Tarik Skubal is No. 1 on MLB.com’s Top 30 free agents. On Kalshi, read at 14:47 UTC on 10 Nov 2026, the Mets are priced at 40.5 cents (mid) to be his next team and the Dodgers at 22.5, which is 36.5% and 20.3% with the margin removed. One major-league free agent has signed so far. These are our MLB free agent predictions, and they go no further than those prices.
Every 2026 line below covers the regular season, all teams combined, from the MLB Stats API, read 10 Nov 2026. Ages are as of 30 June 2027, MLB.com’s “baseball age” convention, from birth dates on the MLB Stats API. A player’s last team is the one he elected free agency from in MLB’s transactions.
MLB free agent predictions: what the market says about Skubal
| Outcome | Bid | Ask | Mid | Chance, margin removed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 40¢ | 41¢ | 40.5¢ | 36.5% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 22¢ | 23¢ | 22.5¢ | 20.3% |
| Retires or no team by 25 Mar 2027 | 5¢ | 6¢ | 5.5¢ | 5.0% |
| Chicago Cubs | 4¢ | 6¢ | 5¢ | 4.5% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 4¢ | 5¢ | 4.5¢ | 4.1% |
| San Diego Padres | 4¢ | 5¢ | 4.5¢ | 4.1% |
Each Kalshi contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not, so a price in cents reads as a chance in percent. The bid is the best price a buyer will pay. The ask is the best price a seller will take, and the mid is the halfway point between them. The 31 mids add to 111 cents, so the chance column divides each mid by 111. That takes the margin out.
The market settles Yes for the team Skubal signs with, once MLB makes the signing official before 25 Mar 2027. His old team counts. If he retires or is unsigned on 25 Mar 2027, it settles on “Retires / No Team”, which is priced at 5.5 cents. Every outcome outside the table sits at 1.5 cents or less.
Skubal went 12-7 with a 2.72 ERA in 26 starts in 2026, with 186 strikeouts and a 0.96 WHIP over 158.2 innings for the Tigers and then the Dodgers. Per MLB.com, he has won the past two American League Cy Young Awards.
No US sportsbook next-team price could be read on 10 Nov 2026 for any player on this page. Kalshi lists a live next-team market only for Skubal among these players. For everyone else, this page gives the numbers and makes no call on where he signs: our MLB free agency predictions go only as far as a posted price.
The top free-agent pitchers
| # | Pitcher | Age | Last team | G/GS | IP | ERA | SO | WHIP | SV | QO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarik Skubal (LHP) | 30 | LA Dodgers | 26/26 | 158.2 | 2.72 | 186 | 0.96 | 0 | Ineligible |
| 2 | Michael King (RHP) | 32 | San Diego Padres | 32/32 | 185.0 | 3.21 | 159 | 1.18 | 0 | Ineligible |
| 3 | Freddy Peralta (RHP) | 31 | Tampa Bay Rays | 32/32 | 169.0 | 4.42 | 156 | 1.33 | 0 | Ineligible |
| 8 | Clay Holmes (RHP) | 34 | Chicago Cubs | 18/18 | 101.1 | 3.29 | 78 | 1.19 | 0 | Ineligible |
| 9 | Adrian Morejon (LHP) | 28 | San Diego Padres | 76/0 | 86.0 | 2.83 | 107 | 1.08 | 3 | Yes |
| 10 | Trevor Rogers (LHP) | 29 | Baltimore Orioles | 30/30 | 169.2 | 4.03 | 157 | 1.18 | 0 | Yes |
| 14 | Sonny Gray (RHP) | 37 | Boston Red Sox | 29/29 | 169.0 | 2.72 | 149 | 1.15 | 0 | Ineligible |
| 16 | Tyler Mahle (RHP) | 32 | Atlanta Braves | 27/27 | 149.0 | 3.99 | 137 | 1.23 | 0 | No |
| 17 | David Bednar (RHP) | 32 | NY Yankees | 64/0 | 69.1 | 2.47 | 76 | 1.04 | 35 | Yes |
| 18 | Nick Martinez (RHP) | 36 | Tampa Bay Rays | 31/31 | 180.0 | 3.10 | 109 | 1.09 | 0 | Ineligible |
| 19 | Casey Mize (RHP) | 30 | San Diego Padres | 26/26 | 131.1 | 4.32 | 110 | 1.23 | 0 | Ineligible |
| 23 | Foster Griffin (LHP) | 31 | Cleveland Guardians | 31/31 | 172.2 | 3.60 | 158 | 1.21 | 0 | Ineligible |
| 24 | Kevin Gausman (RHP) | 36 | Chicago Cubs | 32/32 | 177.2 | 4.51 | 184 | 1.27 | 0 | Ineligible |
| 25 | Shota Imanaga (LHP) | 33 | Chicago Cubs | 32/32 | 174.1 | 3.77 | 174 | 1.10 | 0 | Ineligible |
| 26 | Michael Soroka (RHP) | 29 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 22/21 | 116.0 | 3.41 | 114 | 1.09 | 0 | No |
| 29 | Raisel Iglesias (RHP) | 37 | Atlanta Braves | 59/0 | 60.0 | 2.55 | 64 | 1.08 | 34 | Ineligible |
| 30 | Robbie Ray (LHP) | 35 | San Diego Padres | 31/30 | 165.2 | 3.59 | 140 | 1.35 | 0 | Ineligible |
Michael King opted out of his Padres deal and took the $5 million buyout, per MLB.com. He would have earned $28 million in 2027 and $30 million in 2028. He made 32 starts in 2026 with a 3.21 ERA over 185.0 innings.
