s also posted a solid 59.72% Greens in Regulation rate this season and ranks well in bogey avoidance (just 18.06% of holes played over par). Add in his history at this event—Top 5 finishes in both 2020 and 2023, and a runner-up in 2024—and there’s a strong statistical and narrative case for him to contend again.

Bet: Bryson DeChambeau (+185)

Top 10 Finish: Xander Schauffele (+180)

Xander Schauffele comes into the 2025 PGA Championship as the defending champion, having torched Valhalla last year with a 21-under winning performance. A Top 10 Finish at +180 offers solid value for a player with his major track record and recent consistency. Over his last ten starts, Schauffele has finished in the Top 10 three times, including a T8 at the Masters and a T5 at the BMW Championship. While his recent form includes a few middling finishes, his upside at big events—and particularly at the PGA—makes him a worthy consideration in this range.

Statistically, Schauffele’s strength lies in his elite iron play. He ranks 7th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green with an average of 0.821 over his last five events. While he’s struggled a bit off the tee and on the greens (ranking outside the top 140 in both categories), his ball-striking can keep him in contention on tough tracks like Quail Hollow. He also brings a proven record of performing under major championship pressure and has made the cut in three of his last four appearances. Given the plus-money return and his ability to spike in big spots, +180 for a Top 10 feels like a smart, high-floor play.

Bet: Xander Schauffele (+180)

Top 20 Finish: Tommy Fleetwood (+280)

Tommy Fleetwood at +280 for a Top 20 Finish is one of the most dependable plays on the board. He’s finished in the Top 20 in seven of his last ten starts, including a T4 at the Truist Championship and a 7th-place finish at the RBC Heritage. His game travels well, and Quail Hollow’s layout rewards his strengths: elite iron play and consistent putting. Over his last five tournaments, he’s averaged 0.831 Strokes Gained: Total, with solid metrics across all facets—0.352 SG: Approach, 0.238 SG: Around-the-Green, and 0.134 SG: Putting.

Fleetwood’s recent history at the PGA Championship includes a T5 finish in 2022 and a respectable T18 last year. While he hasn’t broken through for a win on American soil, he’s shown he can consistently contend in tough fields. Statistically, he ranks 13th on TOUR in SG: Approach and 10th in SG: Total, while also ranking in the top 50 for both putting and off-the-tee play this season. Combine that with strong recent form and a course that suits precision over power, and Fleetwood looks like one of the safest bets on the board to crack the Top 20.

Bet: Tommy Fleetwood (+280)

Head-to-Head Matchups

These are some first-round bets on my radar. You don’t want to have to wait until Sunday for your payday, right?

Rory McIlroy (-110) vs. Scottie Scheffler (-115)

When it comes to a Round 1 leader prop between Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, you’re splitting hairs between two elite players—but the odds give Scheffler the slight advantage. Scheffler has been dominant early in tournaments this season, opening with a 61 at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson en route to a 31-under win. He’s posted five Top 5 finishes in his last ten starts, and his first-round scoring has been consistently aggressive. Over his last five tournaments, Scheffler is averaging a blistering 2.447 Strokes Gained: Total, including 0.649 Off-the-Tee and 0.675 Putting, two metrics critical to starting hot.

McIlroy, on the other hand, owns Quail Hollow like few players in modern history. He’s won four times there, and his cumulative score to par in PGA Tour events at the course is -102 over 50 rounds. Since 2018, he’s been -37 over just 20 rounds—comfortably ahead of Scheffler over the same stretch. Rory also just won the Masters and is coming off a victory at last year’s Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow, where he beat Schauffele by five shots. His recent track record at the course is unmatched, which makes him a dangerous threat to lead early.

Still, if you’re betting purely on current form and data trends, Scheffler deserves serious consideration. He leads the TOUR in Strokes Gained: Total for the season (2.394 overall), ranks 2nd Off-the-Tee, and is breaking par on over 26% of his holes played. That kind of statistical edge—paired with red-hot form and elite ball-striking—makes him a viable play in this head-to-head for Round 1. McIlroy brings the course history, but Scheffler brings the sharpest current toolkit in golf.

