MLB Manager of the Year Odds and Predictions 2026: Venable, Weiss Lead

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MLB Manager of the Year Odds and Predictions have become much more concentrated entering September. Will Venable is now a heavy American League favorite around -235 after guiding the Chicago White Sox from 102 losses last season to first place in the AL Central, while Walt Weiss leads the National League market around +190 with Atlanta sitting atop the NL East.

The biggest question in the AL is whether Venable’s turnaround is already too strong for Kevin Cash or Chad Tracy to overcome. Tampa Bay owns the league’s best record, while Boston has gone from a 10-17 start to a comfortable Wild Card position under interim manager Tracy.

The NL race is closer. Weiss combines a first-year managerial story with Atlanta’s improvement from 76-86 in 2025 to 82-57, but Pat Murphy manages the best team in baseball and Don Mattingly has led one of the season’s biggest in-season recoveries in Philadelphia. Venable and Weiss remain the ScoresAndStats predictions, while Cash and Mattingly offer the most attractive alternative prices.

Quick Manager of the Year Betting Takeaways

• AL favorite: Will Venable around -235.
• AL prediction: Will Venable.
• Best new AL value: Kevin Cash at +425 or better.
• AL turnaround alternative: Chad Tracy around +360.
• NL favorite: Walt Weiss around +190.
• NL prediction: Walt Weiss.
• Safest NL alternative: Pat Murphy around +240.
• Best NL value: Don Mattingly at +500 or better.
• Best existing August tickets: Venable +105 and Weiss +600.

How MLB Manager of the Year Voting Works

The Baseball Writers’ Association of America selects one Manager of the Year in each league. There are 30 voters for the American League award and another 30 for the National League.

Each voter submits three names. First place receives five points, second place receives three and third place receives one.

The most important timing detail is that ballots are submitted before the postseason begins. October results therefore do not affect the award. Division titles, Wild Card qualification and regular-season improvement through the end of September carry much more importance.

Recent history provides another useful betting filter. Every Manager of the Year winner since 2012 has reached the postseason, and most of those winners managed clubs that had missed October the previous season.

That pattern strongly supports Venable, Cash and Weiss. Chicago and Tampa Bay both missed the 2025 postseason, while Atlanta finished 76-86 and well outside the National League field.

Boston and Philadelphia create different cases. Both reached the postseason in 2025, but midseason managerial changes created clear before-and-after stories in 2026.

The complete voting structure is available through the official BBWAA voting FAQ.

AL MLB Manager of the Year Odds 2026

The American League market has narrowed to three realistic contenders. Venable is the clear favorite, followed by Tracy and Cash. Aaron Boone remains technically available but has moved to a massive +6600.

Venable’s -235 price implies a break-even probability of approximately 70.1 percent before sportsbook margin. Tracy at +360 requires approximately 21.7 percent, while Cash at +425 needs about 19.0 percent.

Those prices reflect the strength of Chicago’s story rather than simply ranking the AL teams by record. Tampa Bay is 83-55 and owns the best record in the league, but Venable manages a White Sox club that lost 102 games one season ago.

Will Venable Manager of the Year Prediction

Will Venable remains the ScoresAndStats prediction to win AL Manager of the Year. The White Sox are 73-65, lead Cleveland by three games in the AL Central and currently occupy a postseason position that would have been difficult to imagine after three consecutive 100-loss seasons.

Chicago finished 60-102 in 2025. The White Sox have already exceeded that win total by 13 games with more than three weeks remaining.

That year-to-year transformation is the strongest award narrative in either league. Venable does not need the White Sox to finish with the AL’s best record. If Chicago completes the turnaround by winning the Central, voters will have an extremely simple argument for placing him first.

The remaining risk is the division race. Cleveland is only three games behind and has won eight of its last 10. If Chicago loses the Central and falls into a Wild Card position, Venable’s case remains strong but becomes much less automatic.

The betting problem is price. The original August recommendation at +105 was attractive because Chicago still had significant work remaining. At -235, bettors now must risk $235 to win $100.