Freddy Peralta split 2026 between the Mets and the Rays and finished at a 4.42 ERA in 32 starts. MLB.com breaks it in two: a 5-9 record and a 4.99 ERA in 22 starts with the Mets, then a 3.25 ERA in 10 starts with Tampa Bay. He then earned ALCS MVP honors, per MLB.com.
Sonny Gray went 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA for Boston. Per MLB.com, he led the American League with a career-high 18 wins, and the 2.72 was his lowest ERA since his rookie season of 2013.
Nick Martinez went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA over 180.0 innings for the Rays. Per MLB.com, his 1.3 walks per nine innings were the lowest in the league, and the season earned him the Game 1 start in the World Series.
Trevor Rogers made 30 starts for Baltimore. He had a 4.03 ERA, 157 strikeouts and 39 walks over 169.2 innings, and he received a qualifying offer.
Two relievers stand out. Adrian Morejon pitched in 76 games for the Padres, none as a starter, with a 2.83 ERA and 107 strikeouts in 86.0 innings. David Bednar had 35 saves in 39 chances for the Yankees, per MLB.com, with a 2.47 ERA over 69.1 innings.
The top free-agent hitters
| # | Hitter | Age | Last team | G | PA | HR | RBI | SB | AVG/OBP/SLG | OPS | QO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Seiya Suzuki (OF) | 32 | Chicago Cubs | 143 | 634 | 26 | 86 | 3 | .270/.368/.473 | .841 | Yes |
| 6 | Randy Arozarena (OF) | 32 | Seattle Mariners | 154 | 670 | 26 | 79 | 26 | .281/.381/.484 | .865 | Yes |
| 7 | Brandon Lowe (2B) | 32 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 150 | 656 | 35 | 96 | 2 | .260/.331/.493 | .824 | Yes |
| 11 | Jake Bauers (1B/OF) | 31 | Milwaukee Brewers | 144 | 578 | 26 | 86 | 11 | .266/.389/.484 | .873 | Yes |
| 12 | Luis Arraez (2B) | 30 | Philadelphia Phillies | 151 | 655 | 6 | 64 | 10 | .310/.345/.419 | .764 | No |
| 13 | Ryan Jeffers (C) | 30 | Minnesota Twins | 92 | 369 | 14 | 56 | 1 | .256/.353/.461 | .814 | Yes |
| 15 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2B) | 29 | NY Yankees | 137 | 532 | 19 | 55 | 41 | .231/.312/.399 | .711 | No |
| 20 | Ian Happ (LF) | 32 | Chicago Cubs | 156 | 636 | 24 | 68 | 4 | .218/.326/.412 | .738 | No |
| 21 | Gleyber Torres (2B) | 30 | Detroit Tigers | 96 | 420 | 8 | 38 | 0 | .260/.364/.363 | .727 | Ineligible |
| 27 | Ty France (1B) | 32 | San Diego Padres | 133 | 500 | 21 | 72 | 1 | .295/.363/.502 | .865 | No |
| 28 | Alec Bohm (1B/3B) | 30 | Philadelphia Phillies | 155 | 629 | 15 | 88 | 2 | .249/.315/.383 | .698 | No |
Seiya Suzuki hit .270/.368/.473 with 26 home runs over 634 plate appearances for the Cubs. He received a qualifying offer.
