On Sunday, July 13, NASCAR’s Cup Series heads to the road course of Sonoma Raceway for the Toyota Save Mart 350. This marks the 20^th race of the regular season and the third round of the In-Season Challenge.

Last weekend, Shane van Gisbergen left Chicago having swept the Xfinity Series race and the Grant Park 165 Cup Series event. If you missed the Chicago Street Races last weekend, we’ve got a full breakdown of the NASCAR results for both events.

Van Gisbergen comes into this weekend’s race as the odds-on favorite to win. He’s followed by Kyle Larson, Michael McDowell, Ty Gibbs and William Byron at the top NASCAR betting sites.

In addition to the goal of winning the race, the mid-season tournament enters its third round where there are only eight drivers left. Surprisingly, most of the top Cup drivers have been eliminated after the first two rounds.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR Sonoma odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Toyota Save Mart 350 predictions for this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series event at Sonoma Raceway.

Toyota Save Mart 350 Race Profile

Sonoma Raceway has been part of the Cup Series calendar since 1989. This venue is a unique road course unlike any other race on the calendar. The asphalt raceway features 12 turns on what is described as a hilly course with a total elevation change of 160 feet.

Sunday’s Toyota Save Mart 350 breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 218.9 miles
• Total Laps: 110 laps
• Stage 1: 25 laps
• Stage 2: 35 laps
• Final Stage: 50 laps

The Toyota Save Mart 350 will air live on TNT beginning at 3:30pm ET.

Previous Toyota Save Mart 350 Winners

Jeff Gordon holds the record for the most wins at Sonoma Raceway with five. Martin Truex Jr. retired in second place with four wins. Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson are the only active drivers with more than one win at this track. Larson is the defending race winner.

The following is a list of the most recent winners:

• 2024: Kyle Larson
• 2023: Martin Truex Jr.
• 2022: Daniel Suarez
• 2021: Kyle Larson
• 2020: Cancelled Due to Covid
• 2019: Martin Truex Jr.
• 2018: Martin Truex Jr.
• 2017: Kevin Harvick
• 2016: Tony Stewart
• 2015: Kyle Busch

Chevrolet holds the record for the most manufacturer wins with 14. Hendrick Motorsports, who Jeff Gordon drove for, and who Larson drives for, has eight wins. Joe Gibbs Racing is second with six wins.

Toyota Save Mart 350 Betting Odds

Check out the latest Toyota Save Mart 350 odds:

It’s no surprise that Shane van Gisbergen is the odds-on favorite to win this race. He’s established himself as the best road course driver in the Cup Series, having taken that crown from Chase Elliott.

The surprise comes with how far behind Elliott and Allmendinger are with the sportsbooks. Both drivers are highly skilled road racers.

Continue reading below to see my breakdown of the betting favorites along with provided some value plays and a longshot driver. You can also compare my picks with the best handicappers.

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Toyota Save Mart 350 Favorites

The following drivers are considered by oddsmakers to be the odds-on favorites to win the Toyota Save Mart 350:

Shane van Gisbergen +150

• Standings: 27
• Win: 2
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 3

Shane van Gisbergen swept the road races in Chicago last weekend. In regards to the Cup Series, it was SVG’s second win of the season. He won at Mexico City last month, which is another road race.

The only other road race on the calendar so far, was COTA in the spring. SVG finished 6^th in that event. So, if you are keeping score, then you will see that van Gisbergen has two firsts and a 6^th, which is a 2.33 average finish in road races this season.

He didn’t compete in the Cup Series event last year at Sonoma. However, he did compete in the Xfinity Series’ second ever race at Sonoma and SVG won that event.

He’s clearly the man to beat this weekend!

Kyle Larson +500

• Standings: 3
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 9
• Top 10: 12

Kyle Larson might just be one of the only two or three drivers that have a real shot at upstaging SVG on Sunday. In 10 Sonoma starts, Laron has two wins, two Top 5s, four Top 10s and a 13.0 average finish. He’s won two of the last four races at this track and has a 6.25 average finish over that span.

In the other road races this year, Larson was 32^nd at COTA, 36^th at Mexico City, and 13^th at Chicago. Sonoma is really the only road course where Larson has had any success at. Can he call on that past success to upset SVG this weekend?

Michael McDowell +1000

• Standings: 23
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 1
• Top 10: 2

Michael McDowell is not usually a driver found in the favorites section of a race. And, yet, here he is. This is largely due to his 5^th at Mexico City and 11^th at COTA this season. Unfortunately, he ran into some issues at Chicago last weekend and didn’t finish the race.

McDowell has just two Top 10s this season and needs a win to make the Playoffs. I don’t see that happening, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he snuck his way into the Top 10 this Sunday. He has three straight Top 7 finishes at Sonoma and was runner up last year.

