2026 MLB MVP Odds and Predictions

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MLB MVP odds have already changed a lot since Opening Day, and the 2026 awards races are starting to separate into two very different betting conversations. The American League still runs through Aaron Judge, but Bobby Witt Jr. and Yordan Alvarez are close enough to keep the market interesting. The National League is a much tougher board to attack because Shohei Ohtani has moved from preseason favorite into heavy chalk before Memorial Day.

That makes this a much different article than it was in March. We are no longer working from preseason projections only. We now have almost two months of 2026 results, updated futures movement, team context, and enough player production to decide whether the favorites are worth laying or whether the best value sits behind them.

If you are betting this market alongside daily MLB picks, the key is understanding that MVP futures are not just about who is having the best week. Voters still care about elite production, team relevance, star power, health, and whether a player’s case can survive six full months of baseball.

Below, we’ll look at who won the awards last season, where the current AL and NL MVP markets stand, which favorites deserve attention, and which futures still offer enough value at this stage of the 2026 MLB season.

Who Won The American League MVP?

Aaron Judge won the 2025 American League MVP for the New York Yankees. It was another monster season from one of baseball’s most dangerous power bats, and he edged Cal Raleigh in a tighter race than some expected.

Judge’s case was easy to understand. He gave voters elite power, elite rate production, and the kind of offensive dominance that still plays in any awards room. The Yankees also gave him enough team-success support to make the argument feel complete.

That 2025 win matters for the current market because Judge is not just the favorite on reputation. He is the defending winner, still producing at an MVP level, and still carrying the cleanest AL narrative if New York stays in the postseason picture.

Who Won The National League MVP?

Shohei Ohtani won the 2025 National League MVP for the Los Angeles Dodgers. It was another historic season from baseball’s most unique player, and the voting reflected how far ahead of the field his overall profile had become.

Ohtani’s 2025 case combined elite power with two-way value, and that same formula is driving the 2026 market again. When he is hitting in the middle of a loaded Dodgers lineup and contributing on the mound, it becomes very difficult for any National League challenger to close the gap.

That is the biggest difference between the two leagues right now. The AL race has a favorite, but it still feels playable. The NL race has a favorite who is already being priced like voters may need something dramatic to happen before they seriously pivot.

MLB MVP Odds

The current 2026 MLB MVP odds show two clear favorites, but the value discussion is not the same in both leagues. For bettors comparing futures prices with the broader MLB odds market, the question is whether Judge and Ohtani are still bettable at shortened numbers or whether the better move is to look for challengers with a cleaner price.

The AL board is still the more attractive market. Judge deserves to be favored, but Witt and Alvarez are close enough to create real debate. If Judge’s number keeps shortening, the best betting angle may shift away from “who is most likely” and toward “who still has enough price to justify the risk.”

The NL board is much more top-heavy. Ohtani is the most likely winner by a wide margin, but laying a heavy minus price this early in the season is not always the best futures strategy. That is why the chase group matters, even if most of those players need both a big individual push and some Ohtani regression.

The top names still deserve most of the attention, but there are a few secondary options worth discussing if you want more leverage in either league.

For bettors who want deeper MLB futures perspective beyond the public board, the best handicappers page can help separate real betting value from names that are simply being priced on popularity.

AL MVP Odds

Aaron Judge (-120 to -130)

Judge is the correct AL MVP favorite. He is the defending winner, he remains one of the most feared hitters in baseball, and his power profile gives him the kind of counting-stat upside voters still reward. If the Yankees stay near the top of the American League picture, Judge will have a very clean path to another MVP.

The problem is not the player. The problem is the price. Once a futures number moves into minus territory this early, bettors need more than name value. Judge can absolutely win this award again, but the current price does not leave much room for injury risk, cold stretches, or a full-season push from Witt or Alvarez.

If you believe Judge is about to pull away, the bet is still defensible. If you are shopping for value, this number is no longer as attractive as it was before the season.

Bobby Witt Jr. (+450 to +500)

Bobby Witt Jr. is still the best AL value on the board. The Kansas City Royals shortstop brings the kind of all-around profile that can beat a slugger if the season stays close enough. He can build his case with power, speed, defense, WAR, and premium-position value.

That matters because Witt does not need to lead the league in home runs to make voters pay attention. If Kansas City stays relevant and he remains near the top of the league in overall value, he has a legitimate path to flipping this race. He is not a longshot anymore, but the price still gives bettors a better risk-reward profile than Judge.

The concern is simple: Judge’s offensive ceiling is still massive. Witt may need a clear team-success edge or a full-season WAR gap to overcome the Yankees star if both players stay healthy.

Yordan Alvarez (+500 to +550)

Yordan Alvarez is the most dangerous pure bat in the AL chase group. The Houston Astros slugger has the offensive ceiling to pressure Judge if he keeps producing at an elite rate and Houston remains in the playoff mix.

The challenge is profile. Alvarez usually has to win with the bat, while Witt adds speed and shortstop defense to his case. That means Alvarez likely needs loud numbers: elite OPS, big home run production, strong run production, and a team that gives voters a reason to keep him near the top of the ballot.

At around +500, he is playable but not quite as strong as Witt. The bat is good enough to win, but the margin for error is smaller.

Ben Rice (+1900)

Ben Rice is one of the more interesting movers in the AL market because his early offensive production has forced sportsbooks to take him seriously. The issue is that he shares a team with Judge, which makes the voter path much harder unless Rice clearly becomes the biggest story in New York.

