2025 Brickyard 400 Odds and Predictions

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On Sunday, July 27, the NASCAR Cup Series makes its annual trip to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the Brickyard 400. This hallowed racetrack will host its second Cup race since returning to the calendar last year after using the road course from 2021 to 2023.

Sunday’s race also marks the 22nd race of the season, which means there are just five races left until the NASCAR Playoffs begin. This weekend’s race also marks the final round of the In-Season Challenge. Ty Gibbs and Ty Dillon will battle it out for the $1 million dollar purse.  

Kyle Larson is the reigning race winner. However, he comes in second behind Denny Hamlin with the sportsbooks. Hamlin, who won last weekend at Dover Motor Speedway, is the pre-race favorite. On their bumpers are Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott and William Byron. It’s almost an exact duplicate of last week’s betting boards for Dover.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR Brickyard 400 odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Brickyard 400 predictions for this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series event at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. You can also compare my picks with the best handicappers.

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Brickyard 400 Race Profile

After decades of watching other Motorsport Series racing at the famous Indianapolis Motor Speedway (IMS), NASCAR decided to finally put its stamp on this track with an annual race called the Brickyard 400. The inaugural race started in 1994 and ran until 2020.

From 2021 to 2023, NASCAR decided to do a combined road course race at IMS instead of the traditional Brickyard 400. Finally, the sport came to its senses and brought back a race that fans have enjoyed since the 90s and have affectionately considered one of the sport’s crown jewel races.

The Indianapolis Motor Speedway is an asphalt track with a lap length of 2.5 miles and four turns.

Sunday’s Brickyard 400 race breaks down as follows:

  • Total Miles: 400 miles
  • Total Laps: 160 laps
  • Stage 1: 50 laps
  • Stage 2: 50 laps
  • Final Stage: 60 laps

The Brickyard 400 is set to begin at 2pm ET and will air live on TNT and stream on HBO MAX.

Previous Brickyard 400 Winners

Jeff Gordon holds the record for most Cup Series statistical categories like wins (5), Top 5s (12), Top 10s (17), and most starts (23) at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Jimmie Johnson finished with the second most IMS wins (4). Of active drivers, only Kyle Busch (2), Brad Keselowski (1) and Kyle Larson (1) have a victory at this speedway.

The following is a list of recent winners:

  • 2024: Kyle Larson
  • 2020: Kevin Harvick
  • 2019: Kevin Harvick
  • 2018: Brad Keselowski
  • 2017: Kasey Kahne
  • 2016: Kyle Busch
  • 2015: Kyle Busch
  • 2014: Jeff Gordon

Considering that Gordon and Johnson combined for nine wins, it should come as no surprise that Chevrolet holds the record for most wins with 18. Ford is a distant second with nine.

It should also come as no surprise that Hendrick Motorsports, the team of Gordon and Johnson, holds the record for most wins at 11. Joe Gibbs Racing is second with five.  

Brickyard 400 Odds

Check out the latest Brickyard 400 odds:

NASCAR OddsNASCAR Odds
Denny Hamlin +400Kyle Larson +500
Ryan Blaney +600Chase Elliott +900
William Byron +1000Tyler Reddick +1000
Chase Briscoe +1000Christopher Bell +1000
Chris Buescher +1200Ty Gibbs +1800  
Brad Keselowski +2200Joey Logano +2200
Carson Hocevar +2800Bubba Wallace +3500
Alex Bowman +3500Kyle Busch +4000
Josh Berry +5000Ross Chastain +5000
Austin Cindric +8000Ty Dillon +50000

Brickyard 400 Favorites

The following drivers are considered by oddsmakers to be the odds-on favorites to win the Brickyard 400:

Denny Hamlin +400         

  • Standings: 4
  • Win: 4
  • Top 5: 10
  • Top 10: 11

As mentioned above, Denny Hamlin held of the field to win at Dover last weekend. It was his second consecutive win at that track and his 4th victory on the season which leads the Cup Series.

However, in 16 IMS starts, Hamlin has not won at this track. Yet, he does have five Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and a 14.6 average finish. Unfortunately, Hamlin has crashed out of the last two Brickyard 400 races.

For a driver that’s listed as the pre-race favorite, I’m not sold on his odds or chances. I think he will be lucky to crack the Top 10 considering his last two appearances have been DNFs.