McDowell’s Top 5 odds of +180 seem more appealing than his race-winning odds or his Top 10 odds (-175). But it also feels a bit too risky for me.

Ty Gibbs +1200

• Standings: 19
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 4

Ty Gibbs ran well at Mexico City (11^th) and was runner up at Chicago last weekend. He has five straight Top 14 finishes with two Top 3s over that span.

However, Gibbs has just four Top 10s this year, needs a win to get into the Playoffs, and has never finished higher than 18^th in his two Sonoma starts.

His Top 10 odds of -160 offer no value. And, I don’t trust him enough to wager on a Top 5 finish or to win the race. So, I would fade Gibbs this weekend.

William Byron +1400

• Standings: 1
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 10

William Byron’s lead in the driver standings is just 13 points over his teammate Chase Elliott. He’s had a rough stretch over the last month with four finishes of 27^th or worse in the last five weeks. The last two races saw Byron score his first DNFs of the season.

In six Sonoma starts, Byron has just one Top 10 finish and four results of 19^th or worse. Byron has the potential to win on just about any given weekend. Unfortunately, I wouldn’t count on that talent to succeed this Sunday. Fade Byron as he would be lucky to crack the Top 10.

Chris Buescher +1400

• Standings: 11
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 10

Chris Buescher was 7^th at COTA, 10^th at Mexico City and 18^th at Chicago. That’s an 11.6 average finish in the three road races so far this season.

At Sonoma, Buescher has the third best average finish at 12.8. He’s scored three consecutive Top 5s and was third in this race last year. He also led laps in two of the last three races.

Buescher has -160 Top 10 odds, but offers some appeal with his +250 Top 5 odds. I don’t see Buescher winning the race, but a flier on a Top 5 finish is something to consider.

Chase Elliott +1400

• Standings: 2
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 6
• Top 10: 10

Chase Elliott has never won at Sonoma. However, he leads the field with an 11.1 average finish. Elliott has four straight Top 8 results. Furthermore, he has four Top 5s and six Top 10s in eight starts at this track.

Additionally, Elliott was 4^th at COTA, 3^rd at Mexico and 16^th at Chicago. So, he’s shown some strong results on road courses this year.

I love his value to win the race. Yet, a Top 5 finish at +250 odds is highly appealing to me, as well. Elliott is one of the drivers that I think can give SVG and Larson a strong run for the checkered flag.

Tyler Reddick +1400

• Standings: 5
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 7

Tyler Reddick is the odds-on favorite to win the In-Season Challenge. However, I wouldn’t rush to bet on the #45 car this weekend. Reddick has one Top 10 in four Sonoma starts. He also sports a 23.8 average finish with two results of 33^rd or worse.

Reddick has been sneaky good this year at road races this year with a third at COTA and Chicago. He was 20^th at Mexico, which drops him to an 8.6 average finish in road races this season.

With that said, I think Reddick will be lucky to score a Top 10 finish this Sunday. His Top 10 odds are listed at -150, which doesn’t offer enough reward for the risk.

The Best Toyota Save Mart 350 Betting Value

The following drivers are my NASCAR picks for the best betting value in the Toyota Save Mart 350:

Ross Chastain +2200

• Standings: 8
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 9

In five starts at Sonoma, Ross Chastain has one Top 5 and four Top 10s. He sits second with an average finish of 12.4. Chastain has posted four straight Top 10 results and was 5^th last year.

The Trackhouse Racing driver sits 8^th in the standings and was 12^th at COTA, 16^th at Mexico City and 10^th last weekend in Chicago.

The #1 car has shown decent success on road courses this year and at Sonoma in the past. Where he offers the most value is with his Top 10 odds of +100. For a driver that’s scored four consecutive Top 10 finishes and has run well at road courses this year so far, I think there’s value with a Top 10 Chastain finish.

Ryan Blaney +2800

• Standings: 7
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 8

Ryan Blaney is not really known for being one of the best road course drivers. However, he’s fared well at Sonoma in the past. Over eight starts, Blaney has one Top 5 and five Top 10s. He was 7^th in this race last year and posts a 15.4 average finish.

Unfortunately, Blaney hasn’t cracked the Top 10 in a road race this season to date. Yet, that could all change this weekend as the #12 car is very capable of scoring a Top 10 finish. His +150 odds to do so, offer plenty of upside for little risk. I like the value with a Blaney Top 10 result.

The Top Toyota Save Mart 350 Longshot

Joey Logano (+4000) is our longshot bet this weekend. In 15 Sonoma starts, he has four Top 5s and six Top 10s with a 13.5 average finish. Logano has posted two Top 5s in the last four races at this track.