That does not make him a bad futures ticket. It just makes him more fragile than the price suggests. If Judge stays healthy and keeps producing, Rice may have trouble becoming the top MVP candidate on his own roster.

Nick Kurtz (+2000)

Nick Kurtz is the upside swing in this AL race. The Athletics first baseman has enough power to stay relevant if the breakout continues, and his number is long enough to interest bettors who do not want to chase the favorites.

The problem is that first basemen usually need overwhelming offensive production to win MVP. Kurtz also needs enough team relevance to keep his case from becoming a fun statistical story rather than a real awards push.

Bet: Bobby Witt Jr. (+450 to +500)

NL MVP Odds

Shohei Ohtani (-350 to -450)

Ohtani is the most likely MVP winner in either league. His two-way profile gives him a built-in edge that no other National League player can fully match, and the Dodgers’ team context only strengthens the case.

The market has already adjusted hard. Ohtani is not being priced as a normal favorite anymore. He is being priced like a player who may need to lose the award more than someone else needs to win it. That is fair based on talent, but it creates a tough betting decision.

If you already have an Ohtani ticket from before the season, you are sitting in a great position. If you are entering now, the question is whether you want to tie up futures money at a heavy minus price before the season even reaches the halfway point.

Kyle Schwarber (+1400)

Kyle Schwarber is the best non-Ohtani value in the NL market right now. The Philadelphia Phillies slugger has the one skill that can create a loud MVP case quickly: home run power that can separate from the field.

Schwarber does not have Ohtani’s all-around value, so his path is narrower. He likely needs to lead or seriously challenge for the NL home run lead, drive in a pile of runs, and help keep Philadelphia in the top tier of the National League standings.

At +1400, though, the number at least makes sense. If you are trying to beat Ohtani, you need a player with a category that can become impossible to ignore. Schwarber’s power gives him that.

Matt Olson (+1600)

Matt Olson is another legitimate power-based challenger. The Atlanta Braves have been one of the strongest teams in the National League, and Olson’s run-production profile gives him a cleaner MVP path if Atlanta keeps stacking wins.

The betting case is not complicated. Olson needs a huge home run season, strong RBI volume, and enough team success to make voters look past Ohtani’s two-way edge. That is a tough ask, but not impossible at this price.

He is a better value than most of the deeper longshots, but Schwarber’s shorter number still feels slightly more connected to the current market movement.

Bryce Harper (+2200)

Bryce Harper is always dangerous in this market because voters already know what an MVP version of Harper looks like. He has the name value, the postseason-team context, and the offensive ceiling to get hot and make a push.

The issue is whether he can separate from Schwarber on his own team while also chasing Ohtani. That is a difficult two-part path. Harper is a live longshot, but he needs a major surge before the number becomes more than a speculative play.

Elly De La Cruz (+2500)

Elly De La Cruz is the most explosive longshot on the NL board. The Cincinnati Reds shortstop can do things that very few players in baseball can match, and that gives him a different kind of MVP ceiling.

His path requires volume and consistency. The tools are loud enough, but he needs the full-season production to match the highlight-reel moments. He also needs Cincinnati to stay relevant enough that voters do not dismiss his case as a great season on a team outside the main race.

At +2500, De La Cruz is not a bad lottery ticket. He is just not the best value because Ohtani’s lead is already so strong and the NL chase group has power bats with cleaner current cases.

Bet: Kyle Schwarber (+1400)

MLB MVP Betting Value

The best overall value in the 2026 MLB MVP market is Bobby Witt Jr. in the American League. Judge is still the most likely AL winner, but Witt’s number gives bettors a better combination of upside, role, and market position.

Witt can win this award in more than one way. He can do it with WAR, defense, speed, extra-base impact, and a Royals team that continues to push into the AL playoff conversation. That versatility matters in a long futures market because it gives him more ways to stay relevant even if he is not leading one traditional category.

In the NL, the better value is Schwarber, but the stronger prediction is still Ohtani. That is the uncomfortable part of the National League board. Ohtani is the best player and the clear favorite, but the price is already so short that value bettors need to decide whether they are willing to take a longer shot instead.

For broader MLB futures strategy, the Expert Betting Guide is the more natural supporting read here because this market is less about daily form and more about price discipline, timing, and knowing when a favorite has become too expensive.

MLB MVP Predictions

The AL prediction is Bobby Witt Jr. at plus money. Judge is the safer answer, but Witt is the better bet. If Kansas City stays competitive and Witt remains near the top of the league in overall value, voters will have a real alternative to simply handing Judge another MVP.

The NL prediction is Shohei Ohtani, even though the betting value is not great. Sometimes the board is telling the truth, and this looks like one of those spots. Ohtani’s two-way value gives him a much bigger cushion than any other player in the league.

That creates two different betting approaches. In the AL, take the value with Witt. In the NL, either accept the heavy favorite with Ohtani or take a smaller speculative swing on Schwarber if you want plus-money leverage.

AL MVP Bet: Bobby Witt Jr. (+450 to +500)

NL MVP Bet: Kyle Schwarber (+1400)

MLB MVP Winners

The following is a list of the most recent MLB MVP winners:

The recent winners table shows why the current market is priced the way it is. Judge and Ohtani have dominated this award conversation for years, and both remain at the center of the 2026 board. That does not mean there is no value elsewhere, but it does mean any challenger needs a full-season case strong enough to beat established MVP names.