MLB Reliever of the Year Odds and Predictions 2026: Varland and Miller Lead

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MLB Reliever of the Year Odds and Predictions feature Louis Varland as the American League favorite and Mason Miller as the clear National League frontrunner. Varland has combined a near-1.00 ERA with 74 strikeouts and a perfect record across his 24 save opportunities, while Miller owns a 0.76 ERA, 88 strikeouts and 28 saves.

Varland remains our AL winner prediction, but Tampa Bay closer Bryan Baker offers the best betting value. Baker leads MLB with 32 saves, owns a 1.42 ERA and remains available at a much larger price than Varland, Cade Smith or Jacob Latz.

Miller is still the strongest prediction in either league despite suffering his first blown save of the season on August 2. Jhoan Duran is the preferred NL alternative at +550 or better, while Trevor Megill offers an appealing secondary option for bettors expecting Milwaukee to continue generating late-inning opportunities.

MLB Reliever of the Year Odds and Predictions Update

The latest MLB Reliever of the Year Odds and Predictions continue to favor Varland and Miller, but the statistical races have become more competitive. Baker and Smith have created substantial save advantages over Varland, while Duran remains close enough to challenge Miller in the National League.

Odds last checked: August 6, 2026. The most recent widely posted award market was dated July 28. Prices and availability can change when sportsbooks refresh the board.

Varland deserves to lead the AL market because his résumé extends beyond ninth-inning volume. His ERA, strikeout total, workload and perfect save conversion rate give him the strongest complete performance among the leading candidates.

Baker creates the most interesting pricing disagreement. The Tampa Bay closer leads the majors with 32 saves, has allowed only seven earned runs and pitches for the team with the best record in the American League, yet he remains available near +2000.

Miller remains the most likely winner of either award. His strikeout rate is far beyond every traditional closer in the race, and one blown save does not erase four months of historically dominant run prevention.

Bettors can compare current futures with daily bullpen matchups, moneylines and totals through the ScoresAndStats MLB odds page.

How the Reliever of the Year Awards Work

Major League Baseball presents one Reliever of the Year Award in each league. The American League honor is named after Mariano Rivera, while the National League award is named after Trevor Hoffman.

The awards are separate from the BBWAA honors used for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year. A panel of accomplished former relievers evaluates the candidates and ranks the top three pitchers in each league.

Saves remain important because they measure successful ninth-inning opportunities, but they do not decide the award automatically. Voters can also consider ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, workload, inherited runners, blown saves and overall performance in high-leverage situations.

This distinction helps Varland and Miller. Neither pitcher leads the majors in saves, but both have produced stronger overall run prevention and strikeout profiles than many closers with more ninth-inning volume.

The complete list of previous recipients is available through the official MLB Reliever of the Year awards page.

Current MLB Saves Leaders

Baker leads MLB with 32 saves through games completed on August 5. Smith follows with 30, while Miller has 28 and Aroldis Chapman has 27.

The leaderboard explains why the American League race remains unsettled. Varland has the best complete performance, but Baker owns an eight-save advantage and Smith has six more saves without sacrificing elite strikeout production.

The National League has a clearer hierarchy. Miller leads Duran by three saves while also owning a substantially better ERA, WHIP and strikeout total.

AL Reliever of the Year Odds 2026

The AL Reliever of the Year Odds are led by Varland at approximately +100. Smith and Latz form the next tier, while Grant Taylor, Chapman, Josh Hader, Baker and David Bednar remain available at larger prices.

The market continues to prioritize Varland’s overall value over the traditional saves leaderboard. That position is reasonable, but it creates playable alternatives for bettors who believe save volume will carry more weight during the final voting.

Louis Varland Reliever of the Year Prediction

Varland remains our prediction to win the Mariano Rivera American League Reliever of the Year Award. His 1.09 ERA, 74 strikeouts and 24 saves create the most complete AL résumé.

The Toronto closer has converted every save opportunity and allowed only one home run across 57 2/3 innings. That combination of strikeouts, command and home run prevention separates him from closers relying primarily on volume.