Kyle Larson +500

  • Standings: 3
  • Win: 3
  • Top 5: 10
  • Top 10: 13

Kyle Larson also has two crashes in seven IMS starts, but he did win last year. And, he sports two Top 5s along with four Top 10s and a 13.9 average finish at this track. He’s also led laps in the last two Brickyard 400 races.

I had Larson pegged to win last weekend in Dover. He finished firmly in the Top 5 but was unable to challenge Hamlin for the win.

This weekend, I think Larson is a contender for the checkered flag. I like his chances better than the #11 car.

Ryan Blaney +600

  • Standings: 7
  • Win: 1
  • Top 5: 7
  • Top 10: 9

Ryan Blaney finished 3rd in last year’s race at Indy. However, he only has one Top 5 and two Top 10s in seven starts. In fact, he has three DNFs and a 17.7 average finish.

Blaney’s odds are overvalued here as he’s not the best driver at this track and shouldn’t be ranked this high. The #12 car is a Top 10 driver at best this weekend. But those odds (-280) offer no value.

I would fade Blaney this week as he’s not a real contender to win, and his Top 10 odds are too risky for a driver that has three DNFs in seven starts.

Chase Elliott +900

  • Standings: 1
  • Win: 1
  • Top 5: 7
  • Top 10: 12

Chase Elliott is another driver that I am high on this weekend at Indy. I was high on him for Dover last week and he didn’t let me down.

In seven starts, he has two Top 10s and a 16.7 average finish. However, Elliott has four consecutive Top 15 results and a 10.0 average finish over the last three Brickyard 400 races. He was 10th in this race last year.

This week, I expect the #9 car to be a contender for the checkered flag and firmly finish inside the Top 10. Elliott is on a roll as he just overtook William Byron for the top spot in the driver standings. His consistency has been key to that accomplishment, so I expect that to continue on Sunday.

William Byron +1000       

  • Standings: 2
  • Win: 1
  • Top 5: 7
  • Top 10: 11

Speaking of Byron, he scored another DNF on the season last week in Dover. Byron is going through a rough patch and needs to turn things around before the Playoffs begin.

Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening this weekend. Byron has one Top 5 and one Top 10 in four IMS starts. That result came in 2019, when he finished 4th. Otherwise, he has two consecutive finishes of 27th or worse and a DNF in last year’s race.

That fits with his current trend of three DNFs in the last four Cup Series races on the season. In fact, he has five finishes of 27th or worse in the last seven Cup races. Fade Byron until he turns things around on the season by breaking this slump.

Tyler Reddick +1000

  • Standings: 5
  • Win: 0
  • Top 5: 5
  • Top 10: 8

If I had to label one driver as “the man to beat,” it would be Tyler Reddick. In two Indy starts, he has a 5.0 average finish which leads the field. He finished 8th in 2020, and was runner up last year after starting on the pole and leading 40 laps.

For the season, Reddick has yet to win. However, this could be the week that he gets his first checkered flag of the year. The #45 car is heating up with a 6.25 average finish over the last four weeks and moving up to 5th in the standings.

I think Reddick will be a major factor in the outcome of this race and his odds provide far better value than any of the other pre-race betting favorites.

The Best Brickyard 400 Betting Value

The following drivers are my NASCAR picks for the best betting value in the Brickyard 400 based on their previous success at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway:

Bubba Wallace +3500

  • Standings: 13
  • Win: 0
  • Top 5: 3
  • Top 10: 7

If the Playoffs were to start this weekend, Bubba Wallace would make it. The #23 car sits 13th in the standings and comes to a track where he’s fared well at.

In four IMS starts, Wallace has two Top 5s, three Top 10s, and a 13.8 average finish. He crashed out of his first appearance at this track, but has finished in the Top 10 the last three starts. In fact, he has a 5.33 average finish in his last three IMS starts. Wallace finished 5th in this race last year.

With the pressure intensifying for drivers to make the Playoffs, now is the time to rack up wins or Top 10 results. Wallace might not win this race but I love his Top 10 odds of +200 as they provide fantastic value.

Kyle Busch +4000

  • Standings: 15
  • Win: 0
  • Top 5: 2
  • Top 10: 7  

Kyle Busch is barely on the right side of the cut-off line.  So, it’s going to take some solid results to make the Playoffs this year and he needs to start that this weekend. Otherwise, Busch could be looking at missing out on the postseason just like he did last year.

In 17 IMS starts, Busch has two wins, five Top 5s, 12 Top 10s, and a 12.8 average finish. Like with Wallace, I like Busch’s Top 10 odds at +220. I think they offer better value for a more realistic finish than a race win.

