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The NBA DPOY Odds and Predictions for the 2026-27 season have one overwhelming favorite: Victor Wembanyama. The San Antonio Spurs star has been quoted between -325 and -350 in recent October markets, with Chet Holmgren around +1100 to +1200 and Ausar Thompson at +2500.
Our prediction is Wembanyama to repeat as Defensive Player of the Year. He became the award’s first unanimous winner last season and opened the new campaign with six blocks against Oklahoma City. However, predicting the winner and finding a profitable wager are different decisions. At the current favorite’s price, our recommendation is to pass rather than place a new futures bet.
Holmgren offers the most interesting alternative, while Thompson has a credible path as an elite perimeter defender. With the season only a few games old, the stronger approach is to compare their chances with the prices and monitor how the race develops.
NBA DPOY Odds and Predictions 2027: Current Favorites
Odds last checked: October 24, 2026. Prices can change. The table reflects a publicly reported October 21 futures board. A separate October 23 market report placed Wembanyama at -350 rather than -325. These are dated market quotes, not a claim that every price remains available today.
| Player | Reported Odds (Oct. 21) | Break-Even Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | -325 | 76.5% |
| Chet Holmgren | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Ausar Thompson | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Scottie Barnes | +4000 | 2.4% |
| Rudy Gobert | +4000 | 2.4% |
| Bam Adebayo | +4000 | 2.4% |
| Evan Mobley | +6000 | 1.6% |
The gap between first and second is enormous. Wembanyama at -325 needs to win the award more than 76.5% of the time for a wager to break even over the long run. At -350, that requirement rises to 77.8%.
Holmgren at +1200 needs to win more than 7.7% of comparable races, while Thompson at +2500 needs to win more than 3.8%. Those are individual break-even percentages. They are not independent estimates of each player’s actual winning probability, and they include the effects of the market’s pricing margin.
For an award decided after an entire regular season, the price matters as much as the player’s talent. Even a defender who looks overwhelmingly likely to win can be a poor futures wager if the line leaves insufficient room for injuries, missed games or a competing candidate’s breakout season.
What Opening Week Tells Us About the DPOY Race
The 2026-27 NBA season opened October 20, and the two shortest-priced DPOY contenders immediately faced each other. Oklahoma City defeated San Antonio 116-104, but both Wembanyama and Holmgren made significant defensive contributions.
Wembanyama recorded six blocks and 13 rebounds, while Holmgren contributed four blocks and seven rebounds. Those performances reinforce why the market places both players at the top of the award conversation. They do not, however, prove that either player will sustain the same production across 82 games.
Holmgren also collected 17 rebounds in Oklahoma City’s 96-84 victory over Denver on October 22. The Thunder have continued to demonstrate strong team defense, giving Holmgren an opportunity to build a convincing case beyond individual blocked shots.
Detroit’s Ausar Thompson opened with 11 points and 11 rebounds in a 121-113 victory over Boston. Thompson’s strongest award argument remains his ability to pressure ball handlers, create steals and disrupt opposing offenses rather than accumulate blocks like the leading centers.
These are useful early observations, but the award should not be handicapped through one or two box scores alone. Opponent quality, defensive assignments, playing time and team performance over several months will reveal far more about whether a challenger is closing the gap.
Victor Wembanyama: The Favorite to Repeat
Why Wembanyama Is the Best Defender
Wembanyama enters the season with one of the strongest defensive résumés in basketball. He averaged 3.08 blocks per game in 2025-26, leading the NBA in that category for the third consecutive season.
His value extends beyond the shots he actually blocks. Wembanyama changes how opponents attack the basket, forcing more difficult attempts and discouraging drives before they develop. San Antonio finished third in defensive rating last season and allowed 10.1 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor than off it.
The league’s voters recognized that impact emphatically. Wembanyama received all 100 first-place votes for the 2025-26 Defensive Player of the Year award, becoming the first unanimous winner in the award’s history.
