On Sunday, July 20, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Dover Motor Speedway for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400. This event marks the 21^st race of the season and the fourth round of the In-Season Challenge.

More commonly known as “The Monster Mile,” Dover is an intermediate track that has similar characteristics of a short track. This venue has been a part of NASCAR since 1969, when Richard Petty won the first race here.

Last weekend, Shane van Gisbergen won another road race as he dominated the Toyota Save Mart 350 at Sonoma. It was his third win in the last five races. All three wins were on road courses.

This weekend, Denny Hamlin comes in as the odds-on favorite to win the NASCAR Dover race. He’s followed by Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, and Chase Elliott. SVG is a massive +30000 longshot on the concrete mile.

In addition to the field trying to win this race, the In-Season Challenge will see the final four drivers battle it out for the right to race in the finals next week.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR Dover odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 predictions for this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series event at Dover Motor Speedway.

Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Race Profile

Dover Motor Speedway (DMS) was formerly known as Dover International Speedway up until a few years ago. So, you might still see sources calling it by that name.

The track broke ground in October 1967, and held it’s first Cup Series race in July 1969. “The King” Richard Petty won the first two races and three of the first four at this track.

Dover used to hold two annual races each season. However, the second event was taken off in 2021, and given to Nashville.

DMS is a one-mile, oval-shaped track with a concrete surface (1995). It features four turns with high banking of 24 degrees and two straights with nine-degree banking.

Sunday’s Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 400 miles
• Total Laps: 400 laps
• Stage 1: 120 laps
• Stage 2: 130 laps
• Final Stage: 150 laps

The Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 will begin at 2pm ET live on TNT and MAX.

Recent Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Winners

The great Jimmie Johnson holds the record for the most wins at Dover with 11. Hendrick Motorsports, Johnson’s old team, has the record for the most victories at Dover with 22. Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with three wins at DMS.

The following is a list of the most recent winners:

• 2024: Denny Hamlin
• 2023: Martin Truex Jr.
• 2022: Chase Elliott
• 2021: Alex Bowman
• 2020: Denny Hamlin
• 2019: Martin Truex Jr.
• 2018: Kevin Harvick
• 2017: Jimmie Johnson
• 2016: Matt Kenseth
• 2015: Jimmie Johnson

In regards to this specific Dover race, Johnson holds the record with six wins. Bobby Allison sits in second with five victories. Hendrick Motorsports has won this Dover event 12 times. Hamlin and Busch are the only active drivers with multiple wins in this Dover race.

NASCAR Dover Odds

Check out the latest Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 odds:

Denny Hamlin is the clear-cut odds-on favorite to win this race. He’s the defending race winner and has multiple Dover wins in his career. However, drivers like Larson, Blaney, Byron, and Elliott are right on his rear bumper.

Continue reading below to see my breakdown of the betting favorites along with provided some value plays and a longshot driver. You can also compare my picks with the best handicappers.

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Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Favorites

The following drivers are considered by oddsmakers to be the odds-on favorites to win the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400:

Denny Hamlin +375         

• Standings: 5
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 9
• Top 10: 10

For the second time in his last three races, Denny Hamlin has finished 20^th or worse. It led him to slip from fourth to fifth in the standings.

However, Hamlin heads to Dover where he’s had plenty of success at over the years. In 34 DMS starts, Hamlin has two wins, eight Top 5s, 16 Top 10s, and a 15.6 average finish.

Hamlin won last year’s race, has two Top 5 results in a row, and has three Top 7s in the last four races which he’s led laps in, as well.

The #11 car absolutely dominated the race last year as he led 136 of the 400 laps. That was nearly 70 more laps led than Truex Jr., who had led the second most laps.

I think Hamlin is a Top 10 car with a race-winning ceiling. However, I don’t think his odds offer any value from winning the race through a Top 10 result. It’s a risky bet with Hamlin considering other drivers offer more value and have better average finishes.

Kyle Larson +500

• Standings: 3
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 9
• Top 10: 12

Kyle Larson is one of the drivers that offer better value than Hamlin. In 16 DMS starts, Larson has one win, eight Top 5s, 12 Top 10s and leads the field with an 8.2 average finish.

Larson finished runner up last year to Hamlin and has five Top 6 finishes in the last six races at Dover. He has four Top 3s over that span and won at DMS in the fall of 2019.

I prefer the value with Larson over Hamlin and think he has just as good of a chance at winning this race on Sunday.