Busch is very capable of pulling out something special at Indy this weekend, but he has not won a race the last two seasons.

Play it safe with Busch by taking the value on a Top 10 finish.

The Top Brickyard 400 Longshot

Austin Cindric +8000 is my longshot pick for Indy this weekend. He made his first Cup start at this track last year, and finished 7th. It was a solid result for the third, and often forgotten, driver at Team Penske.

Cindric often performs well on the bigger speedways. For example, he finished 8th at Daytona and won at Talladega this season. So, he’s certainly suited for this larger oval track.

With that said, I also prefer his +400 Top 10 odds than a race win. However, you risk takers out there could take a flier on both options.

Brickyard 400 Predictions

There’s a host of drivers that could sneak into the Top 5 this weekend. But the three men that I think have the best shot at winning are Larson, Elliott and Reddick.

I would love to pick Larson again, but I don’t want to be accused of being a homer since he’s my favorite driver and from near my hometown. Additionally, I am feeling good about Reddick’s chances this weekend. He was runner up to Larson last year and has a 5.0 average finish at this track.

There’s no dominant driver at this venue since Kevin Harvick retired. So, let’s go with Reddick as his odds offer value and he’s performed well at Indy.

Bet: Tyler Reddick (+1000)

NASCAR Brickyard 400 Prop Bets

Check out our breakdown of the following Brickyard 400 prop bets:

Either To Finish In The Top 3 at IMS

As you can see from above, I’m really high on both Reddick and Larson. I had a hard time picking which driver will win this race. In the end, I went with Reddick due to his solid Indy resume and his last month of racing on the season.

However, Larson could just as easily repeat as the Brickyard 400 winner. The two drivers finished 1-2 last year and I think they could do that again this weekend.

Bet: Kyle Larson or Tyler Reddick (-150)

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Brickyard 400

I’m taking Kyle Larson (-110) for this prop bet. He is the defending race winner and is starting to heat up on the season. I think we get a strong showing from the #5 car this weekend which could put him in victory lane. Either way, he’s as safe as they come to finish in the Top 5 on Sunday.

Bet: Kyle Larson (-110)

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Brickyard 400

I alluded to this above, but I really like Bubba Wallace to crack the Top 10 (+200) on Sunday. He finished 7th last weekend in Dover and showed that he’s ready to make a push for the Playoffs.

Additionally, he has three straight Top 9 finishes in this race along with a 5th in last year’s edition. A 5.33 average finish in his last three Brickyard 400 starts has me feeling great about his chances to score a Top 10 on Sunday. You can also take a look at Kyle Busch (+220) for another Top 10 result.

Bet: Bubba Wallace (+200)

Winning Manufacturer

  • Toyota (+140)
  • Chevrolet (+150)
  • Ford (+250)

Toyota has the edge in this one. And, it’s hard to argue against that with the way Hamlin is driving and my affinity for Reddick this weekend. Plus, I think Wallace could also finish in the Top 10 and flirt with a Top 5 result.

Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing are the top two Toyota teams and they have several drivers that are very capable of winning this weekend.

Bet: Toyota (+140)

Team of Race Winner

  • Hendrick Motorsports (+175)
  • Joe Gibbs Racing (+175)
  • Team Penske (+550)
  • RFK Racing (+700)
  • 23XI Racing (+800)
  • Spire Motorsports (+2500)
  • Trackhouse Racing (+3300)
  • Richard Childress Racing (+4000)
  • Legacy Motor Club (+4000)

Since I took JGR in the prop bet above, and 23XI Racing’s Reddick to win the race, I’m taking Hendrick Motorsports for this prop bet. Hendrick has won 11 Brickyard 400 races and has the defending winner in Kyle Larson. He, along with Elliott, are two of my Top 5 drivers this weekend.

Bet: Hendrick Motorsports (+175)

Winning Car Number

  • Over 12.5 (+100)
  • Under 12.5 (-130)

For me, this is a no brainer. I am taking the Under for a second straight week. We nailed it last weekend when Hamlin won the race. Although I like Reddick’s chances this Sunday, I think there are more options with the Under to cover our bases.

With the under, we’ll get: Hamlin, Elliott and Larson. We’ll also get Blaney, Busch, Cindric, Keselowski and Chastain. We’re pretty much getting most of the favorites and a few value bets as well as the longshot.

I think it makes more sense to hedge our race-winning pick of Reddick with the Under 12.5 option in this prop bet.

Bet: Under 12.5 (-130)