2026 MLB Manager Of The Year Award Odds and Predictions

Manager of the Year is one of the trickier MLB futures markets on the board. The prices are tight in both leagues entering Opening Day, and there is no runaway favorite on either side. For bettors building out a broader futures card, this market fits naturally alongside the latest World Series odds and predictions and MLB pennant odds and predictions.

That is what makes this award worth a closer look. Voters tend to reward managers whose clubs beat expectations, not simply the skipper attached to the best roster, so the real angle is finding teams with a believable playoff path and enough room to surprise. It also helps to compare prices across the board before betting, especially if you already use trusted sportsbook reviews to shop futures markets.

That setup matters this year. The AL favorite is Dan Wilson at +650, while Carlos Mendoza opens as the NL favorite at +700, but both boards leave room for value if the right team makes a bigger-than-expected jump. If you want more daily context around team form as the season develops, the full MLB picks page and updated MLB team pages can help frame whether a futures ticket still has a live path.

Who Won The American League MOTY?

Stephen Vogt won the 2025 American League Manager of the Year award after guiding the Cleveland Guardians to another AL Central title through a major midseason deficit, a weak offensive season, and multiple roster issues. Cleveland erased a 15 1/2-game gap in July and was still 11 games back as late as Sept. 5 before finishing the comeback.

Who Won The National League MOTY?

Pat Murphy won the 2025 National League Manager of the Year award after leading the Milwaukee Brewers to a second straight NL Central title and the best record in MLB. Milwaukee finished 97-65, overcame an ugly start and key departures, and again beat modest outside expectations.

MLB Manager Of The Year Odds

The latest Manager of the Year market is tight in both leagues, which is usually a sign that bettors should focus more on path and narrative than just the shortest number.

The AL board is slightly top-led but still compact, with no manager shorter than +650. The NL market looks even more crowded, with a large cluster near the top, so that side may offer more volatility if one lower-expectation team turns into a real playoff story.

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AL Manager Of The Year Odds

• Dan Wilson (+650)
• Craig Albernaz (+700)
• Skip Schumaker (+800)
• Alex Cora (+900)
• John Schneider (+900)
• Matt Quatraro (+950)
• Joe Espada (+950)
• A.J. Hinch (+950)
• Derek Shelton (+1000)

Dan Wilson (SEA) +650

Wilson sits at the top of the AL board for a reason. Seattle already looks like a legitimate contender after pushing Toronto to Game 7 of the ALCS, so the path is obvious if the Mariners win the West or finish near the top of the league.

The problem is price versus narrative. Seattle is no longer sneaking up on anyone, and this award usually gets tougher to win when your team is already expected to be this good.

Craig Albernaz (BAL) +700

Albernaz has a strong first-year-manager angle, and Baltimore has the kind of rebound profile that can play well in this market. After a 75-87 season, a return to playoff contention would give voters an easy story to support.

There is still some drag here because the Orioles remain a talented roster. If Baltimore bounces back, voters may credit the roster as much as the manager, which makes +700 feel fair rather than cheap.

Alex Cora (BOS) +900

Cora has a credible case if Boston turns a playoff season into something bigger. The Red Sox already won 89 games in 2025, and if they take the AL East over a loaded division, that would be a serious award résumé.

The issue is that Boston is not coming from nowhere. The roster has improved, expectations are real, and that takes away some of the surprise value you usually want in this market.

Matt Quatraro (KC) +950

Quatraro looks like one of the cleaner betting cases in the AL. Kansas City has already shown it can make a sharp jump under him, and the Royals now enter 2026 off back-to-back winning seasons with a realistic path to another step forward.

That matters because this award is often about the next jump, not the first sign of competence. If Kansas City wins the AL Central or pushes well past .500 again, Quatraro has both the narrative and the number to cash.

Joe Espada (HOU) +950

Espada is attached to a bounce-back path that is easy to see. Houston missed the postseason by one win in 2025, so a return to October would immediately put him back in the conversation.

The problem is that Houston still carries brand-name weight. Even after the miss, the Astros are not the kind of true surprise team that usually creates the strongest Manager of the Year ticket.

Bet: Matt Quatraro (+950)

NL Manager Of The Year Odds

• Carlos Mendoza (+700)
• Don Kelly (+750)
• Terry Francona (+750)
• Dave Roberts (+800)
• Rob Thomson (+800)
• Craig Counsell (+800)
• Walt Weiss (+800)
• Craig Stammen (+850)
• Tony Vitello (+950)

Carlos Mendoza (NYM) +700

Mendoza opens as the NL favorite because the Mets have a clear rebound path and enough star power to make a fast move back into the postseason. If New York turns last year’s 83-79 finish into a strong playoff season, the case writes itself.

Still, this is not a perfect Manager of the Year profile. Big payroll teams with major stars usually need to do more than simply get back where they were expected to be.

Don Kelly (PIT) +750

Kelly has one of the stronger upside cases on the board because Pittsburgh still carries real uncertainty. If the Pirates turn their young core and headline talent into a Wild Card berth or real division push, that would be exactly the kind of surprise story voters reward.

The appeal is obvious, but so is the risk. Pittsburgh still needs a lot to go right, especially on the offensive side, so the ticket has narrative strength but less stability than some others.

Terry Francona (CIN) +750

Francona already led Cincinnati to an 83-79 record and a playoff berth on the final day of the 2025 regular season. If the Reds go from fringe playoff team to clear postseason team or serious NL Central threat, he will have a real case.

The price is reasonable, but the award path is narrower than it looks. Because Cincinnati already broke through last year, the next step probably has to be a division-level season rather than just another Wild Card finish.

Tony Vitello (SF) +950

Vitello brings a classic first-year intrigue angle, and that matters in this market. If the Giants turn an uncertain profile into a playoff season, the story around a first-year MLB manager would be strong.

That said, this is still a higher-variance bet. San Francisco looks volatile, and even the positive case depends on the Giants doing more than just hanging around .500.

Clayton McCullough (MIA) +1200

McCullough stands out because the number matches the award profile so well. Miami improved by 17 wins in 2025, stayed in the race until the final days, and still enters 2026 with modest outside expectations.

That gives him a better surprise path than most shorter prices. If the Marlins take one more real step and reach the postseason or stay firmly in the Wild Card race deep into September, +1200 is the kind of number that can beat this market.

Bet: Clayton McCullough (+1200)

MLB Manager Of The Year Winners

Here is a look at the recent Manager of the Year history in both leagues. For more futures coverage and season-long betting content, readers can also browse the broader MLB betting blog archive, study the current best handicappers leaderboard, and review the full MLB expert betting guide.