2025 Bristol NASCAR Food City 500 Odds and Predictions

On Sunday, April 13, NASCAR’s Cup Series will head to Bristol Motor Speedway for the Food City 500. This is the first of two annual trips to Bristol, with the second one coming in the fall – Bass Pro Shops Night Race.

Nicknamed “Thunder Valley,” Bristol Motor Speedway is an iconic short track that’s been on the NASCAR calendar since 1961, for both annual races.

Denny Hamlin is the defending race winner of the Food City 500. He’s also won two straight Cup Series races on the season. On March 30, Hamlin picked up his first win of the season by dominating the Cook Out 400 at Martinsville. He followed that up with another win at Darlington in the Goodyear 400.

Hamlin enters this weekend’s race as the co-betting favorite along with Kyle Larson. Joining those two drivers in the Top 5 betting odds are Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR Bristol odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Food City 500 predictions for this weekend’s Bristol NASCAR Cup Series race.

Food City 500 Race Profile

NASCAR’s Cup Series has competed in two annual Bristol races each year since 1961. The first was typically held in the spring, with the second in the fall and at night.

From 1961 to 1992, the Cup Series ran on the old asphalt surface. Then, from 1993 to 2020, they ran on the concrete surface. From 2021-2023, the Cup Series used Bristol’s dirt track to change things up. Last year, NASCAR decided to return to the traditional concrete oval for both races.

Bristol Motor Speedway is a short oval track, with four turns at banking of 24 to 28 degrees, two straights with banking of 4 to 8 degrees, and a lap length of 0.533 miles.

Sunday’s Food City 500 breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 266.5 miles
• Total Laps: 500 laps
• Stage 1: 125 laps
• Stage 2: 125 laps
• Final Stage: 250 laps

The Food City 500 can be seen live on FS1 beginning at 3pm ET.

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Previous Food City 500 Winners

Rusty Wallace holds the record for most wins in this spring Bristol race with six. There are three drivers tied for second with five wins apiece in Darrell Waltrip, Dale Earnhart and Kyle Busch.

The following is a list of the most recent winners:

• 2024: Denny Hamlin
• 2023: Christopher Bell
• 2022: Kyle Busch
• 2021: Joey Logano
• 2020: Brad Keselowski
• 2019: Kyle Busch
• 2018: Kyle Busch
• 2017: Jimmie Johnson
• 2016: Carl Edwards
• 2015: Matt Kenseth

Chevrolet holds the lead with 23 wins, but Ford is close behind at 18 victories. Toyota has seven wins including three in row, when the Cup Series raced on the dirt surface as well.

Hendrick Motorsports has eight wins to lead all race teams. However, if you include the dirt track results then Joe Gibbs Racing has nine wins and Team Penske has eight wins.

Food City 500 Odds

Check out the latest Food City 500 odds:

Food City 500 Favorites

The following drivers are considered by oddsmakers to be the odds-on favorites to win the Food City 500:

Kyle Larson +400   

• Driver Standings: 6
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 4
• Top 10: 5

Things didn’t turn out well for Kyle Larson last weekend in Darlington. His car sustained suspension issues, which led to a DNF. That result dropped Larson four spots in the driver standings from 2^nd to 6^th overall.

Fortunately for Larson, he heads to Bristol where the #5 car has been one of the best at in recent years. In fact, Larson is set to compete in all three races this weekend as he’s entered the Truck, Xfinity and Cup Series races. And, Larson is the odds-on favorite for all three events.

If you recall, just a few weeks ago, Larson came close to sweeping all three races at Miami. He finished 1^st in the Truck race, 4^th in the Xfinity race, and 1^st in the Cup race.

Larson isn’t shy about his love for Bristol:

“To me, it’s the closest style to a dirt sprint car race although it’s a lot longer still. Just the intensity, the aggression, the fast-paced style of that race, I’m comfortable with. And, and I just love that track. I look forward to going there.”