Ryan Blaney +700

• Standings: 7
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 8

Ryan Blaney is another favorite that I am fading his race-winning odds this weekend. The #12 car has two Top 7s in a row, but only one Top 5 and four Top 10s in 14 overall DMS starts. His 17.4 average finish is well below other favorites and he seems to be slightly below drivers like Larson, Hamlin, Elliott and others.

I wouldn’t touch Blaney this weekend unless it’s in a driver matchup where you are picking him to lose. Sure, he could finish in the Top 5, but his Dover resume suggests more of a 12-17 range.

William Byron +700

• Standings: 1
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 11

William Byron’s lead in the driver standings has shrunk to just 14 points over his teammate Chase Elliott. And, he comes into Dover with just one Top 10 in the last four races. In fact, he has two crashes in the last three races and three finishes of 27^th or worse in the last four events.

This is definitely a driver in a slump. And, his Dover resume doesn’t give us confidence either. In 10 DMS starts, Byron has three Top 5s, four Top 10s and a 14.9 average finish. He crashed out of last year’s race and has two finishes of 22^nd or worse in his last three Dover starts.

Byron is capable of sneaking into the Top 5 this weekend, but I wouldn’t bet on it. He’s highly overvalued this weekend like Blaney is. I would skip the #24 altogether on Sunday.

Chase Elliott +900 

• Standings: 2
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 11

Unlike Blaney and Byron, I’m high on Chase Elliott this weekend in Dover. In fact, he’s one of my top plays this weekend.

In 14 DMS starts, Elliott has two wins, 10 Top 5s, 10 Top 10s, and a 9.5 average finish which is the second best among the field.

Elliott has a win and three Top 5s in the last four Dover races. In fact, outside of two DNFs (crash and blown engine), Elliott has 12 Top 12s.

I believe Elliott is a Top 10 driver with a race winning ceiling on Sunday. And I love his value for a Top 5 finish which I will go into more detail further below.

Ross Chastain +1200

• Standings: 8
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 9

Ross Chastain sits inside the Top 10 of the driver standings. However, I think he’s also slightly overvalued this week. Chastain has just two Top 5s and two Top 10s in 10 DMS starts. Those results came in the last three DMS races.

Chastain was 12^th last year, but 2^nd in 2023, and 3^rd in 2022. He also led laps in those two races where he finished in the Top 3.

With that said, Chastain has just one Top 10 in the last five Cup Series races, which was two weeks ago in Chicago. He finished 24^th last weekend. Prior to the two road course races, Chastain was 26^th at Pocono and 33^rd in Atlanta.

I really don’t feel confident in Chastain finishing higher than the 8 to 13 range.

The Best Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Betting Value

The following drivers are my NASCAR picks for the best betting value in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 based on their previous success at the Dover International Speedway:

Tyler Reddick +1600

• Standings: 4
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 8

In six Dover starts, Reddick has two Top 10s and a 14.5 average finish. He’s completed every start, which is more than we can say about half of the field. Reddick has a 9.0 average finish in the last two DMS races.

Of the Top 9 drivers in the standings, Reddick is the only one without a win. However, he’s heating up on the season. Reddick has three straight Top 6 finishes from Atlanta to Chicago to Sonoma. These are three very different races, as well.

Another reason why I like Reddick this weekend is due to his chance of advancing to the final round of the In-Season Challenge. The #45 car is the top driver left in the field. Yet, he will battle Ty Gibbs who is my other value bet this weekend.

I think both of these drivers have a chance at finishing in the Top 10 on Sunday. With that said, I am leaning towards Reddick to score a higher finish, but barely.

Ty Gibbs +2500

• Standings: 17
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 5

Like Reddick, Ty Gibbs is coming on strong over the last two months. In his last six Cup races, Gibbs has two Top 5s, three Top 10s, and six Top 14s. He was 7^th at Sonoma last weekend and runner up at Chicago two weeks ago.

In two Dover races, Gibbs has an 11.5 average finish as he was 13^th in 2023, and 10^th last year. He edged out Reddick by one spot last year.

This weekend, I think Reddick gets the better by one. However, I do like Gibbs Top 10 odds of +140. There’s value here and it’s a safer play than his race-winning odds.

The most risk I would take for Gibbs is his Top 5 odds of +400. That’s also better than Reddick’s at +275. However, I feel more comfortable with the duo finishing in the 6-11 range than cracking the Top 5. Yet, with a chance for advancing in the tournament, anything can happen.

The Top Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Longshot

Joey Logano +3000 is my top longshot pick for the second week in a row. I stated to skips his race-winning odds and jump on the reigning Cup Series Champ for a Top 10 pick at Sonoma. And, Logano came through with a 9^th place result.

