2025 NASCAR Straight Talk Wireless 400 Odds and Predictions

On Sunday, March 23, NASCAR’s Cup Series heads to the Homestead-Miami Speedway for the 6^th race of the regular season – the Straight Talk Wireless 400.

This year, NASCAR moved the Miami race from its traditional fall slot to late March. It’s just the third time that this Miami NASCAR race has been held outside of October or November.

Tyler Reddick is the defending race winner. He comes in slightly behind Kyle Larson as the odds-on favorite to win on Sunday. Joining them in the Top 5 betting favorites are Ryan Blaney, William Byron and Christopher Bell.

Last weekend, these highly touted NASCAR drivers were thwarted in Las Vegas as Josh Berry pulled off  the shocking upset to win the Pennzoil 400.

Will we get another surprise winner or will things return to normal with one of the pre-race favorites taking the checkered flag?

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR Miami odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Straight Talk Wireless 400 predictions for this weekend’s Cup Series race at the Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Straight Talk Wireless 400 Race Profile

The Homestead-Miami Speedway first entered the NASCAR Cup Series calendar in 1999. From the inaugural race through 2002, the race was run on the second 1.5 mile layout, which had 6 degrees of banking. By 2003, the Cup Series began racing on a new 1.5 mile layout that increased the corner banking to 18-20 degrees.

Additionally, the Homestead-Miami race was moved a few times throughout the season. From 2004-2019, it was the final race of the Cup Series Playoffs. In 2020, it was moved to March. In 2021, the race was held in February. By 2022, the Homestead-Miami race was moved to October where it currently sits on the calendar.

Sunday’s Straight Talk Wireless 400 race breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 400.5 miles
• Total Laps: 267 laps
• Stage 1: 80 laps
• Stage 2: 80 laps
• Final Stage: 107 laps

The Straight Talk Wireless 400 is set to begin at 3pm ET and will air live on FS1.

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Previous Straight Talk Wireless 400 Winners

Tony Stewart won the inaugural Miami NASCAR race in 1999. He would go on to finish with three wins at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Stewart is tied with Greg Biffle and Denny Hamlin for the most wins at this track.

The following is a list of the most recent winners:

• 2024: Tyler Reddick
• 2023: Christopher Bell
• 2022: Kyle Larson
• 2021: William Byron
• 2020: Denny Hamlin
• 2019: Kyle Busch
• 2018: Joey Logano
• 2017: Martin Truex Jr.
• 2016: Jimmie Johnson
• 2015: Kyle Busch
• 2014: Kevin Harvick

Joe Gibbs Racing holds the all-time record for most team wins with nine. RFK racing is second at seven wins. Ford and Toyota are tied with eight manufacturer wins apiece. Only seven active Cup Series drivers have won at Miami.

NASCAR Straight Talk Wireless 400 Odds

The following NASCAR Cup Series Straight Talk Wireless 400 odds are courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

NASCAR Straight Talk Wireless 400 Favorites

The following drivers are considered by oddsmakers to be the odds-on favorites to win the Straight Talk Wireless 400:

Kyle Larson +300   

• Driver Standings: 6
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 3

Kyle Larson enters this weekend’s event as the odds-on favorite. Yet, he sits 6^th in the driver standings after moving up five spots from the previous week.

Larson led 61 laps last weekend in Las Vegas and was my pick to win the race. Unfortunately, he faded late and finished 9^th overall despite leading the most laps in the race. It was his third Top 10 finish in the last four races. Additionally, he has yet to score a DNF on the year.

At Miami, Larson has one win, five Top 5s, five Top 10s, and a 13.0 average finish in 11 starts. He crashed out of this race two years ago and was 13^th last season. Larson did win this race in 2022. He’s also led laps in four straight Miami NASCAR races.

For this weekend, I think Larson can be a Top 10 car with a Top 3 ceiling. I’m hesitant to pick the #5 car to take the checkered flag since he’s yet to really come close to winning a race this year.