Varland also leads the primary AL candidates in overall value. His ability to record more than three outs when necessary adds innings and leverage that are not captured by the save total alone.

The concern is Toronto’s position in the standings. The Blue Jays are well behind Tampa Bay, New York and Boston in the AL East, reducing the number of meaningful save opportunities Varland may receive during August and September.

Baker already has eight more saves, while Smith has six more. Varland must remain nearly flawless if those two closers continue receiving steady ninth-inning work.

ScoresAndStats AL Prediction: Louis Varland wins Reliever of the Year.

Betting Decision: Playable at +100 or better, but the save deficit prevents this from becoming a large favorite position.

Cade Smith Remains a Serious AL Challenger

Smith remains the strongest direct challenger to Varland at +600. The Cleveland closer has 30 saves, 73 strikeouts and a 12.55 K/9 rate.

His strikeout total is only one behind Varland despite throwing fewer innings. That gives Smith a stronger dominance argument than Baker, Chapman or Latz.

The weakness is run prevention. Smith’s 2.41 ERA and 1.13 WHIP are respectable for a closer, but both numbers are clearly behind Varland and Baker.

Smith has also allowed four home runs and failed in multiple save situations. Those mistakes create a visible difference when voters compare him with Varland’s perfect conversion record.

The +600 price remains useful because Smith can build a traditional winning résumé. A finish with more than 40 saves and approximately 100 strikeouts would create a strong case even if Varland maintains the better ERA.

Best Direct AL Challenger: Cade Smith at +600 or better.

Bryan Baker Offers the Best AL Reliever Value

Baker is the best value in the entire AL market at +2000 or better. He leads MLB with 32 saves while posting a 1.42 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and .192 batting average allowed.

The Tampa Bay closer has also benefited from his team’s position. The Rays lead the AL East and have continued producing close games with meaningful ninth-inning opportunities.

Baker’s statistical profile is stronger than a typical saves-only candidate. He has allowed only 22 hits and two home runs through 44 1/3 innings.

The main weakness is strikeout dominance. Baker has 48 strikeouts, compared with 74 for Varland and 73 for Smith. His 9.74 K/9 is strong but not exceptional by the standards of this award field.

The price compensates for that limitation. Baker is available at more than three times Smith’s payout despite owning two more saves, a significantly lower ERA and a better WHIP.

Our Best AL Value Pick: Bryan Baker at +2000 or better.

Winning Path: Lead MLB in saves, remain below a 2.00 ERA and help Tampa Bay win the AL East.

Other AL Reliever of the Year Contenders

Latz, Taylor, Chapman and Hader remain capable of entering the final conversation, but each needs either a larger statistical finish or regression from the top three candidates.

Jacob Latz at +650

Latz owns a 1.94 ERA and an exceptional 0.71 WHIP through 51 innings. He has allowed only 24 hits and 12 walks while converting 21 saves.

The Texas left-hander offers better ratios than Smith, but he lacks the save volume and strikeout total of the leading candidates. A +650 price is difficult to justify when Baker is available at a substantially larger number.

Grant Taylor at +1200

Taylor is the most interesting nontraditional AL candidate because his strikeout rate and overall value compare favorably with established closers. His path depends on receiving more ninth-inning work for the White Sox.

A setup reliever can win this award, but Taylor probably needs a larger workload and a clearer closing role during the final two months.

Aroldis Chapman at +1500

Chapman remains relevant as the defending AL winner. He has 27 saves, a 1.67 ERA and 50 strikeouts for a Boston team positioned to remain in the postseason race.

His 17 walks and 1.19 WHIP create more traffic than Varland, Baker or Latz. Chapman needs another dominant closing stretch and continued save volume to move back into the top tier.

Josh Hader at +1900

Hader has a 1.13 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 35 strikeouts in 24 innings. His performance remains award quality, but 15 saves leave him too far behind the leading closers.

Houston must generate significantly more save opportunities for Hader to overcome Varland, Smith, Baker and Chapman.