Venable is still the prediction, but -235 is no longer the strongest new wager. A move toward -200 would create a more reasonable entry, while existing +105 or preseason +2500 tickets should be held.

ScoresAndStats AL Prediction: Will Venable wins AL Manager of the Year if Chicago holds the AL Central.

Betting Decision: Existing +105 tickets are excellent. For a new wager, prefer -200 or better.

Kevin Cash Manager of the Year Value at +425

Kevin Cash offers the best new AL value at approximately +425. Tampa Bay owns an 83-55 record and sits atop the American League after finishing only 77-85 and missing the postseason in 2025.

That improvement gives Cash more than the familiar story of another competitive Rays season. Tampa Bay has gone from fourth in the AL East to the league’s best record in one year.

The Rays also lead a division containing the Yankees and Red Sox, two clubs with substantially larger payroll expectations. Finishing ahead of both strengthens the managerial argument.

Cash has already won Manager of the Year twice, in 2020 and 2021. Previous awards should not eliminate him from consideration. Stephen Vogt and Pat Murphy each won in both 2024 and 2025.

The main obstacle is Venable. Tampa Bay can finish with the best record in the AL and Cash may still lose if voters place greater weight on Chicago’s transformation from 102 losses to a division championship.

That creates an interesting conditional wager. Cash becomes much more likely to win if Cleveland overtakes Chicago in the Central while Tampa Bay maintains the AL’s best record.

At +425, bettors receive enough upside to accept that dependency. The price is actually longer than the +250 available in early August despite Tampa Bay remaining in first place.

Our Best New AL Value Pick: Kevin Cash at +425 or better.

Chad Tracy Manager of the Year Odds at +360

Chad Tracy owns perhaps the clearest in-season turnaround story in the American League. Boston dismissed Alex Cora after a 10-17 start and promoted Tracy from Triple-A Worcester.

The Red Sox are now 75-64, meaning they have gone 65-47 since the managerial change. They also own a +82 run differential and remain securely involved in the Wild Card race.

An interim manager taking a club from 10-17 to October would create a compelling ballot case. Tracy also benefits from the obvious timing of the improvement because voters can directly compare the team’s performance before and after he took control.

There are two reasons he remains behind Venable. Boston won 89 games and reached the playoffs in 2025, while Chicago lost 102. Voters may view the Red Sox as a talented team recovering toward preseason expectations rather than an unexpected contender.

The second problem is division position. Tampa Bay leads the AL East, so Tracy may need to win the award from a Wild Card spot while Venable manages a division leader and Cash manages the league’s best team.

The price has shortened from +550 in August to +360. That makes the current wager less attractive even though Boston’s postseason position has strengthened.

Tracy remains a legitimate contender, but Cash offers the better new value at a longer number.

ScoresAndStats View: Chad Tracy is playable at +400 or better, with existing +550 tickets worth holding.

NL MLB Manager of the Year Odds 2026

The National League race remains much more competitive. Weiss leads the market, Murphy is close behind and Mattingly plus Stammen remain within realistic striking distance.

Weiss at +190 has an implied break-even probability of approximately 34.5 percent. Murphy at +240 requires about 29.4 percent, while Mattingly at +500 needs only 16.7 percent.

Unlike the AL, the NL favorite is not close to an implied 70 percent probability. The race can still change substantially during September.

Walt Weiss Manager of the Year Prediction

Walt Weiss remains the ScoresAndStats prediction to win NL Manager of the Year after shortening from +600 in August to approximately +190.

The Braves are 82-57 and lead Philadelphia by three games in the NL East. More importantly for this award, Atlanta finished only 76-86 in 2025 and missed the postseason by a wide margin.

Weiss therefore has both team success and year-to-year improvement. This is his first season as Braves manager after spending eight seasons as Brian Snitker’s bench coach, giving voters a clean connection between the managerial transition and Atlanta’s return to contention.

The Braves have already won six more games than they did during the entire 2025 season despite still having more than 20 games remaining.

