PGA Golf Picks This Week: 2026 Valero Texas Open

The 2026 Valero Texas Open takes us to TPC San Antonio – The Oaks Course, and this week’s board is interesting for two reasons. It is the final PGA Tour stop before the Masters, and it also offers one last win-and-you’re-in path to Augusta for players still trying to punch that ticket.

That matters, but the bigger betting angle is still the course. This is a long par 72 with Bermudagrass surfaces, exposed wind, and a setup that puts pressure on controlled ball-striking. TPC San Antonio tends to reward players who can stay solid tee to green, hit long irons well, and avoid giving shots back when conditions get tricky.

That makes this a good week to stay practical with the card. The best golf bets this week are not just about backing the biggest names, but about finding players whose current form and skill sets actually match what this course asks for. For readers tracking the full weekly board, this spot fits naturally alongside the site’s broader Golf Picks This Week coverage.

PGA Golf Picks This Week

Here is the quick-hit board for this week’s best golf bets.

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Golf Expert Picks For This Week

These are the weekly golf picks that stand out most on the Valero Texas Open board. Bettors looking for a broader menu of tournament-week wagers can also compare these leans with the site’s full golf picks and matchup board.

To Win Outright

• Tommy Fleetwood (+1400)
• Ludvig Aberg (+1550)
• Collin Morikawa (+1750)
• Russell Henley (+1800)
• Jordan Spieth (+1850)

Russell Henley at +1800 is the outright that makes the most sense if you want a player whose game matches this setup without paying the very top number on the board. This is a course that leans into control, clean approach play, and steady tee-to-green execution, and Henley checks those boxes.

He also brings the kind of all-around profile that works well at TPC San Antonio. His current season numbers show positive form in both approach play and off-the-tee play, which matters on a long par 72 where you still need to stay in position. That kind of balance gives him a real winning path here.

There is also enough course comfort to trust the number. Henley finished fourth here in 2024, so this is not just a theory play based on skill set alone. He has already shown he can navigate this venue well.

The price helps too. In a compact outright market with several top names clustered under +1900, Henley still gives you a little more room than Fleetwood or Aberg while offering a similarly strong floor. That combination is useful in a week where the course fit matters as much as pure star power.

Bet: Russell Henley (+1800)

Top 10 Finish (Including Ties)

• Tommy Fleetwood (+200)
• Ludvig Aberg (+205)
• Russell Henley (+210)
• Jordan Spieth (+240)
• Collin Morikawa (+250)

Jordan Spieth at +240 for a Top 10 is more appealing than chasing him outright. The number gives you exposure to his upside at a course where he has already won, and that matters more in a placement market than it does in a full-field win bet.

His recent form is solid enough to support that angle. Spieth has posted T11 at the Valspar Championship, T11 at Bay Hill, and T12 at Genesis, which shows he has been hovering around the top of quality leaderboards without quite breaking through. That is often the right profile for a Top 10 ticket.

The course-history piece is another reason this market works. Spieth won this event in 2021, and when a player already owns a strong result at a specific venue, it makes sense to look at a lower-variance angle if the outright price does not fully convince you.

At +240, the number is not cheap, but it is justified. You are buying a golfer with proven comfort here and recent finishes that suggest he is close enough to contend again.

Bet: Jordan Spieth (+240)

To Win Group Top European

• Tommy Fleetwood (+450)
• Ludvig Aberg (+500)
• Robert MacIntyre (+550)
• Sepp Straka (+840)

Tommy Fleetwood at +450 is the best way to play this group board because it gives you access to one of the steadiest players in the field without needing him to win the entire tournament. That is an important difference this week.

Fleetwood has been consistently strong in 2026, with a T4 at Pebble Beach, T7 at Genesis, and T8 at THE PLAYERS. That kind of result pattern stands out in a group market, especially when consistency can separate one player from a small pod quickly.

His approach play also strengthens the case. Fleetwood’s current form includes elite approach numbers, and that matters on a course where long-iron control and clean ball-striking are major parts of the handicap.

Compared to the rest of this group, Fleetwood has the clearest blend of recent form and reliable profile. Aberg has obvious talent, but Fleetwood looks like the cleaner placement-style option in this specific market. That makes +450 a strong number.

Bet: Tommy Fleetwood (+450)

To Win Group Top American

• Russell Henley (+1025)
• Jordan Spieth (+1125)
• Maverick McNealy (+1400)
• Collin Morikawa (+1400)

Collin Morikawa at +1400 is the kind of group-market play that offers better betting value than his outright number. He is still short enough on the main board to be respected, but this format gives you a more targeted way to back him.

The recent form is easy to like. Morikawa won Pebble Beach earlier this season, then added a T7 at Genesis and a fifth at Bay Hill. That is the profile of a player who is consistently putting himself in strong positions against good competition.

The fit works here too. Morikawa entered THE PLAYERS with a top-five season rank in SG: Approach, and that is one of the cleanest indicators you can bring into a course like TPC San Antonio. When long-iron precision and controlled ball-striking are central to the test, his skill set stands out.

This market also gives him a clearer path than the outright. Instead of needing four full days to end in a win, he just needs to beat a specific American pod. At +1400, that is a more attractive way to buy into his form. Bettors wanting more general strategy can pair this with the site’s golf betting guide.

Bet: Collin Morikawa (+1400)

Top 5 Finish Parlay

• Tommy Fleetwood Top 5 (+355)
• Jordan Spieth Top 5 (+480)

The Tommy Fleetwood Top 5 plus Jordan Spieth Top 5 parlay at +2539 is not a low-risk play, but it is one of the more interesting ceiling bets on the board. The number is strong enough that you do not need to force it into a larger card, but it is worth a look as an upside swing.

Fleetwood is the steadier half of the ticket. His recent run of results gives him a realistic path to another top-end finish, and his approach profile matches what this course tends to reward. He is here because the floor is strong and the form is real.

Spieth brings the course-history side. He has already won at this venue, and while he is not the same type of steady week-to-week profile as Fleetwood, he does bring a proven comfort level here that matters in a top-five conversation.

That is what makes the parlay viable. One golfer gives you consistency, the other gives you course comfort and upside, and both are already among the shortest Top 5 options on the board. It is still a high-variance bet, but the payout is good enough to justify the risk.

Bet: Tommy Fleetwood Top 5 + Jordan Spieth Top 5 parlay (+2539)

Before placing anything, it is worth comparing books to make sure these numbers are still available. The site’s sportsbook reviews and betting app breakdowns are a useful starting point for that.

Bettors who want to compare these picks with broader market opinion can also check the current best handicappers leaderboard. And once this week wraps, the cleanest way to evaluate how the card held up is by looking back through the site’s golf tournament results coverage.