NL Reliever of the Year Odds 2026

The NL Reliever of the Year Odds remain dominated by Miller at approximately -150. Duran is the clear second choice, followed by Adrián Morejón, Megill, Dylan Lee, Tanner Scott and Raisel Iglesias.

The NL market is less competitive because Miller leads nearly every category that matters. Duran can challenge through saves, command and a strong Philadelphia finish, but he needs Miller to regress during August and September.

Mason Miller Reliever of the Year Prediction

Miller remains our prediction to win the Trevor Hoffman National League Reliever of the Year Award. He has recorded 28 saves with a 0.76 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 88 strikeouts through 47 1/3 innings.

His 16.73 K/9 and 49.2 percent strikeout rate are far beyond the numbers produced by the other traditional closers. Miller has also avoided allowing a home run throughout the season.

Miller suffered his first blown save on August 2 after entering with inherited runners on base. The result ended a streak of 30 consecutive converted save opportunities dating to 2025, but it did not materially weaken his run-prevention statistics.

San Diego’s decision to retain Miller through the trade deadline also removed the largest uncertainty from the previous update. His league, team and ninth-inning role remain unchanged.

The current -150 price is shorter than ideal, but Miller has built enough separation to justify odds-on favorite status. Duran needs to close the save gap while also hoping Miller allows more runs or misses time.

Miller’s dominance has even created a secondary argument in the broader MLB Cy Young odds and predictions discussion, although the reliever award remains his most realistic individual honor.

ScoresAndStats NL Prediction: Mason Miller wins Reliever of the Year.

Betting Decision: Playable at -150 or better, but avoid chasing the number beyond -180.

Jhoan Duran Offers the Best NL Reliever Value

Duran is the best NL alternative at +550 or better because he has 25 saves, a 1.88 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 38 1/3 innings.

His command creates the clearest statistical advantage over Miller. Duran has issued only six walks, producing an exceptional 9.33 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Philadelphia should continue creating meaningful save opportunities during the postseason race. A strong Phillies finish could help Duran reach the mid-to-high 30s in saves.

The problem is that remaining excellent may not be enough. Duran trails Miller in saves, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and opponent power allowed.

Duran needs Miller to produce several ordinary outings or miss time. The +550 price compensates for that dependence without requiring an impossible statistical comeback.

Our Best NL Value Pick: Jhoan Duran at +550 or better.

Other NL Reliever of the Year Contenders

Morejón, Megill, Lee, Scott and Iglesias remain available, but each has a clear obstacle that Miller and Duran do not share.

Adrián Morejón at +800

Morejón has provided valuable multi-inning and high-leverage work for San Diego. His flexibility strengthens the Padres bullpen but weakens his individual award profile because Miller controls most traditional save opportunities.

A +800 price is too short for a reliever sharing a bullpen with the clear award favorite.

Trevor Megill at +900

Megill offers the best secondary NL value. He has 20 saves, a 2.72 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 50 strikeouts for the team with the best record in baseball.

Milwaukee should continue creating late-inning opportunities, but Megill needs to reduce the eight-save gap and finish with stronger run prevention than his current ERA suggests.

Best Secondary NL Value: Trevor Megill at +900 or better.

Dylan Lee at +1200

Lee represents the nontraditional path to the award. His case depends on voters rewarding high-leverage dominance without requiring a large save total.

That path is possible, as Devin Williams won the 2020 NL award without working as a full-season closer. The current field is more difficult because Miller combines historical dominance with substantial save volume.

Tanner Scott at +1800

Scott has 16 saves, a 2.38 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 59 strikeouts for the Dodgers. His ratios and strikeout production are strong enough to keep him in the conversation.

Los Angeles’ flexible bullpen usage limits his value. Scott needs a more consistent ninth-inning role before the +1800 price becomes a serious award position.

Raisel Iglesias at +1900

Iglesias has 24 saves for an Atlanta team positioned to win the NL East. His 2.63 ERA and 44 strikeouts are solid but not strong enough to overcome Miller without a nearly perfect finish.