The main argument against Weiss is roster quality. Atlanta entered the year with championship expectations, and voters can reasonably conclude that a talented team is simply returning to its expected level.

That is where Murphy becomes dangerous. Milwaukee owns baseball’s best record despite operating without the same level of preseason star power.

Weiss nevertheless has a fresher story than Murphy and a much stronger division position than Mattingly or Stammen. Winning the NL East after a 10-win year-over-year improvement should keep him at or near the top of the ballot.

The +190 price is still playable for bettors who believe Atlanta holds the division, but the +600 recommended in August was clearly the superior entry.

ScoresAndStats NL Prediction: Walt Weiss at +190 or better.

Pat Murphy Manager of the Year Odds at +240

Pat Murphy has the strongest pure performance case in the National League. Milwaukee is 86-53, owns the best record in Major League Baseball and has an MLB-best +168 run differential.

The Brewers are not simply winning close games at an unsustainable rate. Their expected record based on runs scored and allowed is almost identical to their actual mark.

Murphy also has history working both for and against him. He won NL Manager of the Year in 2024 and 2025, becoming one of only four managers to win consecutive awards.

No manager has won the award three seasons in a row. That does not mean voters will refuse to select Murphy, but another win would require them to reward sustained excellence over a fresher turnaround story.

If Milwaukee finishes with the best record in baseball by a meaningful margin, the argument may become too strong to ignore. A 100-win season would make Murphy a serious threat to Weiss regardless of award fatigue.

At +240, Murphy offers a slightly larger payout than Weiss and arguably the safer team-performance profile. He is the strongest alternative for bettors who believe the best regular-season team should drive the vote.

Safest NL Alternative: Pat Murphy at +240 or better.

Don Mattingly Manager of the Year Value at +500

Don Mattingly remains the best value wager in the NL at approximately +500. Philadelphia fired Rob Thomson after a 9-19 start and elevated Mattingly from bench coach to interim manager.

The Phillies are now 79-60. That means Philadelphia has gone 70-41 since Mattingly took control, one of the most dramatic managerial turnarounds in baseball this season.

The improvement is especially relevant because the Phillies are no longer simply fighting to recover to .500. They own a comfortable Wild Card position and sit only three games behind Atlanta in the NL East.

A Philadelphia division title would completely change this market. Mattingly would combine a 9-19 starting point, a managerial change and a comeback past Weiss’ Braves into one extremely powerful voting narrative.

Even a Wild Card berth leaves Mattingly in contention. The Phillies have gone from one of baseball’s most disappointing April teams to 19 games above .500.

The drawback is expectations. Philadelphia won 96 games and the NL East in 2025, so voters know this was already a high-payroll postseason roster. Mattingly is receiving credit for restoring a talented team rather than creating an unexpected contender from the bottom of the standings.

The +500 price compensates for that weakness. Mattingly becomes the best NL bet if Philadelphia closes the division gap without his odds moving below approximately +350.

Our Best NL Value Pick: Don Mattingly at +500 or better.

Craig Stammen Manager of the Year Odds at +550

Craig Stammen is the fourth choice around +550 during his first season managing the Padres. San Diego is 73-66 and sits directly on the National League Wild Card cutline.

Stammen’s candidacy is interesting because he entered the job without previous professional coaching experience. Guiding a postseason team during his first year in the dugout would give voters a clear managerial achievement.

The statistical case is weaker than those of Weiss, Murphy and Mattingly. San Diego won 90 games and made the playoffs in 2025, so the current 73-66 pace represents a step backward rather than a major improvement.

The Padres also have not secured October baseball. Arizona is directly behind them, meaning one difficult stretch could move San Diego outside the postseason entirely.

That makes +550 relatively expensive. Stammen becomes more compelling if San Diego finishes strongly enough to secure the first Wild Card position, but at the current standings and price, Mattingly offers the better risk-to-return profile.

ScoresAndStats View: Pass at +550 unless San Diego creates meaningful separation in the Wild Card race.