Randy Arozarena posted an .865 OPS for Seattle with 26 home runs and 26 steals. Per MLB.com, that was his second straight 25-homer, 25-steal season and his third All-Star selection in the past four years.
Brandon Lowe hit 35 home runs with 96 RBI for Pittsburgh. MLB.com ranks his defense in the 98th percentile, with 15 Outs Above Average.
Jake Bauers had a .389 on-base percentage and an .873 OPS in 144 games for Milwaukee. Per MLB.com, he was NLCS MVP as the Brewers won the World Series.
Luis Arraez hit .310 across 151 games for the Giants and then the Phillies, with 6 home runs. He did not receive a qualifying offer.
Ryan Jeffers played 92 games for Minnesota and posted an .814 OPS with 14 home runs. MLB.com says a broken left hamate bone sidelined him for nearly two months.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. stole 41 bases and hit 19 home runs for the Yankees. His OPS was .711.
Ty France hit .295 with 21 home runs and an .865 OPS in 133 games for San Diego. Per MLB.com, he played 2026 on a one-year, $1.35 million minor league contract with the Padres.
From Japan: Teruaki Sato and Kaima Taira
Both players were posted by their Japanese clubs, so neither has an MLB line or appears on MLB’s transactions list. Teruaki Sato, No. 4 on MLB.com’s list, was posted by the Hanshin Tigers. Per MLB.com, he was the 2025 Central League MVP and won the Central League Triple Crown in 2026.
Kaima Taira, No. 22, was posted by the Seibu Lions. MLB.com gives him a 1.36 ERA over 146 innings in 2026, with a WHIP under 1.000.
Qualifying offers
| Player | Pos. | Leaving | 2026 fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena | OF | Seattle Mariners | 5.5 |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4.9 |
| Seiya Suzuki | OF | Chicago Cubs | 4.5 |
| Trevor Rogers | LHP | Baltimore Orioles | 4.0 |
| Jake Bauers | 1B/OF | Milwaukee Brewers | 3.7 |
| Adrian Morejon | LHP | San Diego Padres | 2.8 |
| Ryan Jeffers | C | Minnesota Twins | 2.6 |
| David Bednar | RHP | NY Yankees | 1.9 |
The qualifying offer is one year at $23.15 million for 2027. Eight players received one, and they must decide by 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday 17 November. A player who accepts is signed for 2027 at that value. A player who declines stays a free agent, and if another team signs him, his old team gets Draft pick compensation. Per MLB.com, 18 players have accepted since 2012.
Two rules shut players out. A player must have been with one organization continuously from Opening Day to the end of the regular season, which made Skubal, Peralta, Casey Mize, Clay Holmes, Foster Griffin and others ineligible after their 2026 moves. A player who has received a qualifying offer before cannot get another one, which ruled out King, Gray, Shota Imanaga, Gleyber Torres, Kevin Gausman, Raisel Iglesias, Robbie Ray and Martinez.
Signings so far
Between 20 October and 9 November, MLB’s transactions show one major-league free-agent signing. Jacob Waguespack re-signed with the Tigers on a one-year deal on 2 November. The MLB.com tracker does not report the dollar terms.
Every player in the Top 30 is unsigned. 184 players elected free agency in that window, 143 of them on 29 October.
The calendar
The collective bargaining agreement expires on 1 December 2026, per MLB.com. Before the previous agreement expired five years ago, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Max Scherzer, Javier Baez, Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman all signed nine-figure deals before Thanksgiving, according to MLB.com. That is a record of that winter and is no forecast for this one.
The next fixed date is 17 November, when the eight qualifying-offer decisions are due. This page is updated as players sign and as the Kalshi price on Skubal moves from its 10 Nov reading of 40.5 cents for the Mets.
Sources: MLB Stats API transactions 20 Oct-9 Nov 2026, read 10 Nov 2026, 14:46 UTC; MLB Stats API 2026 regular-season stats and birth dates, read 10 Nov 2026, 14:48 UTC; MLB.com “Ranking the free agents for 2026-27 offseason”, “Qualifying offer candidates and decisions 2026-27” and “MLB Free Agents 2026-2027” tracker, each read 10 Nov 2026, 14:47 UTC; Kalshi market “Tarik Skubal Next Team” (KXMLBNEXTTEAM-27TSKUBAL), read 10 Nov 2026, 14:47 UTC.