His defensive production is also part of a broader two-way profile that has placed him among the favorites in the NBA MVP odds and predictions. Recognition in both markets reflects his unusually large influence on San Antonio’s overall performance.
The Biggest Risk: Availability
Wembanyama’s talent is not the main concern for bettors. His availability is. NBA players generally need to reach the league’s 65-game eligibility threshold to qualify for Defensive Player of the Year, subject to the applicable exceptions.
He played 64 regular-season games in 2025-26, with an additional NBA Cup championship appearance counting toward his award eligibility. That allowed him to qualify, but it also shows how close an outstanding season can come to losing eligibility.
At -325, a bettor risks $325 to earn $100 in profit. That is a substantial commitment to an award that will not be decided until the regular season concludes.
Wembanyama could remain the league’s most impactful defender and still fail to win the award because of missed games or a sustained improvement from another candidate. A strong opening performance does not eliminate those risks.
Is the Favorite Worth Betting?
Our decision: pass at -325 to -350. Wembanyama is the most likely winner, but we cannot justify claiming his actual award-winning probability exceeds the approximately 76.5% to 77.8% required by those prices.
The better approach is to monitor his workload, health and defensive impact through the season’s opening months. A future price change could create a more attractive entry, but a shorter number would make an already expensive wager even harder to defend.
Chet Holmgren vs. Ausar Thompson: Best Challengers
Chet Holmgren: The Strongest Alternative
Holmgren finished second in the 2025-26 DPOY voting and averaged 1.9 blocks and 8.9 rebounds across 69 regular-season games. Oklahoma City went 64-18, providing an excellent team-defensive foundation for his individual candidacy.
At +1200, Holmgren is the most interesting challenger from a betting perspective. His combination of rim protection, mobility and defensive responsibility gives him a credible path if Oklahoma City remains near the top of the league defensively.
The Thunder’s broader strength is also reflected in the NBA championship odds and predictions. A strong team season could help Holmgren attract award attention, particularly if his individual impact becomes more visible in defensive efficiency numbers.
Is Holmgren +1200 a Value Bet?
His +1200 price implies a 7.7% break-even probability. The payout offers considerably more upside than Wembanyama’s short odds, and Holmgren has already demonstrated that he belongs among the league’s best defenders.
The difficulty is separating Holmgren from an elite defensive rotation that also includes several other effective defenders. He needs a clear individual impact case, not merely a strong Thunder record, to overtake a healthy Wembanyama.
Betting decision: Holmgren +1200 is our leading alternative to monitor, but not an official wager yet. We want a larger sample of defensive performance before claiming his chances exceed the market’s 7.7% requirement.
Ausar Thompson: The Perimeter Defensive Threat
Thompson offers a different type of DPOY candidacy. He averaged 2.0 steals per game in 2025-26, played 73 games and helped Detroit finish 60-22. He also placed third in the award voting.
Unlike the leading big men, Thompson influences possessions through on-ball pressure, passing-lane disruption and difficult defensive assignments against perimeter scorers. His path is to become such an important part of Detroit’s defensive identity that voters recognize his impact beyond traditional rim-protection statistics.
Thompson’s development is also relevant to the NBA Most Improved Player odds, where his changing role and playing time are separate questions from his established defensive ability.
Does +2500 Offer Enough Upside?
At +2500, a $100 wager would produce $2,500 in profit if Thompson wins. The price requires a success rate above approximately 3.8% to break even.
That makes him intriguing, but the award has generally favored dominant interior defenders. Thompson needs an exceptional season, continued team success and enough recognition for his perimeter assignments to overcome that historical preference.
Betting decision: Thompson is worth following at +2500, but the payout alone is not enough to establish value. We would rather monitor his minutes and Detroit's defensive performance before placing a season-long wager.
ScoresAndStats Betting Takeaway: Holmgren is the most convincing challenger because of his rim protection, team success and runner-up finish last season. Thompson offers a different defensive profile at longer odds. Neither price yet provides enough evidence for an official futures bet.