The reigning champ has yet to finish in the Top 10 for a road race this season. So, we’re fading his race-winning odds this Sunday, but taking a flier on his Top 10 odds of +250. That’s a 2.5X return on investment for the three-time Cup champ to slide into a Top 10 spot. I like those odds and that kind of return on a driver who usually starts to heat up at this time of the year.

Toyota Save Mart 350 Predictions

After what he did last weekend in Chicago, it’s hard to bet against Shane van Gisbergen this weekend at Sonoma Raceway. SVG is now, the best road course driver in the Cup Series.

The only other drivers that I think have a decent chance of hanging with van Gisbergen are Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott. I love the odds for the Hendrick teammates but prefer to play it safe and take SVG this weekend.

I got cute last weekend and went with the money instead of the safe, smart play of van Gisbergen. I’m not making that mistake this weekend, even though I really like Elliott and Larson.

Bet: Shane van Gisbergen (+150)

NASCAR Toyota Save Mart 350 Prop Bets

Check out the following Toyota Save Mart 350 prop bets:

Either Top 3 Finish At The Toyota Save Mart 350

Since I went with SVG over my other two favorites for Sunday’s race, I decided to take them for this prop bet instead. Not only do I believe that one of these two drivers can contend for the race win, I also think that they both can finish in the Top 3.

Thankfully, we only need one of these two drivers to finish in the Top 3 to win this prop bet. Larson has won two of the last three races here, and Elliott has the best average finish at this track among the field.

Bet: Chase Elliott or Kyle Larson (-120)

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Toyota Save Mart 350

Chase Elliott offers the best bang for your buck in regards to a Top 5 finish. His +250 odds are too good to pass up for a driver that has a 50% Top 5 finishing rate, three Top 5s in the last four races, and leads the field with an 11.1 average finish.

If you throw out his blown engine in the 2019 race, then Elliott has six straight Top 8s for an average finish of 5.1.

Bet: Chase Elliott (+250)

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Toyota Save Mart 350

In the analysis above, I provided a few drivers that would make for solid Top 10 bets including some fliers like Blaney and Logano.

Most of the favorites are listed with odds that offer zero value and more risk than necessary. Ross Chastain does not. In fact, he has a nice balance of results and +100 Top 10 odds that make him a solid play to finish as one of the 10 best cars this weekend.  

Keep in mind, Chastain has the second-best average finish in the Cup Series at 12.4. He also has four Top 10s in five appearances which is an 80% Top 10 finishing rate. By the way, that’s the best among the field.

Other than his first appearances at Sonoma in 2019, Chastain has four consecutive Top 10 results with a 7.25 average finish over that span.

Bet: Ross Chastain (+100)

Winning Manufacturer

• Chevrolet (-330)
• Toyota (+400)
• Ford (+750)

Last weekend, for the Grant Park 165, I made the following declaration:

“This really is an easy one. If you take anyone other than Chevy, then you are out of your mind. It’s not even worth the gamble. There are too many road course specialists like SVG and Allmendinger that drive Chevy along with one of the top team in the Cup Series – Hendrick Motorsports.”

I feel the exact same way about this race. In fact, I’m even more confident in Chevy this Sunday than I was for Chicago last weekend.

Chevy has won three of the last four Cup races and five of the last eight. Chevy has won the last two road races this season (Mexico and Chicago) and had three drivers in the Top 5 for COTA in the spring including the runner up spot.

Chevy has won two of the last three Sonoma races as well. There’s no reason to even think of betting against Chevy on Sunday. The odds aren’t worth the risk.

Bet: Chevrolet (-330)

Team of Race Winner

• Trackhouse Racing (+130)
• Hendrick Motorsports (+230)
• Joe Gibbs Racing (+525)
• Spire Motorsports (+900)
• RFK Racing (+1200)
• 23XI Racing (+1400)
• Team Penske (+1600)
• Kaulig Racing (+2200)
• Richard Childress Racing (+2200)

For me, this race comes down to Trackhouse vs. Hendrick. I took Trackhouse’s SVG to win the race, but I’m going to hedge my bet by going with Hendrick Motorsports in this one. Team Hendrick has the most wins at Sonoma among all racing teams. They have the defending race winner (Larson), and the second-best road course driver in Elliott.

Bet: Hendrick Motorsports (+230)

Winning Car Number

• Over 44.5 (-125)
• Under 44.5 (-105)

With this bet, it’s basically SVG versus everyone else. Well, you can throw in Tyler Reddick for the Over too, but I don’t see the #45 car being a contender for the checkered flag this weekend.

For me, it’s too hard to ignore getting the majority of the field with the Under. You get 14 of the Top 18 drivers in the standings including eight of the Top 10.

Although SVG is the favorite, and rightfully so, anything can happen on the track. So, let’s play it safe here and take the large volume of drivers in the Under betting option.

Bet: Under 44.5 (-105)