In 17 starts at Bristol Motor Speedway, Larson has two wins, seven Top 5s, 12 Top 10s, and a series leading 11.0 average finish. He’s won two of the last five races at this track including the fall event last year.

The #5 car has five consecutive Top 5 results and six consecutive Top 10 finishes at Bristol. I expect those trends to continue as Larson is a contender for the checkered flag in the Food City 500.

Denny Hamlin +400

• Driver Standings: 2
• Win: 2
• Top 5: 4
• Top 10: 5

Denny Hamlin has really come on strong over the last month. He was 12^th in the standings after Las Vegas and then tallied three straight Top 5 finishes, which includes two victories in a row. This propelled him up to 2^nd in the driver standings along with the second most wins in the field as of this weekend.

Ironically, when Larson hasn’t won over the last handful of Bristol races, it’s been Hamlin. In 35 starts, Hamlin has four wins, 12 Top 5s, 19 Top 10s, and a 13.3 average finish.

He’s won two of the last three, and three of the last eight Bristol races. Furthermore, he has three consecutive Top 5 finishes and five straight Top 10s.

Just like with Larson, Hamlin is a serious contender to take the checkered flag on Sunday.

Christopher Bell +600      

• Driver Standings: 3
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 5

Since winning three races in a row, Christopher Bell has seen some ups and downs over the last month. He scored a 12^th at Vegas and 29^th at Miami. However, he’s turned things around over the last two weeks with a 2^nd at Martinsville and a 3^rd at Darlington last weekend. This has pushed Bell back up to 3^rd in the driver standings.

Bell is also third among the Cup Series field with a 12.6 average finish at Bristol. He’s never won at this track for a Cup race, but does have three Top 5s and five Top 10s in seven appearances. Bell has three Top 5s in the last four races and has finished in the Top 10 for all four of those events.

I see Bell as a Top 5 driver this weekend with a Top 3 ceiling. However, I’m hesitant on putting him into contention to win the race. I think Larson and Hamlin should edge out the #20 car.

Ryan Blaney +700

• Driver Standings: 7
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 3

After scoring three consecutive DNFs, and falling from 2^nd to 10^th in the standings, Ryan Blaney is slowly clawing his way back into relevancy. He finished 11^th at Martinsville and 5^th at Darlington over the last two weeks, which bumped him up to 7^th in the standings.

At Bristol, Blaney has two Top 5s, six Top 10s, and an 18.6 average finish in 16 starts. He’s only cracked the Top 10 twice in the last seven Bristol races. Over that span, he’s scored one DNF and one Top 5 as well.

I’m fading Blaney this weekend as I think his odds are greatly overvalued. Blaney has never won at this track. Additionally, of the favorites, he has the worst average finish at Bristol.

Furthermore, he has just one Top 10 finish in the last six Cup Series races this season, and has just as many DNFs (3) and he does Top 10s (3) over the first two months of the year.

Chase Elliott +800

• Driver Standings: 4
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 5

What we’re seeing from Chase Elliott in 2025 so far, is a driver that’s quietly going about his business each week. Elliott has five Top 10s in eight races so far, which includes two in a row. He had a strong car at Martinsville, but faded late in the race. That was the closest he has come to winning this year.

At Bristol, Elliott has never won a Cup race but he has been highly consistent here as well. In fact, Bristol has been a microcosm of Elliott’s 2025 season.

In 15 Bristol starts, Elliott has five Top 5s, nine Top 10s, and tied with Larson for the best average finish (11.0). He’s tallied four Top 8s in a row, which includes finishing runner up to Larson last fall.

I like for Elliott to be a Top 10 driver with a good chance of scoring a Top 5 result this weekend.

William Byron +1100

• Driver Standings: 1
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 4
• Top 10: 5

I don’t have the same confidence in William Byron this weekend as I do his two teammates Larson and Elliott. Byron has two Top 5s, four Top 10s, and a 17.4 average finish in 11 Bristol starts. Those aren’t exactly confidence boosting numbers.