Tyler Reddick +400

• Driver Standings: 3
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 2

As mentioned above, Tyler Reddick is the defending winner of this race. Since making his first Cup Series appearance at Miami in 2020, Reddick has been dominant at this track.

In five starts, Reddick has one win, four Top 5s, four Top 10s, and a 9.0 average finish which is second best among the field. He crashed out of the 2022 race. In his other four appearances, Reddick has four Top 4 finishes. Nobody else has performed better than Reddick at Miami. Only Christopher Bell has been as impressive.

For Reddick, Miami is a welcoming sight considering how subpar he’s performed this season despite sitting third in the standings.

At Daytona and COTA, Reddick has two Top 3 finishes. Unfortunately, he has three finishes of 19^th or worse in the other three Cup Series races so far.

Reddick was 24^th last weekend in Vegas, which was slightly down from his 20^th in Phoenix’s Shriners Children’s 500 race.

I would love to say that Reddick is the man to beat on Sunday, based on his past success at this track, but his subpar 2025 season to date, gives me cause for concern. Instead, I place Reddick as a Top 10 driver with a Top 3 ceiling.

Ryan Blaney +500

• Driver Standings: 7
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 1
• Top 10: 2

The 2023 Cup Series Champion currently sits 7^th in the standings after fall three spots due crashing out of Vegas last weekend and finishing 35^th. It was his second straight DNF on the season and third consecutive result of 19^th or worse. Since week 2, Blaney has fallen from first to seventh in the standings.

This weekend doesn’t give me much hope for the #12 car to enter victory lane. In 10 Miami starts, Blaney has zero wins, three Top 5s, three Top 10s, and a 15.3 average finish.

He has finished runner up in the last two races. However, the previous two races to that streak saw Blaney score a 23.0 average finish.

I think the #12 car is a Top 10 driver with a Top 3 ceiling this Sunday.

William Byron +600

• Driver Standings: 1
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 4

With each of the three favorites above, I have listed reasons why I’m hesitant to pick them to win this race on Sunday. However, when we get to William Byron and Bell, I find it hard to think that one of these two drivers won’t win the NASCAR Miami race this weekend.

Over the first five races on the season, Byron sits first in the standings, second in wins, and tied for first in Top 5s (3) and Top 10s (4). In fact, over his last three races, Byron has a 4.0 average finish. The #24 car leads the field with an 8.0 average finish on the season.

At Miami, Byron has one win, two Top s, four Top 10s, and a 13.6 average finish in seven starts. If you throw out his first two appearances at this venue, then Byron has a 6.4 average finish with one win, two Top 5s, four top 10s, and five Top 12s.

Byron has led laps in three of the last four Miami races. He was 6^th in last year’s race, but won this event in 2021.

I see Byron securing another Top 10 result this weekend and being a real threat to take the checkered flag.

Christopher Bell +800      

• Driver Standings: 2
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 3

Christopher Bell remains in second place overall despite leading the field with three wins this season. He’s also tied with Byron for three Top 5s on the year, 2^nd for Top 10s (3), and second with a 9.2 average finish.

After winning in Atlanta, COTA and Phoenix, Bell finished 12^th at Las Vegas last weekend. He also didn’t lead any laps in the race.

The #20 car will look to bounce back at Miami this weekend, and he’s a real threat to take his fourth checkered flag of the season.

In five Miami starts, Bell has one win, two Top 5s, three Top 10s, and leads the pack with an 8.8 average finish. He’s finished all five races and won this event in 2023. Last year, Bell finished 4^th overall. He’s also led laps in three straight races. Bell’s worst result was 20^th in the 2021 edition.

Just like Byron, I have Bell as a Top 10 driver with a race winning ceiling.

Denny Hamlin +1200

• Driver Standings: 12
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 1
• Top 10: 2

Denny Hamlin is a tale of two stories coming into this weekend. The first tale is that Hamlin has been a strong driver at Miami. The second tale is that Hamlin has been an inferior driver over the first five races on the season.

Currently, Hamlin sits 12^th in the standings after falling five spots. He finished 25^th at Vegas last weekend, which marked his third finish of 20^th or worse on the season. He was runner up in Phoenix, but it seems like that was more of an outlier at this point of the season.

