Looking for the best PGA golf picks this week? You’re in the right place.

The 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship tees off Thursday in Memphis, and we’ve dug into the betting markets to bring you our favorite value plays. From Top 20 finish props to juicy group picks and parlay longshots, we’ve got something for every type of golf bettor.

Before we jump in, check out all of our golf picks and don’t miss our expert guide to betting on golf. Now, let’s get on with our top PGA Tour picks this week.

PGA Golf Picks This Week

Check out our favorite PGA golf picks for this week, courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

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Golf Expert Picks For This Week

Let’s break down our top PGA Tour picks for this week:

Top 20 Finish

• Scottie Scheffler (-1000)
• Xander Schauffele (-175)
• Tommy Fleetwood (-150)
• Russell Henley (-140)
• Collin Morikawa (-115)
• Ludvig Aberg (-110)
• Viktor Hovland (+100)
• Hideki Matsuyama (+100)
• Chris Gotterup (+120)

Chris Gotterup enters the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship in the best form of his career. Gotterup has three top-10 finishes in his last 3 starts, including a win at the Genesis Scottish Open, a third-place finish at The Open a week later, and a T10 at the 3M Open after coming back to the States. He’s coming in with impeccable form, and momentum like that doesn’t just evaporate overnight.

Statistically, Gotterup has been flames off the tee. He ranks 7th on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and is averaging over 316 yards per drive. That’s not just long, that’s elite torque, folks. Combine that with a recent spike in putting (0.575 SG: Putting over his last five starts), and you’ve got a legit Top 20 threat on a course like TPC Southwind that rewards length and precision.

Of course, he’s not perfect. His Strokes Gained: Approach is still pretty gross (ranked 96th on the Tour), and his Putts Per Round average (29.12) isn’t lighting up any spreadsheets. But the guy makes birdies in bunches and doesn’t implode. Which, in golf betting terms, is basically a green flag waving you toward a prop ticket. Also, he ranks third in Bogey Avoidance and 20th in Par Breakers. That’s a nice combo of “doesn’t screw up” and “occasionally goes nuclear.”

All of this for +120? That’s enough value to make you raise an eyebrow and sneak a little wager onto your card before your buddies catch on. Gotterup isn’t just a gut pick, he’s backed by stats, form, and a skill set that fits this course. If you’re building out a Top 20 ladder, this is a name you want near the top of it.

Best Bet: Chris Gotterup (+120)

Group E Winner

• Jordan Spieth (+300)
• J.J. Spaun (+320)
• Maverick McNealy (+320)
• Harry Hall (+360)
• Wyndham Clark (+360)

You’re not supposed to look at Group E and land on J.J. Spaun, but maybe that’s exactly why you should. Jordan Spieth gets all the headlines, Maverick McNealy is trendy, and Wyndham Clark has some bomber appeal. But Spaun? He’s the guy quietly stacking Top 20s and flashing stellar ball-striking. He’s finished inside the Top 20 in four of his last ten starts and won the U.S. Open just two months ago. He’s arguably the most-improved player on the PGA Tour this season.

Spaun’s numbers back up the eye test. He ranks 8th on the Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is arguably the single most important stat at TPC Southwind. The course rewards precision on small greens, and Spaun is landing them with consistency. He also ranks inside the top 10 in total Strokes Gained and currently sits 8th in the entire FedExCup standings, better than anyone else in this group.

And while Spieth and Clark might have more name value, they also bring volatility. Spaun, meanwhile, has quietly gained strokes in every major category over the past five starts and boasts a steady 305-yard driving average that keeps him in play without sacrificing position. He’s also outperformed McNealy and Hall in recent form, and that’s without a ton of fanfare.

At a price that’s likely longer than it should be, Spaun offers the perfect combo of safety and upside. He’s got history at this event (T24 in 2023), sharp irons, and real momentum heading into the weekend. Group E might be full of bigger names, but J.J. Spaun looks like the best bet to win it.

Best Bet: J.J. Spaun (+320)

Top 5 Finish Parlay

• Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland (+1100)
• Scottie Scheffler and Sam Burns (+1200)
• Scottie Scheffler and Keegan Bradley (+1300)
• Scottie Scheffler and Shane Lowry (+1400)
• Scottie Scheffler and JT Poston (+1800)
• Xander Schauffele and Maverick McNealy (+4000)
• Xander Schauffele and Wyndham Clark (+4500)

Let’s start with the obvious: Scottie Scheffler finishing in the Top 5 is less a question of “if” and more “by how many strokes.” He’s finished Top 10 in all ten of his last ten starts and has won four times over that span, including The Open, the PGA Championship, and THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. His Strokes Gained stats are absurd: first in Total, Approach, and Off-the-Tee. Scheffler is the best golfer we’ve seen since Tiger Woods, plain and simple.

Now enter J.T. Poston, the sneaky half of this +1800 parlay. You’re not backing Poston for consistency, you’re backing him for ceiling. He’s cracked the Top 5 already this season at the PGA Championship, where he finished T5 with a score of -5. And he’s coming off a T11 at the Wyndham Championship, where he shot -12. When the putter heats up, Poston can jump an entire field. You’re betting on lightning — and at 18-to-1, that’s what you want.

What makes this parlay especially live is how well their skill sets fit TPC Southwind. Scheffler’s iron game (first in SG: Approach) is tailor-made for the small greens, and Poston, despite a brutal putting stretch recently, still ranks Top 40 Around-the-Green and has a history of low rounds when the wedges are dialed in. It’s not about them both being perfect, it’s about them having the right profile to pop.

Most parlays are just wishful thinking. This one makes sense. Scheffler is nearly a lock, and Poston just needs one of his heater weeks, which he’s certainly capable of. If you’re going to swing on a two-man dart, this combo gives you elite reliability and the upside to cash big.