Other NBA Defensive Player of the Year Contenders
Rudy Gobert and Evan Mobley
Gobert has already won Defensive Player of the Year four times, most recently in 2023-24. He averaged 11.5 rebounds and 1.6 blocks across 76 games last season. His consistency and established rim-protection résumé make him a credible candidate, but at +4000 he still needs a season that changes the current Wembanyama-centered narrative.
Mobley won the award in 2024-25 and remains one of the league’s most versatile interior defenders. He averaged 1.7 blocks and 9.0 rebounds in 65 games last season. His reported +6000 price offers substantial upside, although Cleveland would likely need a particularly strong defensive season for his candidacy to gain momentum.
Scottie Barnes and Bam Adebayo
Barnes combines length, versatility and defensive activity across multiple positions. He played 80 games in 2025-26, averaging 1.5 blocks and 1.4 steals. That availability matters over a full award season, particularly when compared with candidates who have been closer to the minimum-games requirement.
Adebayo’s strengths are less easily captured by blocks and steals. His ability to switch onto smaller players, defend in space and support different defensive schemes makes him important to Miami. However, those contributions need to translate into a compelling season-long case against the league’s leading rim protectors.
Both players have reported prices around +4000. We would not recommend either merely because the odds look generous. At that number, a bettor still needs a defensible reason to believe the player wins more than approximately 2.4% of the time.
Our NBA DPOY Prediction and Betting Strategy
ScoresAndStats prediction: Victor Wembanyama to win the 2026-27 NBA Defensive Player of the Year award. His combination of rim protection, defensive versatility and demonstrated impact on San Antonio makes him the strongest candidate entering the season.
But our betting decision is different: no new DPOY futures wager at the currently reported prices. Wembanyama is too expensive to back without a stronger probability assessment, while the challengers still have meaningful obstacles to overcome.
The market deserves another look after a larger sample of games. For Wembanyama, the key factors are health, defensive efficiency and his progress toward award eligibility. For Holmgren, watch whether his individual contribution becomes more distinguishable within Oklahoma City’s defensive system. For Thompson, monitor playing time, high-level perimeter assignments and Detroit’s team results.
There is no need to rush a season-long wager after opening week. A defender can lead the race today without offering a profitable price, and a longshot can carry an attractive payout without having a sufficiently strong path to winning.
Our approach is to keep Wembanyama as the projected winner, prioritize Holmgren as the main alternative and wait until the market presents a better-supported opportunity. That is a more disciplined decision than committing money simply because the favorite looks difficult to beat.
NBA DPOY Odds FAQs
Who is favored to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year in 2027?
Victor Wembanyama is the clear favorite. Recent October 2026 market reports have listed him between -325 and -350, far ahead of Chet Holmgren at approximately +1100 to +1200.
Who won the 2025-26 NBA Defensive Player of the Year award?
Victor Wembanyama won the 2025-26 award with all 100 first-place votes, becoming the first unanimous winner in its history. Chet Holmgren finished second and Ausar Thompson finished third.
What is the ScoresAndStats NBA DPOY prediction for 2027?
ScoresAndStats predicts Victor Wembanyama to repeat as Defensive Player of the Year. However, the current -325 to -350 favorite’s price is not a recommended wager because it requires a break-even winning probability of approximately 76.5% to 77.8%.
Who is the best alternative to Victor Wembanyama?
Chet Holmgren is the strongest alternative based on his 2025-26 runner-up finish, Oklahoma City’s defensive success and his individual rim protection. His reported +1200 odds are worth monitoring, but ScoresAndStats does not currently recommend a bet.
How many games must a player play to qualify for NBA DPOY?
NBA award eligibility generally requires 65 qualifying games, subject to applicable exceptions and minimum playing-time rules. This creates an important risk for season-long futures wagers, especially on heavily favored players.