Although his Top 10 odds aren’t as high as last weekend, he still has a +160 line to finish in the Top 10. Logano has three Top 10s in the last six Dover races and five in the last nine. He sports 15 Top 10s in 28 DMS starts, which is a 53.6% Top 10 finishing rate.  

Logano has averaged a 10.0 finish in the last two Cup Series races. Take a flier on a second consecutive Top 10 result.

Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Predictions

Will the real Kyle Larson please stand up. One of the top drivers in the Cup Series has not finished better than 7^th in the last five races. He hasn’t won since Kansas, which was nine races and nearly three months ago.

With that said, I think we’re going to see the dominant Larson return this weekend. And, with a field of drivers that aren’t any better than the #5 car at Dover, over the last few years, you have to like his chances.

Larson has five Top 6 finishes in the last six DMS races. He was runner up last year to Hamlin and also won in 2019. A poor car in 2023, is the one blemish on his record since 2016. If u ignore that result, then Larson has five Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and nine Top 12s in the nine other races since then.

The only other drivers I feel confident in contending for the checkered flag are Elliott, Hamlin and the surprise pick of Alex Bowman, who I will break down in more detail below. I’m taking Larson to win in Dover and regain some much-needed momentum for the Playoffs in six weeks.

Bet: Kyle Larson (+500)

NASCAR Dover Prop Bets

Check out the following NASCAR prop bets for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400:

Either To Finish In The Top 3 at Dover

I really like these two Hendrick Motorsports teammates. In fact, if you add Larson, then I’m super high on three of Hendrick’s four drivers. I’m not as confident in William Byron this weekend.

Elliott and Bowman have combined to finish in the Top 3 in two of the last four Dover races. They’ve also won two of the last four DMS events.  

Bet: Bowman or Elliott (+150)

The Best Top 5 Bet for Dover

Chase Elliott (+160) has the best Top 5 finishing rate at 71.4%. He’s tallied 10 Top 5s in 14 starts, which includes three in the last four races. Over that span, Elliott has a 5.0 average finish. The #9 car was 5^th last year, 11^th in 2023, won the race in 2022, and finished third in 2021.

Bet: Chase Elliott (+160)

The Best Top 10 Bet for Dover

Alex Bowman (+300) is a sneaky play this weekend, and I love the value that he provides for a Top 10 finish. Bowman has one win, five Top 5s, and six Top 10s in 13 starts.

However, the #48 car tallied all of that success in the last seven DMS races. Bowman finished in the Top 3 for both races in 2019. He has four Top 8s in the last four races, which includes winning the 2021 edition of this event.

You would be hard pressed to find a better Top 10 pick that combines success and results like Bowman does.

Bet: Alex Bowman (+300)

Winning Manufacturer

• Chevrolet (+100)
• Toyota (+175)
• Ford (+320)

Ford has just one win in the last nine Dover races. Toyota has four over that span, as does Chevy. However, Toyota has won the last two editions of this race.

With that said, I am still taking Chevy to win. The manufacturer has been on a tear as of late. I love the chances of Larson, Bowman, and Elliott this weekend. Let’s also not forget that Kyle Busch drives a chevy and he has three wins at Dover.

Bet: Chevrolet (+100)

Team of Race Winner

• Hendrick Motorsports (+145)
• Joe Gibbs Racing (+190)
• Team Penske (+550)
• Trackhouse Racing (+1200)
• RFK Racing (+1200)
• 23XI Racing (+1400)
• Richard Childress Racing (+2000)
• Spire Motorsports (+2200)

Let’s hedge our bets here. I have rolled with Hendrick Motorsports for most of the prop bets and the race winning prediction. But I am going to hedge this approach with Joe Gibbs Racing for this prop bet. Hamlin is the odds-on favorite to win this race. JGR has won the last two editions of this race, as well.

I think Ty Gibbs offers value, and I will never count out a driver like Christopher Bell who has two Top 6s in the last three DMS races.

Bet: Joe Gibbs Racing (+190)

Winning Car Number

• Over 12.5 (+100)
• Under 12.5 (-130)

Since we’re not on road courses, and don’t have SVG as a contender this weekend, we can get back to the basics and that means siding with the top drivers in the Cup Series like Hamlin, Elliott and Larson.

All three drivers are Under 12.5 and are some of the favorites to win this race. With this option, we also have drivers like Blaney, Chastain, Busch, Cindric, and Keselowski.

Over the last 11 Dover races, there have been seven different winners. Of those seven winners, two are retired in Truex and Harvick. Of the five remaining winners, four of them are Under 12.5.

Bet: Under 12.5 (-130)