Yet, Byron has been one of the best drivers in 2025 up to this point. So, that does give me a little more confidence that the #24 car can be a Top 10 driver with a Top 5 ceiling.

Byron has four Top 5s and five Top 10s in eight races so far. That also includes winning at the Daytona 500 to start off the year.

Byron finished second last weekend to Hamlin despite dominating the race by leading 243 laps. I believe that he will carry that momentum over this weekend as well.

The Best Food City 500 Betting Value

The following drivers are my NASCAR picks for the best betting value in the Food City 500 based on their previous success at Bristol Motor Speedway:

Joey Logano +3000

• Driver Standings: 9
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 0
• Top 10: 1

Joey Logano has been a disappointing this season so far. That’s a sentiment that I have repeated on a weekly basis. In eight starts, he has just one Top 10 result which came two weeks ago in Martinsville. Last weekend, he finished 13^th which is the 5^th time that he’s finished in the 12 to 15 range.

In other words, Logano has been a “mid” driver this year with a 16.8 average finish. And, yet, he sits 9^th in the standings.

At Bristol, Logano has two wins, six Top 5s, 10 Top 10s, and a 16.7 average finish. Because he’s won twice at this track, I believe his +3000 odds give us some value on a very small flier.

Just be aware that Logano hasn’t cracked the Top 10 at Bristol since 2019. And, he has two DNFs in the last four races. Thus, a small flier.

Chris Buescher +3000

• Driver Standings: 11
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 1
• Top 10: 5

Just like Logano, Chris Buescher has +3000 odds. And, yet, I like him more this weekend than I do Logano. The #17 car might sit two spots lower than Logano in the standings, but he does have one Top 5 and five Top 10s unlike the reigning Cup Series champ.

Buescher finished 6^th last weekend in Darlington which was his second Top 6 result over the last three weeks. He also has four Top 7 finishes in the last six Cup races.

Buescher’s Bristol numbers might not be as impressive as some of the favorites above. But he’s been very strong over the last few years at this track.

In 16 starts, the #17 car has one win, three Top 5s, five Top 10s and an 18.2 average finish. Yet, he’s tallied a win, two Top 5s, and three Top 10s in the last four races. In fact, over that span, he has a 6.5 average finish at Bristol.

I think Buescher will be a Top 10 car this Sunday with a Top 5 ceiling.

The Top Food City 500 Longshot

Ryan Preece +3500 is my longshot bet at Bristol this weekend. Preece sits 13^th in the standings with one Top 5 and three Top 10s in eight races so far. Additionally, he’s led 43 laps and picked up one stage win over the first two months of the season.

In eight Bristol starts, Preece has two Top 10s and a 14.3 average finish which is the 5^th best among the field. He finished 7^th in the fall Bristol race last year and has a 10.5 average finish in his last two BMS appearances.

Sure, it will take some luck for Preece to win, but he does have the numbers that indicate he could be in a position to benefit from some lucky breaks in the final laps.

Food City 500 Predictions

In the last five Bristol events, Larson and Hamlin have won four of them. The two split the Bristol races here last year, Hamlin won the fall event in 2023, and Larson won in the fall of 2021. The one race that these two drivers didn’t win was the fall of 2022, where Chris Buescher beat out Eliott, Byron and Bell.

So, it should come as no surprise that my Top 5 drivers this weekend are Larson, Hamlin, Elliott, Bell and Buescher or Byron.

Elliott, Byron and Bell have never won at this track. There’s certainly a chance that one of these three drivers could pick up their first Cup Series Bristol victory on Sunday. Yet, I lean towards that not happening.

I also feel that Buescher will most likely get edged out by Hamlin and Larson. I see the race win coming down to these two drivers. Will Hamlin get three victories in a row or will Larson pick up his second win of the season.