Fortunately for Hamlin, he has raced well at Miami in his career. Over 20 starts, Hamlin has three wins, six Top 5s, 13 Top 10s and a 10.5 average finish. Among active full-time drivers, Hamlin leads the field in wins, Top 5s and Top 10s at Miami.

On the season, Hamlin has alternated between a 20+ finish and a Top 6 finish. Since he was 25^th last weekend, that means the #11 car should finish in the Top 10 this weekend. I put his race ceiling at a Top 5 result.

The Best Straight Talk Wireless 400 Betting Value

The following drivers are my NASCAR picks for the best betting value in the Straight Talk Wireless 400 based on their previous success at the Homestead-Miami Speedway:

Joey Logano +2200

• Driver Standings: 8
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 0
• Top 10: 0

The reigning Cup Series Champion is off to a poor start this season. Sure, he sits 8^th in the standings after moving up one spot, but Joey Logano has yet to even crack the Top 10 in a Cup Series race this season.

Logano’s best result was 12^th in Atlanta. He was 15^th last weekend in Vegas, which followed up a 12^th in Phoenix. This is certainly not the kind of start that the #22 car had in mind for the beginning of the 2025 season.

At Miami, Logano has one win, four Top 5s, seven Top 10s, and a 15.4 average finish in 16 starts. Unfortunately, he has just one Top 10 in the last five Miami races. Since winning this event in 2018, Logano has one Top 5 and one Top 10 in the last six races at this speedway.

In 2024, Logano finished 28^th, which was his third finish of 25^th or worse in the last five events. Only an 8^th place result in 2023, has kept Logano from five consecutive results of 18^th or worse.

At best, Logano is a Top 10 driver this weekend. However, if he gets a lucky break, Logano could end up in victory lane.

Kyle Busch +2500

• Driver Standings: 17
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 1
• Top 10: 3

Kyle Busch comes into this race sitting 17^th in the standings after dropping nine spots. He finished 33^rd in Vegas, which snapped a three-race streak of 8^th or better. Now, Busch heads to Miami where he’s had some success at in his career.

Over 20 starts at this speedway, Busch has two wins, five Top 5s, 11 Top 10s and a 16.0 average finish. Although he’s had two poor results over the last two races at this venue, Busch did have an eight-race streak of finishing 10^th or better along with two wins over that span.

On the season, Busch has three Top 10 results. I think with the way he’s performing so far, that he can be a Top 10 driver at Miami. And, like Logano, if Busch gets some lucky to go his way, then he could contend for the checkered flag.

With the way many drivers have been performing so far, this is not a big “if” for Busch.

The Top Straight Talk Wireless 400 Longshot

A.J. Allmendinger (+8000) is my pick for the top longshot this weekend. And, after Josh Berry’s shocking win at Vegas last weekend, longshots are not out of the equation when it comes to winning a Cup Series race.

Allmendinger finished 8^th last weekend in Vegas, which was his best result of the season. He now heads to Miami, where Allmendinger has three Top 5s and six Top 10s in 13 starts. More importantly, the #16 car has three consecutive Top 8 finishes at Miami.

He was 3^rd in 2022, 5^th in 2023, and 8^th last year. Over his last six Miami races, Allmendinger has a 9.5 average finish. For a longshot, these are solid numbers.

Straight Talk Wireless 400 Predictions

There are a handful of drivers that can contend for the checkered flag on Sunday. My Top 5 drivers are Bell, Reddick, Byron, Hamlin and Larson.

I really would like to pick Reddick to win this race, but he’s not performing well on the season so far. Three finishes of 19^th or worse and a 13.6 average finish have me fading the #45 car.

I also feel the same way about Hamlin and Larson. Hamlin has just one Top 5 in five races this season and three results of 21^st or worse with a 15.6 average finish. Larson is sitting higher in the standings and has two Top 5s with three Top 10s. Yet, he’s failed to win a race this year, and has not really been in contention to win during the final laps.