Why the Playoff Race Matters to Manager of the Year

The final three weeks should decide both awards because postseason qualification remains one of the strongest historical filters for Manager of the Year voting.

The division races matter more for Venable and Weiss than for any other candidates. Both lead the market because voters can easily connect a division championship with dramatic year-over-year improvement.

Cash and Murphy have the opposite problem. Their clubs may finish with the best records in their leagues, but voters must decide whether sustained organizational excellence deserves more credit than a surprise turnaround.

The broader October outlook can be compared through the updated World Series odds and predictions.

Manager of the Year Odds Movement Since August

The market movement since the previous August update has been substantial. Venable and Weiss both transformed from attractive plus-money selections into clear favorites.

Venable’s move is the largest among the favorites. A +105 ticket required approximately 48.8 percent break-even probability. The current -235 price requires more than 70 percent.

Weiss has experienced a similar adjustment. His +600 August price required only a 14.3 percent break-even rate, compared with approximately 34.5 percent at +190.

Cash is the unusual case. Tampa Bay still owns the best AL record, yet his odds have drifted from +250 to +425 because Venable’s story strengthened and Tracy continued Boston’s recovery.

The market also removed several early NL contenders entirely. Don Kelly was the +425 favorite in early August but Pittsburgh is now 67-71 and outside the postseason field. Blake Butera and Oliver Marmol have also moved off the board.

That change reinforces the importance of playoff probability. An impressive expectations narrative becomes much less valuable once a manager’s team falls out of realistic October position.

Previous Manager of the Year Picks Updated

The August ScoresAndStats update performed well from a market-value perspective. Both primary predictions shortened significantly, while the recommended alternative prices also improved.

Existing Venable and Weiss tickets should not be replaced simply because the current market offers shorter odds. The purpose of an early futures wager is to secure a better number before the probability becomes obvious.

A bettor holding Weiss +600 now has a substantially stronger position than someone entering at +190. The same applies even more dramatically to preseason Venable tickets at +2500.

New bettors must evaluate today’s price rather than the quality of the old recommendation. Venable can still be the most likely AL winner without being the best bet at -235.

Recent MLB Manager of the Year Winners

The recent winners reinforce how heavily voters reward postseason teams, unexpected improvement and managers who outperform preseason expectations.

Murphy can make history by becoming the first manager to win three consecutive Manager of the Year awards. Cash would also join the group of three-time winners if he captures the AL award.

Mattingly is the only other current primary contender who has already won the award, taking the NL honor with Miami in 2020.

Final MLB Manager of the Year Odds and Predictions

Venable remains the strongest AL prediction because no other contender can match the scale of Chicago’s transformation. Going from 60-102 to a possible division championship in one season gives voters a simple, memorable reason to place Venable first.

Cash is the better new betting value. Tampa Bay owns the league’s best record, missed the postseason in 2025 and can be backed at +425. If Chicago loses the AL Central, Cash’s path becomes substantially stronger.

Weiss remains the NL prediction. Atlanta has already surpassed last season’s win total, leads the NL East and is producing the type of first-year managerial rebound that traditionally performs well with voters.

Murphy is the safest challenger because Milwaukee owns the best record in baseball. Mattingly provides the better payout and could become the most dangerous candidate if Philadelphia turns its recovery into an NL East race during September.

The best current approach is therefore different from early August. Existing Venable +105 and Weiss +600 tickets have substantial closing-line value, but new bettors should not automatically chase those same managers at dramatically shorter prices.

Cash and Mattingly provide better alternatives for bettors who want plus-money exposure. Both have clear postseason paths, measurable improvement stories and odds that remain long enough to compensate for being behind the favorites.

Current MLB game prices and playoff-race markets are available through the ScoresAndStats MLB odds page, while daily selections can be followed through MLB picks.

Our 2026 AL Manager of the Year Prediction: Will Venable.

Our 2026 NL Manager of the Year Prediction: Walt Weiss.

MLB Manager of the Year FAQs