Bet: Scottie Scheffler + JT Poston (+1800)

Group A Winner

• Scottie Scheffler (-140)
• Xander Schauffele (+500)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+600)
• Justin Thomas (+650)
• Ludvig Aberg (+800)

Nobody wants to go head-to-head with Scheffler right now. The man is a walking stat anomaly with Top 10 finishes in literally every start this year. But in betting, sometimes you have to embrace the uncomfortable. And if you’re going to take a swing against the chalk, why not take it with Tommy Fleetwood’s long +600 odds?

Fleetwood has been lurking all season, stringing together top 10s and flashing upside in strong fields. He finished T2 at the Travelers (14-under), T4 at the Charles Schwab, and posted a T7 at the RBC Heritage. His game travels well, and he’s proven it at TPC Southwind before, including a T3 finish here in 2023 and three made cuts in three appearances.

Statistically, he brings plenty of tools to the fight. He ranks 9th on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and 16th Around-the-Green, which are both crucial at this course. His Total SG average of 1.390 is 4th on TOUR is not far behind Scheffler, who’s on another planet. If Fleetwood gets a neutral putting week (a big if, granted), he can hang around.

Group A is tough, but that’s why we’re getting +600. If Scheffler even slips a little, Fleetwood has the form, the course history, and the high-floor profile to take advantage. It’s not the safest bet on the board, but it’s one of the few that can pay off in a big way if things break right.

Bet: Tommy Fleetwood (+600)

Round 1 Leader

• Scottie Scheffler (+1100)
• Xander Schauffele (+2500)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+3000)
• Justin Thomas (+3000)
• Ludvig Aberg (+3000)
• Matt Fitzpatrick (+3000)
• Patrick Cantlay (+3500)
• Russell Henley (+3500)
• Viktor Hovland (+3500)
• Collin Morikawa (+3500)

If you’re betting on Round 1 leader props, you’re not looking for consistency; you’re in the market for electricity. And Ludvig Aberg? Just think of him as an electrician. While he’s still ironing out the four-day finishes, Aberg has made a habit of coming out hot, especially on receptive setups. At +3000, he’s the kind of profile that can blitz a Thursday leaderboard.

The driver is his superpower. Aberg ranks 12th on the Tour in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and averages 312.4 yards, which puts him in elite company. He’s gained more than half a stroke off the tee over his last five starts, and if he’s finding fairways early, he’ll have wedges in hand all day. He’s also coming off a Top 10 at the Scottish Open and a solid T23 at The Open, so the recent form is trending in the right direction.

Yes, there are concerns about the putter – his SG: Putting number is rough – but that matters a whole lot less in a one-round sample. Sometimes you just need 18 holes of neutrality. And when he does catch a warm putter, Aberg has the firepower to go deep, as we saw when he opened with a 68 at this very course last year.

This is admittedly a swing. But for a bet like this, that’s the whole point. Aberg can post something like -6 out of the gate, especially if he catches the calm morning wave. At 30-to-1, that’s more than enough juice to justify the gamble.

Bet: Ludvig Aberg (+3000)

Top 10 Finish

• Scottie Scheffler (-300)
• Xander Schauffele (+170)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+200)
• Justin Thomas (+220)
• Matt Fitzpatrick (+240)
• Ludvig Aberg (+260)
• Sepp Straka (+300)
• Ben Griffin (+300)
• Keegan Bradley (+330)

Keegan Bradley doesn’t always get the love he deserves, but +330 for a Top 10 finish? That’s what we call value. He’s quietly posted three Top 10s over his last ten starts, including a T8 at the PGA Championship and a career-best win at the Travelers. His game may not be flashy, but his underlying stats make him worth a bet in this range.

Bradley is 12th on the Tour in Strokes Gained: Total, and he’s been especially sharp with the putter lately, gaining 0.517 strokes per round over his last five tournaments. Bradley’s putter hasn’t always been a strength, but he’s been performing well on the greens. When you add that to his typically steady off-the-tee and approach play (both inside the top 50), you get a player with a rock-solid floor and just enough upside to chase the top of the leaderboard.

He’s also no stranger to TPC Southwind. His best finish here came in 2021 (T11 at -12), and while last year’s T59 was underwhelming, it came during a down patch in his season. Since then, he’s bounced back with wins, Top 10s, and consistent ball-striking week in and week out. His tee-to-green profile fits this course well, and his improved putting gives him the safety net he used to lack.

For +330, you’re betting on a guy trending in the right direction, with strong historical course form, and legit strokes-gained metrics across the board. In a field where the elite names soak up most of the betting attention, Bradley offers a good combination of value and upside. Plus, he’s already shown this season that he knows how to finish the job.

Bet: Keegan Bradley (+330)

To Win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship

If we’re taking a swing on someone not named Scottie Scheffler, the best outright value on the board might just be Tommy Fleetwood at +2200. Scheffler is the clear favorite at +280, but you’re not getting much return for all that risk. And, let’s be honest, even the best players can have an off week. Fleetwood offers something different: a strong statistical profile, a great price, and a solid track record at TPC Southwind.

Fleetwood has finished in the top 10 four times over his last 10 starts, including a runner-up at the Travelers and a T4 at the Charles Schwab. His approach play has been a strength – ranking 9th on the Tour in SG: Approach – and he’s also 4th overall in Total Strokes Gained. Fleetwood’s done it here before, too, finishing T3 in this very event back in 2023.

At +2200, you’re getting win equity for a player who checks all the boxes: trending form, good course history, and the numbers to back it up. If you’re looking to fade the chalk without venturing too far down the board, Fleetwood is the best value available.

Bet: Tommy Fleetwood (+2200)