The reality is, Byron and Bell have the most momentum this year so far. And, when you combine that with their past success at Miami, it’s hard to argue against one of these two drivers winning the Straight Talk Wireless 400 on Sunday.

Bell won this race in 2023, while Byron won it in 2021. They both sit at the top of the driver standings and lead the field in wins, Top 5s, Top 10s, and average finish.

Bell has been slightly better at Miami than Byron has. Although Bell has more wins, Byron has been slightly more consistent on the season. I’m taking Byron to win this race on Sunday.

He has four Top 6 finishes out of five races, including a win at Daytona and a second at COTA. He also led the second most laps at Phoenix behind race winner Bell. I don’t think you can go wrong taking either driver as your NASCAR pick this weekend.

Bet: William Byron (+700)

NASCAR Straight Talk Wireless 400 Prop Bets

The following NASCAR Straight Talk Wireless 400 prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:

Either To Finish Top 3 at Miami

I’m going with the veterans for this race as Busch and Hamlin are the only two active full-time drivers with 20 appearances at Miami. Combined, these two men have five wins, 11 Top 5s, 24 Top 10s, and three Poles. Hamlin last won a Miami race in 2020, while Busch last won in 2019.

More recently, Hamlin was third last year, while Busch has three Top 3s in his last 10 appearances at this speedway.

Bet: Busch or Hamlin (+230)

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Straight Talk Wireless 400

Let’s go with Tyler Reddick (-130) for the best Top 5 bet this weekend. As mentioned above, Reddick won this race last year, has two consecutive Top 3 finishes, has four Top 5s in five appearances, and a 9.0 average finish. If it weren’t for crashing out of the 2022 race, Reddick would be a massive favorite this weekend.

Bet: Tyler Reddick (-130)

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Straight Talk Wireless 400

Chase Elliott (-125) is a solid choice for the best Top 10 wager this Sunday. In nine Miami starts, Elliott has four Top 10s and a 9.8 average finish which is the third best among the field.

Elliott finished 5^th last year and has never scored a result outside of the Top 15. All of the betting favorites above Elliott have no value with their Top 10 odds.

Bet: Chase Elliott (-125)

Winning Manufacturer

• Chevrolet (+120)
• Toyota (+170)
• Ford (+300)

As mentioned above, Ford and Toyota have the most Miami wins with eight apiece. However, Chevy is just one behind with seven wins.

Toyota has won four of the last six races at this track, including two in a row. Ford hasn’t won since 2018. Chevy last won in 2021 and 2022.

I’m sticking with Chevy to win this weekend, as I like the top Chevy drivers of Byron, Larson, Elliott, Bowman and Busch over the top Toyota drivers of Reddick, Bell, and Hamlin this weekend.

Bet: Chevrolet (+120)

Team of Race Winner

• Hendrick Motorsports (+150)
• Joe Gibbs Racing (+350)
• 23XL Racing (+375)
• Team Penske (+375)
• Trackhouse Racing (+1500)
• RFK Racing (+2000)
• Richard Childress Racing (+2500)
• Spire Motorsports (+2800)
• Wood Brothers Racing (+4000)

This prop bet provides us with a great opportunity to hedge our bets with our race winning prediction. In my list of Top 5 drivers for the Straight Talk Wireless 400 race, I had two Hendrick Motorsports drivers with Larson and Byron. For my Top 10 best bet, I picked their teammate Elliott.

So, I am high on Hendrick’s drivers this weekend. However, we’re getting great betting value with Joe Gibbs Racing. If you noticed, I also had two JGR drivers in my Top 5 with Bell and Hamlin.

That duo comes in with the 5^th and 6^th best betting odds behind Larson, Reddick, Blaney and Byron. Yet, Bell and Hamlin have combined for four wins, eight Top 5s, 16 Top 10s, and three poles in 25 total Miami appearances. Additionally, Bell leads the field with an 8.8 average finish, while Hamlin is 4^th with a 10.5 average finish.

Although I took Byron to win this race, I really like a JGR to contend for the checkered flag as well.

Bet: Joe Gibbs Racing (+350)