With Larson’s disappointing run last Sunday, and the fact that he’s racing in all three circuits this weekend, I think he will be 100% dialed in for the Food City 500. I like the #5 car’s chances of taking the checkered flag ahead of Hamlin. I don’t think you could go wrong with either driver winning this Sunday. The best handicappers are split on both as well.

Bet: Kyle Larson (+400)

NASCAR Food City 500 Prop Bets

The following Food City 500 prop bets are courtesy of various sportsbooks like Bet365:

Either To Finish In The Top 3 at Bristol

I think the duo of Chris Buescher and Chase Elliott is a sneaky combo for this prop bet. I believe both drivers can finish in the Top 5 on Sunday. While Elliott has yet to win at Bristol, he does have a couple of Top 3 results over the last few years. And, as mentioned above, Buescher won at Bristol in 2022.

At +180 odds, we’re practically doubling our money here.

Bet: Chris Buescher or Chase Elliott (+180)

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Food City 500

Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin are both listed at -125 odds to finish in the Top 5 this Sunday. Either driver is worthy of this prop bet.

Larson has five consecutive Top 5 finishes and a 3.3 average finish over the last six races at this track. Hamlin has three consecutive Top 5 results and a 5.8 average finish over the last five Bristol races.

Both men have won twice in the last five events at this venue. And, they’re both tied as the pre-race favorites to win the Food City 500. With that said, Larson’s numbers over the last five years have been slightly better, so I’m taking him for this prop bet.

Bet: Kyle Larson (-125)

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Food City 500

I like Chris Buescher for this prop bet because his +100 odds offer better value than anyone else listed above him. As mentioned above, Buescher has a win, two Top 5s, three Top 10s, and a 6.5 average finish in the last four Bristol races. Additionally, he has five Top 10s on the season so far.

Buescher has four Top 10s in the last six Cup races, which includes 6^th last weekend in Darlington. I like for the #17 car to be a Top 10 driver this weekend as well.

Bet: Chris Buescher (+100)

Winning Manufacturer

• Chevrolet (+140)
• Toyota (+140)
• Ford (+275)

I have hammered Chevy drivers to win, finish in the Top 3, and Top 5 this weekend. I think hedging our bets with Toyota seems to be a decent option here, instead of continuing to ride with Chevy.

Hamlin and Bell are two of the Top 4 drivers for average finish among the field. Additionally, Hamlin has won two of the last three Bristol races.

Bet: Toyota (+140)

Team of Race Winner

• Joe Gibbs Racing (+140)
• Hendrick Motorsports (+160)
• Team Penske (+600)
• RFK Racing (+850)
• 23XL Racing (+1400)
• Trackhouse Racing (+2200)
• Richard Childress Racing (+2500)
• Wood Brothers Racing (+3500)
• Spire Motorsports (+5000)
• Front Row Motorsports (+6000)

I am a bit surprised to see JGR sitting at the top of this prop bet. I understand that Bell and Hamlin have combined to win five of the first eight races of the year so far. However, Hendrick Motorsports has been even more impressive at Bristol than JGR.

I believe that the win will come down to these two teams, like it does most weeks. In fact, these two teams have already won seven of the first eight races in 2025.

That trend will continue on Sunday. Yet, I’m taking Hendrick Motorsports for this prop bet. Byron has been really strong this year and should’ve won last weekend. Elliott and Larson are tied for the best average finish among Cup Series drivers.

Bet: Hendrick Motorsports (+160)

Winning Car Number

• Over 14.5 (+105)
• Under 14.5 (-135)

Without any hesitation, I am taking the Under for this prop bet. With the Under, we get the following cars: (1) Chastain, (5) Larson, (6) Keselowski, (8) Busch, (9) Elliott, (11) Hamlin, and (12) Blaney.

Larson, Keselowski, Busch and Hamlin have combined for 17 wins at Bristol Motor Speedway. Larson Elliott, Hamlin and Blaney are four of the Top 5 odds-on favorites to win this weekend as well.

Bet: Under 14.5 (-135)