Bet: Scottie Scheffler (-115)

Xander Schauffele (+150) vs. Rory McIlroy (-190)

While McIlroy’s dominance at Quail Hollow is well-documented, Schauffele is the defending PGA champion and not to be overlooked. He shot 62-68-68-65 en route to a 21-under victory last year and has finished in the top 10 in three of his last five PGA starts.

However, Schauffele’s first-round performance trends are less explosive; he’s averaging just -0.413 SG: Off-the-Tee and -0.301 Putting over his last five tournaments, both below field average. Rory, meanwhile, is not only comfortable at Quail Hollow but has consistently gone low early, including a dominant start in the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship.

I think these players are closer in talent than the odds indicate, which makes Schauffele a solid underdog here at +150.

Bet: Xander Schauffele (+150)

Scottie Scheffler (-205) vs. Xander Schauffele (+160)

Scheffler has been a machine out of the gate lately—opening with a 61 at the CJ CUP and ranking 1st in SG: Total this season. He’s gained 2.447 strokes per round over his last five events, with that elite combo of power and putting that gives him an edge on Thursday.

Schauffele, while consistent overall, hasn’t been generating the same level of first-round momentum, with negative SG: Total over his last five starts (-0.129). Despite being the reigning champ, Schauffele’s game is more suited for grinding out four-round consistency than fireworks on Thursday.

Bet: Scottie Scheffler (-205)

To Miss the Cut

Fading players to even make the cut can be profitable, especially in loaded major fields.

Michael Block (-1000)

Michael Block may be a fan favorite after his Cinderella run at the 2023 PGA Championship where he finished tied for 15th, but there’s little evidence to support a repeat—or even a made cut—this time around. Block has missed the cut in three of his last four PGA appearances, including last year when he shot 76-73 and finished 7-over par. His overall form has been equally crappy, with four straight missed cuts in 2024 and an average of -1.901 Strokes Gained: Total over his last five tournaments. That includes a concerning -0.555 Off-the-Tee, -0.886 on approach, and -0.383 around the green—all well below professional standards.

Even his putting, usually the last line of defense for struggling players, is underwhelming at -0.077 SG. Statistically, there isn’t a single strength in Block’s recent game that suggests he’s equipped to handle a major championship venue like Quail Hollow. His 2023 run was a great story, but at -1000 to miss the cut, the oddsmakers are essentially treating his early exit as a foregone conclusion. And based on performance metrics, they’re probably right.

Bet: Michael Block (-1000)

Jason Dufner (-260)

Jason Dufner is a clear candidate to miss the cut at this year’s PGA Championship, and the stats back it up. Dufner actually won the PGA Tournament back in 2013, but he’s now 48 years old and well past his prime.

He has failed to make the weekend in four straight PGA Championship appearances, including last year when he shot 68-75 and finished one-over. More broadly, Dufner has missed the cut in eight of his last nine starts overall, with the only made cut resulting in a T75 at the Puerto Rico Open. His average Strokes Gained: Total over his last five events is a brutal -0.461, with negative metrics in three of the four key categories.

Jason, if you’re reading this, look away:

This man is not good at golf!

His ball-striking has regressed dramatically, as Dufner ranks nowhere near the Tour average in approach or around-the-green play. He’s losing 0.215 strokes on approach, 0.052 around the green, and 0.267 putting—a combination that’s nearly impossible to overcome on a major championship setup like Quail Hollow. His only marginal strength is a barely positive 0.073 SG: Off-the-Tee, but with a driving distance of just 279.3 yards, he lacks the length to keep up with today’s field. Given the depth of this year’s championship and Dufner’s sharp decline in form, missing the cut feels like the most likely outcome.

Bet: Jason Dufner (-260)

Will a LIV Player Win the PGA Championship?

This LIV vs. PGA prop is always worth watching.

• Yes (+350)
• No (-525)

There are 16 LIV players in all in the 2025 PGA Championship field, but only a few names present a legitimate shot at winning. Bryson DeChambeau stands out as the top LIV contender. He enters Quail Hollow fresh off a win at the 2024 U.S. Open and a runner-up finish at last year’s PGA Championship. His power, confidence, and recent major success gives him a real path to contention, especially given his strong top-5 odds and well-rounded strokes gained profile. If there’s one LIV player built to thrive under pressure and overpower a tough setup, it’s Bryson.