Saves Versus Overall Reliever Dominance

Saves remain the easiest statistic for evaluating closers, but the Reliever of the Year awards do not always go to the league leader. A pitcher can overcome a save deficit through a dominant ERA, strikeout rate, workload and performance in higher-leverage situations.

Varland is the clearest 2026 example. He trails Baker and Smith in saves but owns better run prevention than Smith and substantially more strikeouts than Baker.

Miller does not require the same argument because his 28 saves already place him near the top of the National League. His historic strikeout production simply creates additional separation.

The best betting approach is to separate the most likely winner from the best price. Varland may have the strongest AL résumé, but Baker offers more value at the available odds. Miller is both the strongest NL candidate and the shortest-priced reliever in either league.

How the Reliever of the Year Market Has Changed

The preseason Reliever of the Year market looked completely different. Chapman and Edwin Díaz opened among the favorites after winning the 2025 awards, while Andrés Muñoz and Duran were prominent preseason value options.

Varland produced the largest American League rise. He moved from outside the leading preseason group to an even-money favorite after taking control of Toronto’s closing role.

Miller created the most dramatic overall move. He opened as a plus-money upside selection and became a -150 favorite by combining elite save production with one of the highest strikeout rates ever recorded by a closer.

Muñoz moved in the opposite direction. His 3.89 ERA, 20 saves and five home runs allowed have removed him from the leading AL group.

Duran remains a viable original value position. He has shortened from approximately +600 to +550 while maintaining a realistic path behind Miller.

Previous Reliever of the Year Picks

The previous ScoresAndStats update selected Varland and Miller as the final winner predictions. Smith was the preferred AL value, Baker was the AL longshot and Duran remained the top NL alternative.

The Varland prediction remains intact, but the value assessment has changed. Baker has increased his save total from 26 to 32 while maintaining elite ratios, making his +2000 price more attractive than Smith at +600.

Miller has strengthened his position statistically despite recording his first blown save. He now has 28 saves and 88 strikeouts, and the trade deadline passed without changing his role or league.

Duran remains the best NL protection against a Miller injury or late-season decline. The previous +400 number was stronger, but +550 offers a larger payout following Miller’s continued market separation.

Recent MLB Reliever of the Year Winners

Chapman and Edwin Díaz won the 2025 awards. Emmanuel Clase won the AL honor in both 2022 and 2024, while Devin Williams and Josh Hader have combined for five NL victories since 2018.

The recent winners demonstrate that the award can recognize different bullpen profiles. Helsley won through elite save volume, while Williams and Hader earned recognition through strikeouts, ratios and flexible high-leverage usage.

Final MLB Reliever of the Year Odds and Predictions

Varland remains our final American League prediction. His combination of a 1.09 ERA, 74 strikeouts, extended workload and perfect save conversion record gives him the strongest complete case.

Baker is the best AL wager at the current prices. The MLB saves leader is available near +2000 despite owning a 1.42 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and a steady role for the AL-leading Rays.

Smith is the primary statistical challenger. His combination of 30 saves and 73 strikeouts gives him a cleaner traditional award path than most candidates, but his ERA and WHIP remain behind Varland and Baker.

Miller is the final National League prediction. His 0.76 ERA, 88 strikeouts and 28 saves create the strongest reliever résumé in baseball.

Duran remains the best NL value at +550 or better. Megill offers the best secondary option for bettors expecting Milwaukee to continue producing save opportunities during the race for the National League’s top seed.

Daily pitcher props, bullpen matchups and game predictions are available through the ScoresAndStats MLB picks page. The postseason outlook for the leading relievers’ teams is covered in the updated World Series odds and predictions.

ScoresAndStats AL Reliever of the Year Pick: Louis Varland at +100 or better.

ScoresAndStats NL Reliever of the Year Pick: Mason Miller at -150 or better.

Our Best Overall Value Pick: Bryan Baker at +2000 or better.

MLB Reliever of the Year FAQs