Brooks Koepka is another name you can’t ignore. He’s a three-time PGA Championship winner and is still one of the best major performers of the last decade. While his form has dipped since downgrading to LIV, Koepka has a history of flipping the switch in majors, especially when the spotlight is brightest. His most recent major win in 2023 proves he still has the competitive fire, and his ability to grind through tough setups makes him a dark horse at worst. If he finds even average form with the driver and putter, he could be in the mix come Sunday.

Joaquin Niemann and Jon Rahm both bring different but compelling arguments. Niemann has racked up wins on LIV and may finally be ready to break through on a major stage. He’s been dominant in LIV events, and if that form translates, his upside is real. Rahm, meanwhile, is the most accomplished LIV player in the field, with multiple majors to his name and a top-tier all-around game. He hasn’t made much noise since the switch to LIV, but he remains one of the most complete players in golf, and his odds reflect that.

The rest of the LIV group—players like Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, and Sergio Garcia—have major titles and resumes, but their current form doesn’t inspire much confidence. Mickelson surprised the world in 2021, but lightning rarely strikes twice, and Johnson and Garcia have struggled to stay relevant in high-level fields since leaving the PGA Tour. In a deep, sharp field like this, LIV’s best hope rests with its younger stars (like Niemann) and its proven major winners (like DeChambeau and Koepka).

While a LIV winner is a long shot at +350, DeChambeau, Rahm, and Koepka are still among the world’s best players. For this reason alone, I think betting “yes” here is viable at the long odds.

Bet: Yes (+350)

Three Chances to Win (Triple Chance Props)

If picking one winner feels like threading a needle, these triple chance props give you breathing room—spreading exposure across three top contenders while still offering attractive payouts.

• Scheffler, McIlroy, DeChambeau (+110)
  This is the chalkiest group on the board, and for good reason. Scheffler leads the field in just about every strokes gained metric and is coming off a dominant win at the CJ CUP. McIlroy owns Quail Hollow with four career wins at the venue and the best cumulative score to par there since 2010. DeChambeau is in terrific form, with a U.S. Open win in 2024 and a runner-up finish in last year’s PGA Championship. You’re paying a shorter price, but this trio covers elite form, major-winning experience, and course-specific dominance.
• Scheffler, Bryson, Xander (+195)
  A well-rounded mix of power and poise. Scheffler and Bryson bring the firepower, while Xander is the reigning PGA Champion and enters with decent form. While Scheffler is the stat king and Bryson the momentum play, Xander’s consistency and ability to avoid bogeys give this group serious four-day viability. It’s a nice blend if you want high-ceiling upside with some safety baked in.
• McIlroy, Bryson, Justin Thomas (+220)
  This is the most volatile—but also the most explosive—option. McIlroy and Bryson can both lead the field in birdies if they’re dialed in, and Justin Thomas has a history of contending at the PGA Championship. The risk here lies in JT’s current inconsistency, but the reward is a strong payout if all three play to their potential.

Scheffler, McIlroy, DeChambeau is the sharpest play on the board. It includes the best ball striker in the world (Scheffler), the course horse (McIlroy), and the LIV player with the highest ceiling (DeChambeau). It might be the shortest number, but in terms of win equity, it’s also the most logical bet.

Bet: Scheffler, McIlroy, DeChambeau (+110)

Golf Expert Picks This Week

Here are our highest-value selections across a range of props. These aren’t outright tournament winners, but they’re bets we believe offer the best return for the risk.

• Top 5 Finish: Bryson DeChambeau (+185)
  He’s rested, experienced at Quail Hollow, and motivated after a strong run this spring.
• Top 20 Finish: Tommy Fleetwood (+280)
  He has yet to win on the PGA Tour, but he’s routinely in the mix.
• To Miss the Cut: Jason Dufner (-260)
  Fading aging veterans is never sexy, but the trend is clear.
• Round 1 Head-to-Head: Xander Schauffele (+150 vs. Rory McIlroy)
  A price that doesn’t reflect how close this matchup actually is. Worth a play.

Looking to follow more of our favorite plays? Browse selections from the best handicappers in the business or compare sports betting sites before finalizing your PGA Championship bets.